What this covers
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said on 29 September 2023 that “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” That all changed on October 7 when Hamas attacked Israel, which unsurprisingly invaded Gaza to destroy Hamas.
After more than six months, it appears to many that Israel is losing its war in Gaza. At the same time, Israel is fighting Hezbollah on its northern border, relations between Jerusalem and Washington are strained, and the International Court of Justice has ruled that a plausible case can be made that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
Meanwhile, there is great danger of escalation across the region, as the fighting between Israel and Iran makes clear. Indeed, there is a possibility the United States, which is already fighting the Houthis, might end up in a war with Iran, which neither country wants.
What might be the lasting consequences of these conflicts? Who will emerge weaker and who stronger? And what does this crisis mean for U.S. foreign policy in the region, Ukraine and East Asia?
Next in our Greater Middle East Debate Series, Bret Stephens will be taking a very different stance on the Israel and Palestinian conflict on 18 June in Sydney and 20 June in Melbourne. Get your tickets: https://www.cis.org.au/event/bret-stephens-2024/
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Mearsheimer argues that Israel is the principal loser from October 7th and subsequent conflicts, having failed to achieve military objectives while losing deterrence credibility and regional standing, while the United States also loses by being drawn into Middle Eastern conflicts that prevent pivot to Asia, and Iran emerges as the relative winner by remaining outside direct conflict while its proxies gain influence.
- Israel failed to defeat Hamas, retrieve hostages, or ethnically cleanse Gaza despite massive military operations and remains stuck in Gaza with no political solution
- Israel's escalation dominance—the cornerstone of its deterrence doctrine—has been undermined by Iran and Hezbollah, evidenced by the April events where Israel needed massive U.S. support and achieved only limited retaliation
- Iran avoided direct escalation while its proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) inflicted damage on Israel and the U.S., and gained alignment with Russia and China, while the U.S. became bogged down defending Israel and unable to pivot to containing China
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Before October 7th, Gaza was a giant open-air prison created when Israel withdrew settlers in 2005 under Ariel Sharon because Gaza was a 'hornet's nest' and Israel wanted to focus on the West Bank. Netanyahu was satisfied managing this situation and actually funded and supported Hamas because Netanyahu opposed a two-state solution while Mahmoud Abbas (Palestinian Authority) favored it, so Netanyahu played Hamas against Abbas.
“Netanyahu was actually very happy with the fact that Hamas was running Gaza... and he was making sure that Hamas was being funded and that Hamas was doing reasonably well now why is that the case because Netanyahu is adamantly opposed to a two-state solution and Mach mdab Bas who runs the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank is in favor of a two-state solution... Netanyahu has done is supported Hamas because we all know Hamas does not want a two-state solution”
Israel's strategic doctrine depends on escalation dominance—the ability to retaliate against any attack with greater force than the initial attack, punishing aggressors so severely that they regret attacking. The 2006 example is that when Hezbollah killed a few Israelis and kidnapped one, Nasrallah said two months later he would never have allowed the attack if he had known the scale of Israeli retaliation.
“what the Israelis believe is that their deterrence depends on escalation dominance escalation dominance that means if somebody whacks me and I whack them back I whack them back harder... the best example of this is in the summer of 2003 Hezbollah... killed a few Israelis and kidnapped an Israeli... the Israelis massively retaliated and nasrala who is the head of Hezbollah said I think two months later nazala said if I had known what the Israelis were going to do in terms of retaliating I would have never allowed the attack”
Israel's strategic position before October 7 appeared strong because Arab state threats (Iraq, Syria, Egypt) had disappeared as military factors and Israeli military superiority was unquestioned, but this masks a new threat from non-state actors with advanced missiles and drones.
“when I was young and the 1956 War took place the 1967 war took place the 1973 War took place these were all conflicts that involved Israel up against Arab states... there's no question that the Israelis fought Wars in 1948... but that's not the threat anymore there's a whole new set of threats called Hamas called Hezbollah called the houthis”
The U.S. cares about having friendly relations with Middle Eastern states because Russia is already competing for influence in the region and China is beginning to move in. The U.S. and Soviet Union once competed in the Middle East, and now the U.S., Russia, and China are all competing, with China building a blue-water navy to project power into the Gulf and dependent on oil from the region.
“the Russians are already there number one and two the Chinese are beginning to move in... the Chinese are building a blue water Navy to project power into the gulf number one number two they depend heavily on oil... the United States doesn't want bad relations with countries in the Middle East that drive them into the arms of the Chinese and the Russians”
Iran and Israel were once allies and had very good relations. Even in the 1990s, Iran was interested in improving relations with the United States. One could argue that if a two-state solution had been achieved, Iran would have reconciled itself to dealing with the Israel-Palestine problem.
“Iran once had very good relations with Israel once had very good relations with the United States and that even in the 1990s the Iranians were interested in improving relations with the United States and one could make an argument that if you had gotten a two-state solution that Iran would have reconciled itself to uh dealing with this problem”
Nuclear weapons do not solve Israel's internal problems. While nuclear weapons provide deterrence against interstate attack, they do not address internal security threats like Hamas or Hezbollah. Moreover, South Africa had nuclear weapons but the apartheid state disappeared, showing that nuclear weapons cannot protect a state facing internal delegitimization.
“the problem is that Israel has an inter internal problem see Tom's point about nuclear weapons applies if you're talking about Iran hitting Israel... but Hamas is not another country Hamas is inside greater isra... and nuclear weapons don't do anything for you in that regard... South Africa was an apartheid state uh and basically that state that existed apartheid South Africa afca disappeared that state had nuclear weapons”
Israel's real goal in Gaza is ethnic cleansing, not just defeating Hamas or retrieving hostages, because ethnic cleansing solves two critical problems: it eliminates the apartheid dilemma by removing the Palestinian population, and it solves the Hamas problem by expelling Hamas along with all Palestinians. Israel is making Gaza unlivable and starving the population to drive Palestinians out.
“the real goal is to ethnically cleanse Gaza... if you cleanse Gaza and you drive all the Palestinians out you drive Hamas out so you solve two of the principal problems you face... you solve the apartheid problem and you solve the Hamas problem... they're making Gaza unlivable... and then finally what they're doing is starving the population”
Historical Israeli narratives about state creation and early history were challenged and largely refuted by a cohort of Israeli scholars known as the 'new historians' (beginning in the late 1980s) who gained access to archives and demonstrated that Israeli foundation mythology misrepresented Palestinian displacement and Israeli intentions.
“you had this group of historians in Israel called the new historians who uh were then young at the time and they got access to the archives and they got access to the records on how Israel was created uh and what they did is they exploded all the myths or almost all the myths about how Israel was created... people began to think differently about Israel”
Iran is much more powerful than its Sunni neighbors because it has a larger population and superior human capital, making a potential full-scale war between Iran and Saudi Arabia (if resources were fully mobilized) a vastly asymmetric conflict favoring Iran, which is why Saudi Arabia sought the Abraham Accords.
“Iran is much more powerful than all of its neighbors it has a very large population and the human C Capital inside of Iran is very impressive right...if you were to look at the potential balance of power between Iran and Saudi Arabia if they were both able to mobilize all their resources it's a Bambi versus Godzilla situation that's why the Saudis are so interested in the Abraham Accord”
Every American president since Jimmy Carter has pushed hard for a two-state solution because American elites believe it is the only reasonable way to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict. The two-state solution is designed to give Palestinians self-determination and create a sovereign Palestinian state.
“every American president since Jimmy Carter has pushed hard on the two-state solution because we think the two-state solution we meaning American Elites think the two-state solution is the only uh reasonable U way to get out of this conundrum... the Palestinians have to be given uh self-determination they they need a sovereign state of their own and this is what the two-state solution was designed to do”
The first Palestinian intifada occurred in 1987, the second in 2000, and these were Palestinian insurrections before October 7th. The October 7th attack, while devastating, is part of a recurring pattern rather than an anomaly.
“what happened on October 7th is really not an anomaly there was the first inapa then there was the second inapa light Ides in early 2000s pardon light Ides in the early 2000s yes 1987 was the first inapa and 2000 was the second inata”
To prove genocide, one must provide evidence of intent and evidence that actions are consistent with that intent. Israeli leaders have made public statements demonstrating genocidal intent, which was documented in the South African case at the International Court of Justice, and Haaretz published an article titled 'The Road to the Hague is Paved with Public Comments by Israeli Leaders.'
“if you want to make the case that Israel is guilty of genocide you have to do two things you have to provide evidence of intent number one and you have to provide evidence that Israel's actions are consistent with the intent... the Israeli leaders across the board including Benjamin N Net after October 7th said all sorts of things that in my opinion demonstrated genocidal intent this was documented in the uh the South African cases”
Replacing Netanyahu will not change Israeli policy toward Gaza or Palestine because Netanyahu and his war cabinet, along with most of the Israeli national security elite, agree with the current policies. Liberal American Jews who believe Netanyahu is an anomaly and that replacing him would allow Israel to make peace are mistaken.
“it's quite clear that Netanyahu and his War cabinet and most of the National Security Elite in Israel today agree with uh Israeli policy under Netanyahu uh so it it does change anything it wouldn't change any anything it it would change hardly anything”
Israel is defined as an apartheid state because: Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank have no voting rights and no self-determination; Palestinians in pre-1967 Israel have voting rights but lack equal civil rights; Israel has no constitution partly because enshrining equal rights would require treating Palestinians and Jews equally.
“the only Palestinians who can vote are the Palestinians in uh green line Israel the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank cannot vote... the Palestinians in Israel do not have equal rights... Israel is not a liberal democracy... the Palestinians don't have equal rights... Israel does not have a constitution... they can't go too far down that road because they don't want equal rights they want a Jewish State not a state where Palestinians and Jews are equal in number and have equal rights”
The United States is also a loser in these Middle Eastern conflicts because the U.S. interest is in having peace in the Middle East so it can pivot to East Asia. The most serious threat on the planet is China, and the U.S. must contain China, but cannot pivot to Asia because it is pinned down in Ukraine and the Middle East.
“from the American point of view the most serious threat on the planet is China the United States has to contain China we have to Pivot to Asia we can't pivot to Asia because we're pinned down in Ukraine and now we're pinned down in the Middle East”
The U.S. and Israel (with pressure from Israel) withdrew from the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the nuclear agreement the Obama Administration negotiated with Iran. As a consequence, Iran resumed enriching uranium, and this withdrawal from the agreement has incentivized Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.
“we with pressure from the Israelis we the Americans pulled out of the jcpoa that was the nuclear agreement that the Obama Administration crafted with Iran... what happens when you bomb their Embassy and then you get in a tit fortat fight with them on April 14th and April 19th is you give them an incentive to get nuclear weapons”
Even prior to October 7, the Middle East was not as peaceful as former US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan claimed; the pre-October 7 'peace' involved active Israeli operations, military occupation, and proxy conflicts, not genuine stability.
“we haven't seen the Middle East this peaceful for a long time... he was very happy happy about that and it made perfect sense from an American point of view but that went away very quickly on October 7”
Israel today controls everything between the river and the sea—what is called Greater Israel—which comprises Greenline Israel (pre-1967 borders), Gaza, and the West Bank, with approximately 7.3 million Palestinian and 7.3 million Israeli Jewish inhabitants creating rough demographic equality between the two populations.
“Israel today is what I would call Greater Israel Israel controls everything between the river and the CA... inside greater Israel there are roughly 7.3 million Palestinians and roughly 7.3 million Israeli Jews there is rough equality between the two sides”
The Biden administration is deeply committed to finding a solution to the Gaza conflict but is unable to pressure Israel because the Israel Lobby constrains American decision-makers, as Mearsheimer and Walt documented in their book on the subject.
“the Biden Administration to its credit is deeply committed to trying to figure out how to solve this one...the problem we face is we can't get the Israelis to go along with us...with regard to to the United States putting pressure on Israel Steve Walt and I wrote this book on the Israel Lobby...and there's no way any American government can put significant pressure on Israel”
Sanctions against Iran are not working as effectively as they once did and have weakened, which further strengthens Iran's position.
“the sanctions against Iran are not working the way they once were they have weakened”
Hezbollah in the North is shelling Northern Israel in support of Hamas, forcing 60,000 to 100,000 Israelis from northern Israel to relocate to the center of the country, and Hezbollah has committed to continuing this campaign until the Gaza war ends. Additionally, the Houthis have now begun launching missiles at Israel.
“Hezbollah in the North in support of Hamas has been shelling Northern Israel and there are somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 Israelis from the northern part of Israel who have had to move into the Center of Israel on a temporary basis... Hezbollah has said that until this all ends in Gaza they're going to continue to fight the Israelis”
The Abraham Accords (a quasi-alliance between the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia) have collapsed because of what is happening in Gaza. This is not in the U.S., Israel's, or Saudi Arabia's interest.
“you all know about the Abraham Accords the Abraham Accords were were was where the United States was recently trying to get Israel Saudi Arabia and the United States all together in a sort of Quasi Alliance this is all gone by the boards now because of what's happening in Gaza”
Israel has become a pariah state in ways it never was in the past. University campuses and college campuses globally show evidence of Israel's reputation being badly tarnished. South Africa brought a case before the International Court of Justice and the ICJ found there is sufficient evidence to think Israel might be committing genocide, and 56% of Democrats in the U.S. believe Israel is committing genocide according to polling.
“it has effectively become a pariah State uh in ways that it never was in the past... if you look at what's happening in the United States and all across the world on University campuses and college campuses this is just evidence that Israel's reputation has been badly tarnished... if you look at polls inside the United States it's truly remarkable how many people especially Democrats believe that Israel is engaged in genocide... 56% of all Democrats think that Israel is committing genocide”
Israel no longer has escalation dominance with respect to Iran or Hezbollah. Israel cannot shut down the Hezbollah conflict on its northern border despite hitting Hezbollah very hard, while Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets and missiles that will only grow in number, limiting Israel's options. With Iran, the April 1st-April 19th exchange (embassy bombing, Iranian retaliation, Israeli counter-retaliation) demonstrates lack of escalation dominance.
“the Israelis no longer have escalation dominance viav Iran or viav Hezbollah they cannot shut down the conflict with Hezbollah on their northern border... Hezbollah has 150,000 rockets and missiles and those numbers will only grow... with regard to Iran I describe to you what happened April 1st April 14th April 19th that is not escalation dominance”
The United States and Iran secretly coordinated through intermediaries (Oman) before Iran's April 14th attack to ensure the Iranian response was limited, avoided populated areas, targeted only one or two military sites, and was predictable so neither side would escalate beyond control. Both the U.S. and Iran actively sought to prevent escalation.
“the United States and Iran work together through intermediaries because we don't have direct relations we work together through intermediaries to make sure that the Iranian attack is limited that we see coming beforehand... we make it clear that we want the Iranians not to hit any populated areas... we and the Iranians agree that it will be a limited attack”
The Republican party is clearly more pro-Israel than the Democratic party. However, because the Israel Lobby influences both parties' elites, there are no significant differences between Republicans and Democrats on Israel policy—it is 'Tweedledee and Tweedledum.'
“the Republican party is clearly more pro-israel than the Democrat Party correct yeah but even there because of my point to Tony about the lobby right... the Democratic party Elites the people who run the country they're you know no different than the Republicans right it's tweetle D and tweetle dum”
Social media and the internet have been catastrophic for Israel's ability to control narratives. While Israel still has significant influence over mainstream media (Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Washington Post), TikTok is described as 'an utter nightmare' for Israel because videos of Israelis committing atrocities against Palestinians reach a massive audience, and Israelis themselves film these actions and post them online.
“Tick Tock is a nightmare for Israel it's it's an utter nightmare... the Israelis are filming themselves doing absolutely horrible things to to the Palestinians and then putting it on the Internet it's just hard to believe”
Iran is the winner in the October 7th aftermath and April Iran-Israel-U.S. events because Iran has remained mostly on the sidelines while its proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, and militias in Iraq and Syria) are doing very well fighting against both Israel and the U.S.
“they have been able except for April 14th to remain on the sidelines and they are using their proxies... to great effect because as you know the Iranians are allied with Hamas they're allied with Hezbollah they're allied with the houthis... they have been able to stay out of the fight yet see their proxies do very well”
Israeli media and leadership regularly discuss ethnic cleansing as a policy option, making it clear that ethnic cleansing is not a taboo topic in Israeli discourse.
“if you read all sorts of Israeli media they talk about ethnic cleansing all the time and it makes perfect sense if you think about it”
Trump is likely to pursue policies toward Europe and NATO that are significantly different from Biden's if elected, wanting to reduce NATO commitment, viewing European allies as free-loaders, and seeking better relations with Putin. However, the Deep State structural forces will constrain Trump's ability to implement these changes.
“Trump he really uh wanted to throw NATO down the toilet bowl he has no use for NATO he thinks their European allies are Free Loaders... he'd like to get rid of them and uh he likes Putin... he is now determined if he wins to not let that happen again”
Mearsheimer believes that on foreign policy grounds, whether Trump or Biden wins the U.S. election, the outcomes will be substantially similar because structural forces constrain leaders, particularly in East Asia and the Middle East where 'the die is cast.'
“I think that whether Trump or Biden wins it won't matter that much on the foreign policy front uh I think the die is cast here certainly in East Asia I think the die is cast in the Middle East”
The United States is deeply involved in defending Israel not just militarily but politically through coordinated intelligence efforts with Iran and Oman to manage escalation, demonstrating Israeli dependency on US support for even supposedly achieved victories.
“when the Iranian attack comes a hotline an informal hotline is set up between the United States and Iran via Oman because both the Iranians and the Americans want to keep this one under control... the Americans are deeply involved in defending Israel you all remember everybody talked about how the jordanians the Saudis the French the British the Americans the Israelis they were all involved in dealing with this attack”
The world has fundamentally changed since October 7th in ways that are not good for either Israel or the United States, ending the previous period where both countries appeared to be in commanding strategic positions.
“it's quite clear that the world has changed in ways that are not good for either Israel or the United States...before October 7th just in the case of the Israelis before October 7th it looked like they were in the cat bird seat”
Israel is stuck in Gaza because it has chosen to stay there militarily, and they understand this is a choice, but there is no clear political endgame or plan for Palestinian governance after Israeli forces withdraw. Israeli military commanders are constantly complaining that Netanyahu has not given them any sense of what the final political settlement is going to look like.
“they have said they're not leaving Gaza right they're going to stay there... IDF military commanders are constantly complaining these days that Netanyahu doesn't give them any sense of what the final political settlement's going to look like... the reason there's no endgame the reason they're not talking about how they're going to administer a Palestinian dominated Gaza is because they want the Palestinians out”
By December 2023, Mearsheimer changed his assessment from concluding that Israel was not committing genocide to concluding that Israel is engaged in genocide, based on the pattern of killing and the inability to drive Palestinians out forcing increased violence.
“in the beginning right there was all sorts of talk about genocide and I was on the record publicly is saying this is not a genocide but after December I changed my mind on that I think the Israelis are now engaged in genocide and what's happened here is because they have been unable to get the Palestinians out they've had to increase the amount of killing that they do”
Iran is enriching uranium up to 60% purity. To have weapons-grade uranium requires 90% enrichment, which is easy to achieve from 60%. Mearsheimer estimates Iran could have enough fissile material for three bombs in about six weeks, and it would take about six months to build three bombs, after which Iran would need to develop delivery capability.
“the Iranians are now enriching Uranian up to 60% and you know you have to enrich uranium up to 90% to have enough to have it uh capable of being turned into a bomb and it's very easy to get from 60% to 90%... Iran could have enough phys material for three bombs in about 6 weeks... I think it would take probably about six months to build three bombs”
The U.S. wanted peace in the Middle East before October 7th (as evidenced by Jake Sullivan saying a few weeks before October 7th that 'we haven't seen the Middle East this peaceful for a long time'), and this situation was beneficial to the U.S. because it meant the U.S. was not pinned down in the Middle East.
“Jake Sullivan said a few weeks before October 7th we haven't seen the Middle East this peaceful for a long time and he was very happy happy about that and it made perfect sense from an American point of view”
The Reagan Administration put pressure on Israel in 1982 when Israel invaded southern Lebanon, withholding warplanes and cluster munitions. However, this example is isolated and ineffectual, and no president has been able to put meaningful pressure on Israel due to the Israel Lobby.
“the Reagan Administration put pressure on uh Israel and uh prime minister bigan when they invaded Souther Lebanon... Mr Reagan used the power of us arms several times to influence Israeli War policy... the there you could point to one or two instances uh back in the distant passed where the United States put some pressure on Israel... he failed it went nowhere right no president has been able to put mean”
Iran has for the first time ever been able to launch missiles and drones from its own territory, hit Israel directly, and Israel barely retaliated. This is a historic achievement for Iran and a major blow to Israeli deterrence.
“Iran got away with whacking Israel this is the first time that Iran has ever been able to launch missiles and drones from its own territory hit Israel and Israel barely retaliated Iranians are probably feeling good about that as they should”
Joe Biden withheld 3,500 bombs from Israel and faced immediate backlash from Israel Lobby supporters like Brett Stevens at the New York Times. Biden is afraid to put pressure on Israel because he is running for re-election and the Israel Lobby will punish Democratic politicians who are too critical of Israel.
“Joe Biden is not going to put meaningful pressure on the lobby Joe Biden you understand Joe Biden wants to win the election this coming November and if Joe Biden gets tough on Israel you'll see what Brett you'll have Brett Stevens ass here ask Brett Stevens he wrote a big column as soon as soon as Joe Biden told Israel he was holding up these extra bombs... all sorts of supporters of Israel told Joe Biden in no uncertain terms you want to remember you're up for re-election and we won't forget”
Israel will not be able to defeat Hamas militarily because Hamas keeps coming back. Israel has deployed forces to Northern Gaza to deal with Hamas resurgence, and the New York Times and Wall Street Journal regularly report that Hamas is 'almost impossible to defeat.'
“they're not going to crush Hamas and if you read the newspapers carefully every day you will see that Hamas has come back to life in Northern Gaza and the Israelis have now sent military force into Northern Gaza to deal with Hamas the New York Times And The Wall Street Journal today have articles dealing with the fact that Hamas is almost impossible to defeat”
Approximately 500,000 Israelis left Israel after October 7th. In addition, many Israelis are applying for Polish citizenship and Polish passports to create an escape route, and similar patterns exist with other European countries.
“immediately after October 7th 500,000 Israelis left the country... I was talking to somebody who is in the Polish foreign policy establishment the other day and he was telling me you'd be amazed at how many Israelis are applying for a a Polish uh uh a pardon citizenship yeah polish citizenship uh so they can have a Polish passport”
The running joke around Jerusalem is that Joe Biden, after being strongly supportive of Netanyahu post-October 7th, is now seriously invested in the two-state solution because he is concerned about losing Michigan and Pennsylvania (high Arab-American population states) in the upcoming election.
“the running joke around Jerusalem is that having been strongly supportive of Netanyahu after October 7 Joe Biden is seriously invested in the two-state solution Michigan and Pennsylvania okay”
Mearsheimer cites Jonathan Greenblat (head of the Anti-Defamation League) discussing TikTok as 'a disaster' for Israel in a phone call that was recorded and made public on the internet.
“there's this famous conversation uh that you can get on the internet of Jonathan greenblat who who is the head of the Anti-Defamation League the ADL... he's on the phone talking to somebody and it's you know there's a video of it and he's talking about Tick Tock and uh it's just a disaster for Israel”
Mearsheimer has no solution for the Israel-Palestine problem and believes the situation is 'categorically depressing.' When asked what he would do to fix the problem, he responds that he has no idea.
“if anybody asked me in the question answer period what would I do to fix this problem I can tell you what the answer is now I have no idea let's be very clear on this categorically depressing”