What this covers
In this episode, we’re joined by the brilliant and always-provocative Doomberg 🐔💡 Known for slicing through political and energy-market noise with surgical precision, Doomberg unpacks the seismic shifts rippling across the globe following the U.S. election.
From the resurrection of "Drill, Baby, Drill" to the strategic chessboard of Big Tech’s nuclear ambitions, Doomberg delivers their signature contrarian takes on the interplay of energy, geopolitics, and the economy. Are we entering an era of “energy independence” under Trump 2.0, or is the green agenda facing its biggest existential test yet?
Key Topics We Cover:
📉 Why "Drill, Baby, Drill" might spell doom for energy equities but a windfall for supply. ⚛️ The real path forward for nuclear energy in a tech-driven future. 🛢️ How America’s hydrocarbon bounty could reshape foreign policy—and why Europe should brace itself. 🤝 The shifting power dynamics in BRICS and why Brazil’s Lula might be playing 4D chess. 🌐 Why geopolitics is veering toward a dangerous game of brinkmanship across Taiwan, Israel, and Ukraine.
Best Quote Alert: "Industrial might is a derivative of energy abundance. Let’s rebuild domestic industry. Energy is life; the absence of it is death." – Doomberg
Whether you’re an energy market junkie, geopolitical observer, or just someone who enjoys no-nonsense insights wrapped in green chicken wisdom, this is the episode you can’t afford to miss!
Hit PLAY now to dive into one of the most insightful energy and geopolitical discussions of the year!
📌 Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 3:45 - Trump’s Return: What it Means for Energy 15:30 - Big Tech’s Nuclear Gamble 23:00 - BRICS, Brazil, and the U.S. Pivot to the Western Hemisphere 35:00 - Middle East Flashpoints: Israel vs. Iran 45:00 - Taiwan’s Energy Crisis and Lessons from Germany
Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications for more hard-hitting conversations.
#EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #Doomberg #TrumpEnergyPolicy #BigTech #NuclearPower #GreenEnergy #OilAndGas #BRICS #AdvisorAnalyst
📢 Share your thoughts in the comments below—what's your take on the future of energy under Trump? 👇
Source description (no synthesized summary yet).
Doomberg argues that Trump's election reshapes geopolitical and energy dynamics fundamentally: it is bearish for energy equities but bullish for energy supply through deregulation; the US must pivot to energy-independent isolationism in the Western Hemisphere rather than hawkish interventionism; and the emerging multipolar world will challenge dollar hegemony unless the US recognizes its energy superpower status and restructures foreign policy accordingly.
- Trump's deregulation will increase oil and gas drilling but hurt producer equities; data center colocation will move offshore to avoid grid strain and consumer backlash
- Russia will win in Ukraine due to superior logistics and production capacity; escalation with Iran or China risks nuclear confrontation the US cannot win
- Energy is the true backbone of national power; Taiwan's 98% import dependency and Germany's nuclear shutdown expose catastrophic policy failure driven by incompetence, not malice
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Mutually assured destruction scenarios are metastable equilibria; they work historically (US-USSR for decades) but can be disrupted by provocateurs who pull 'bricks from the bottom' of the Jenga tower; in MAD situations, even minor provocations can collapse the equilibrium and cause total war.
“situations are metast stable and provocators on both sides can often disrupt them and pull a few bricks from the bottom and C cause the whole Jenga Tower to collapse but the equilibrium state in a mad situation is dayon historically it worked between the ussar and the US for decades right right with a few near misses um you know underreported near misses that that are now known dorians”
The US should reshape foreign policy around the fact that it is now an energy superpower with abundant fossil fuel supplies; the old atlanticist worldview was based on false belief in Peak Oil and Hubbert's Peak; this belief motivated global military projection for resource access; the false doctrine of Peak Oil has led to disastrous Middle East interventions.
“I have a deeper philosophy on this which is much of the current atlanticist thinking of the US and the UK and the Atlantic and the neocons arose from and was formed during a time when the US believed Peach oil was real and that hubbert's Peak was real that the US and the UK were terminally short energy and needed to go around the world with a big military to fight it those days are over let's change our worldview we don't need to we're swimming at sheep hydrocarbons um like let's change our worldview we don't need to do that anymore and I think Peak cheap oil is a very dangerous myth that has shaped US foreign policy with disastrous outcomes”
Energy is life; absence of energy is death; this is a stone truth most people only appreciate during extended blackouts; West is unprepared for coming blackouts due to misaligned energy policy and grid fragility
“so this is the inefficiency in the market that we have happily exploited which is very few people understand energy and its critical role in the economy in geopolitics uh in wars in life and in death look energy is life and the absence of energy is death like th those are two um Stone we only really feel it when there's an extended blackout right which are coming by the way”
In a mutually assured destruction scenario, the equilibrium state is tense day-to-day stalemate; historical examples (U.S.-USSR) show this can hold for decades with nuclear weapons; the risk is that provocateurs on either side disrupt the equilibrium by removing key restraints
“in a mutually assured destruction scenario however unpleasant they taunt might be politically It's usually the equilibrium State um because rink brinksmanship when the threat is existential is different”
Nuclear weapons fundamentally change game theory because nations with nuclear capability must be treated categorically differently; comparisons of Putin to Hitler and WWII to current conflict are inapt because WWII outcomes would differ if all parties had nuclear weapons; nuclear proliferation must be resisted but nuclear powers must be negotiated with, not contained.
“like these comparisons of Putin to Hitler and Chamberlain World War II look if if the British and the French and the Germans all had nuclear weapons World War II would have turned out differently like one of the reasons why you want nuclear weapons to not proliferate is because once a country becomes a nuclear power you have to treat them differently right um that's why we're opposed to the development of nuclear weapons in Iran well if they have created a synthetic nuclear bomb basically uh not with the same radioactive follow but with the same Devastation to Israeli Society then maybe mad is the equilibrium State”
Destruction of Ukrainian electricity grid infrastructure by Russia constitutes a war crime under Article 147 of the UN Charter, and this will cause a migration crisis in Europe by emptying Ukraine of people.
“the people of Ukraine are by far the biggest victims of this tragedy um we believe that wanting destruction of the Ukrainian electricity grid it is tan himount to a war crime under article 147 of the UN Charter and I think um but they're going to do it anyway and they're going to empty that country of people it's going to cause a migration crisis in Europe”
The Falkland Islands were historically called Fosa; the US almost invaded them during the 19th century Century Humiliation period, which shaped Chinese geopolitical memories and modern policy orientation.
“and then they had the civil war after that and by the way it wasn't always called Taiwan it was called fosa and we almost invaded it um in the Cent humiliation before that yes shaped the the Zeitgeist of Chinese uh policy makers the new the the century”
It is historically unprecedented for the holder of the global reserve currency to be hyperinflating; the U.S. is currently doing this at a rate comparable to early Weimar Germany, sustained by demand for dollars in ways non-reserve-currency nations cannot replicate
“it's the first time in history that I am aware of at least that the holder of the global Reserve currency is hyperinflated I mean it's what we're doing the rate at which we're are printing new cash is consistent with the early days of Yar”
Trump's election is bearish for energy equities in the near term because although it will increase energy supply through deregulation and a smaller regulatory state, the appetite for 'drill baby drill' will flood the market with additional supply, pressuring producer profit margins despite higher production volumes.
“I think um it is bullish for energy Supply um Jo baby drill is not just a cliche I think there will be a huge um pair of scissors taken to the administrative state regulatory regime at the federal level”
The weaponization of US Treasury debt and the US dollar system—as seen in sanctions on Russia—has driven central banks worldwide to accumulate gold as a non-weaponizable reserve asset; China and Saudi Arabia have cut bilateral deals settling oil trades in gold; Shanghai's physical gold exchange window has disrupted traditional gold markets.
“the weaponization of the US treasury debt and the US dollar system and if us treasuries uh and West Western European debt instruments are no longer neutral they can't serve the role as neutral Reserve assets whereas gold can and this is why we saw the run up in Gold we many believe because central banks were accumulating it but there is no yet no workable system now there's all manner of one-on-one deals I I suspect that the Chinese and the Saudis have cut such a deal and that um oil goes to China a lot of goods come to Saudi Arabia and imbalances um get settled in gold and I think Luke Roman's probably done the best job of chronicling this over the years and the development of the Shanghai physical gold exchange window um has really disrupted the gold markets”
TSMC produces essentially all advanced semiconductor chips in the world; any disruption to Taiwan's energy supply would cripple global semiconductor production and thus Nvidia and all AI development.
“there's another reason that the Chinese are going full speed ahead on trying to develop semiconductors and the US is trying its level best to impede their development it's because we need Taiwan they produce basically all of the advanced semiconductor chips in the world like there's be no Nvidia without you know um tsmc um and they need energy to run those foundaries like those those are energy Hogs”
China is building massive military infrastructure on Hainan island in a very short timeframe, including airfields, submarine docking complexes, and mountain-carving for facilities, at a scale reminiscent of major real estate development projects; this demonstrates China's capacity for rapid military buildup and project execution.
“in a very short span of time they've built out a huge military presence on the island and you know just 500 500 yards away from the resort areas where many Chinese tourists go for their holidays is the airfields the military you know the military bases the submarine complex the submarine docking complexes the complex the dry docking the entire Island in a very short span of time has been developed built out they've carved out you know the sides of mountains on the island of of hillsides to make way for the airport military Airbase it is reminiscent of the amount of work that's been done you know in real estate development except that this was China's military industrial complex at work”
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) produces basically all advanced semiconductor chips globally; there would be no Nvidia without TSMC; TSMC's foundries are massive energy consumers; China's strategy includes developing alternative semiconductor capacity to reduce dependence on Taiwan.
“we need Taiwan they produce basically all of the advanced semiconductor chips in the world like there'd be no Nvidia without you know um tsmc um and they need energy to run those foundaries like those those are energy Hogs”
China and Russia have been driven closer together by Western antagonism, and the relationship between Russia, China, and India is now a critical geopolitical bloc; the U.S. failure to exploit the India-China border dispute at the BRICS summit was a missed opportunity
“we've driven them much closer together one of the big geopolitical failures of the war is the relationship between Russia China and India noted with interest that the probably the most important thing that came out of bricks was the the semi dayon between China and India about their border”
The U.S. has not conducted military inventory accounting in a way that would reveal where a $900 billion defense budget is actually going; corporate buybacks and stock repurchases are likely siphoning funds away from actual procurement and production
“where's all where's that 900 billion going I mean let's look inward for a bit um and see where where all that money is going I mean a lot of it's going into stock BuyBacks for the big military industrial complex companies um look yeah Russia's going to win that war”
Electricity prices are deeply subsidized and managed by design such that consumers pay a fixed price far below market value; injecting 3-5% or more electricity demand onto the US grid without price adjustments creates major disruption because electricity demand has extremely high price elasticity.
“what's electricity worth it's worth way more than the average consumer pays for it which is a bit of a mirage because it's a deeply subsidized public good um and so this this rally in the utility stocks was always a bit of a heads scratcher to us because there's no scenario in which Joe sixpack is going to pay 50% more for their electricity through one election cycle”
The US has driven Russia, China, and India closer together through aggressive policy; this is a major geopolitical failure, and the semi-dayan (border agreement) between China and India noted at BRICS represents the opposite of what US policy should have achieved.
“we've driven them much closer together one of the big geopolitical failures of the war is the relationship between Russia China and India noted with interest that the probably the most important thing that came out of bricks was the the semi dayon between China and India about their border which we watch with some interest”
Japan's invasion of China started the wider Asian conflict before Pearl Harbor or the German invasion of Poland; this historical precedent shapes Chinese and Japanese views of World War II and informs contemporary security concerns.
“it started with the invasion of China by by Japan yeah um and that was a very nasty War right and then they had the civil war after that and by the way it wasn't always called Taiwan it was called fosa”
Peak cheap oil is a dangerous myth that has shaped catastrophic U.S. foreign policy; the U.S. has never successfully regime-changed a country such that it ended up more stable, making these interventions both immoral and ineffective
“Peak cheap oil is a very dangerous myth that has shaped US foreign policy with disastrous outcomes I mean um our adventures in the Middle East aren't glorious like name me a country that we regime changed that ended up more stable and not less when we were done”
The political route to power in modern democracies is through pandering to special interests; the last two US elections and elections elsewhere show that electorate will vote for whichever candidate promises to deliver for their interest group; therefore, no systemic reforms can be expected from electoral politics.
“yeah and none of the political choices are very palatable and um if anything the the the la last election in the US and elections elsewhere in the world show that like the way to get elected offices is to to Pander to special interest”
Historical colonialism by Western powers is remembered by the Global South; the US cannot simply act as though this history didn't shape contemporary relationships and anti-American sentiment.
“we can't act as though a colonialism didn't exist I mean the global South remembers it right I mean it like these people have cultural memories they have that's why I read all their propaganda like let's see what they're telling themselves if for no other reason it's an interesting data point”
Trump's election is bearish for energy equities but bullish for energy supply, as a Trump administration will aggressively cut regulatory barriers allowing unconstrained drilling, contrary to EPA discipline under Harris
“I think um it's unquestionably a bearish development for energy equities in our view I think it is bullish for energy Supply um Joe baby drill is not just a cliche I think there will be a huge um pair of scissors taken to the administrative state regulatory regime at the federal level”
The first time in history that the holder of the global reserve currency is essentially hyperinflating (printing money at rates consistent with early Weimar); this dynamic is unprecedented and the outcome is unknowable.
“I don't know it's the first time in history that I am aware of at least that the holder of the global Reserve currency is hyperinflated I mean it's what we're doing the rate at which we're are printing new cash is consistent with the early days of Yar now there's a demand for that cash in ways that countries that aren't the reserve currency you know um can't partake in and so who knows like maybe that's enough but um just I don't know how it ends I it's really a fascinating situation”
Russia will win the Ukraine war because Russian supply lines are 50 miles behind the line of contact while US-Ukraine supply chains run from China to the US to Ukraine, and Russia is outproducing NATO in artillery shells and basic weapons despite Western technological and economic superiority, indicating deep Western institutional incompetence and misallocation of military spending.
“we're fighting a war where our supply chain starts in China comes to the US and goes to Ukraine they're fighting a war where their supply chain is 50 miles behind the line of contact I mean this is this is always Bly”
There is an unspoken civil war within the US national security establishment between the State Department (which wants to escalate in Ukraine by authorizing long-range ballistic missiles) and the Pentagon (which is restraining escalation); Lloyd Austin and the Pentagon have set a line that US soldiers will not fire US weapons into Russia, marking a red line they will not cross.
“there is an unspoken civil war between the state department and the Pentagon over Ukraine and over the Middle East um and all those people are going to get wiped out now about that that that point if you don't mind I'm yeah I think um the state department wants to escalate in Ukraine wants to give Ukraine permission to use longrange ballistic missiles into Russia and the Pentagon does not um I think Lloyd Austin has been the one that put the breakes on all of this”
One reason not to get into wars is you might lose them; the US has lost most of its wars for the past few decades (Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria implicitly); this track record suggests military overreach
“one of the reasons you don't get into Wars is you might lose them um and we've got a pretty strong track record of basically losing Wars for the past few decades”
The destruction of Ukraine's electricity grid constitutes a war crime under Article 147 of the UN Charter, and Russia intends to completely empty the country of people, causing a migration crisis in Europe
“we believe that wanting destruction of the Ukrainian electricity grid it is tan himount to a war crime under article 147 of the UN Charter and I think um but they're going to do it anyway and they're going to empty that country of people it's going to cause a migration crisis in Europe”
Green energy policy doubles the cost of electricity because you need both the intermittent power source (wind/solar) AND storage (batteries) or backup (gas plants running at 15% capacity), creating massive inefficiency compared to baseload power
“there's no scenario in which Joe sixpack is going to pay 50% more for their electricity through one election cycle um and so I think um there's a bit of a mirage because the more people use the more they pay but that's not really a market right you're just paying a fixed price for an underpriced good that is managed that way by Design”
Sanctions on Russia were designed to backfire and did backfire; Russia's main economic problem is now overheating inflation, not contraction, meaning the sanctions strategy has reversed its intended outcome.
“but I remember we were among the first to point out that the sanctions were designed to to back fire and they did they have the Russian economy right now the main problem they have in Russia right now is that the econom is over heating they're worried about inflation um you know and so like it's high”
US interventionism in the Middle East (Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan) has consistently produced worse outcomes than pre-intervention stability; name any country regime-changed by the US that ended up more stable—none exist; these interventions led to radicalization and instability, making the US unpopular in the Global South (7 billion non-G7 people).
“I mean um our adventures in the Middle East aren't glorious like name me a country that we regime changed that ended up more stable and not less when we were done um and so I think you know let's act like an energy superpower industrial might is a derivative of energy abundance let's rebuild domestic industry I know I sound very isolationist I am ol aist I think the the Department of Defense their primary objective should be to defend it's in the name you know I I all these insurrections into Afghanistan Iran or sorry Iraq uh I mean these these wars have yeah Libya they've all they've all led to further radicalization and instability in those countries”
Developing alternatives to the US dollar system is extremely difficult and time-consuming; it took decades to establish the European Union and European currencies; gold-backed alternative currencies face liquidity and acceptability problems; central bank currency swaps in bilateral deals are the most likely mechanism for de-dollarization, not formal BRICS currency.
“developing an alternative the US dollar system is always going to be hard it's always going to take a long time it's nobody wants to hold anybody else's currencies um it took forever to get the European Union up and running it's going to take time and um I you know gold is well off its highs now since then and we still own a lot of it but not as much as we did heading into Kazan”
The incompetence theory better explains Western policy failures than malice; corporate and government leaders are simply not competent, and aspirations to find deep conspiracies underestimate how often mediocre people rise to leadership.
“I remember when I would see what I thought were obviously dumb things coming out of the sea Suite um then I thought to myself you know there must be some room where there's an oracle that knows more than I do that explains the Deep meaning here and then one day I got to pitch the board of directors which has to be the you know the inner Oracle and I I remember leaving that meeting and I could not have been more underwhelmed um I don't know how they got there but it but it wasn't like some of them were great”
Western European nations should focus on rebuilding relationships with Russia and reducing hostile rhetoric rather than confrontation, as European prosperity depends on Russian energy and the current conflict is not sustainable for Europe.
“I think it's the first you're the first people we've talked to since the election and so still like you just working it out but it uh if he could cut honestly if he could stop the war in the Middle East and stop the war in Ukraine he win a Nobel Peace Prize not that they'd ever give it to him”
Western propaganda ('The Economist', 'CNN', 'Washington Post') is as pervasive as Russian/Chinese propaganda; people 'swim in their own propaganda'; sophisticated analysis requires reading all propaganda sources to triangulate toward truth.
“people swim in their own propaganda and and to think that we don't have propaganda here is quite naive right um and so we set about the task of trying to find as many non-traditional sources of raw information that's the great thing about Twitter by the way it's also the challenging thing about Twitter there's still no better destination for a breaking story with where there's people with cameras around right um but you can map the war um there's Pro Ukrainian mappers and there's Russian mappers and there's neutral mappers and everybody has satellites and everybody has sources and seems like all the soldiers are using telegram texting their friends where they are it's a very bizarre War it's the first internet War”
US Department of Defense's primary objective should be defense of the homeland, not global power projection; isolationism as a strategic orientation makes sense for the US given energy abundance and regional superpower status; the US has plenty to do in the Western Hemisphere without entanglement in global affairs that do not serve US interests.
“I think the the Department of Defense their primary objective should be to defend it's in the name you know I I am ol aist I think the the Department of Defense their primary objective should be to defend it's in the name you know I I all these insurrections into Afghanistan Iran or sorry Iraq I mean these these wars have yeah Libya they've all they've all led to further radicalization and instability in those countries yeah it doesn't exactly make us popular in the global South which is again the 7 billion people not living in the G7 um so yeah I mean let's see what Trump does but I like one of the reasons you don't get into Wars is you might lose them and we've got a pretty strong track record of basically losing Wars for the past few decades”
China is an ascending superpower and the US should recognize this and respect it rather than pursue confrontational policies; a multipolar world where the US focuses on the Western Hemisphere and China on Asia is more stable than US attempts to maintain unilateral dominance.
“I think China is an ascending superpower and we should respect that um by the way we got plenty to do in the Western Hemisphere um we got plenty of oil now we got plenty choking on natural gas we don't need to be you know um getting entangled in all of these uh Affairs that it's in nobody's interest that the shipping lanes get um disrupted in the way that we've seen Red Sea for example”
The US has not marked its gold holdings to market prices since the 1970s, whereas the Eurozone marks gold to market quarterly; if the US revalued its gold reserve at sufficiently high prices, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve balance sheets would look much stronger, though this is politically difficult.
“the euro is actually backed by gold right I mean in a way it's not like really publicized a lot but they marked their goal to Market every quarter the US hasn't marked its goal to Market since the 1970s right so yeah this this”
AI data center collocations connected to the grid will be rejected by regulators because the electricity demand spike would make consumer bills unacceptable to voters; instead, off-grid pods with self-contained power sources (natural gas or nuclear) attached directly to data centers will dominate, making the FairChain/Apple colocation rejection actually bullish long-term by accelerating this inevitable transition
“we're pondering panning an open letter to President Trump on energy and one of the five recommendations was the desperate need to reform the NRC the nuclear regulatory um commission I think he'll probably get that done um and I think big Tech just needs Nuclear by the way our view on on AI and nuclear and natural gases that we're going to see off grid um these collocations that are connected to the grid are not going to get approved because AI will put a strain on the average consumer's electricity bill that will be unacceptable”
AI data centers collocated with the grid will face political and regulatory rejection because electricity sold to data centers at market rates will create consumer affordability crises; instead, energy companies will build self-contained, off-grid power-producing facilities (gas or nuclear) attached directly to data centers, bypassing grid approval entirely.
“AI will put a strain on the average consumer's electricity bill that will be unacceptable politicians and also getting Federal approval just takes longer and so I think we're going to see self-contained power producing facilities with data centers attached to them that aren't connected to the grid and Power in the form of either natural gas or uranium goes in the front end and data comes out the back”
Energy is the fundamental basis of national security and power; energy is literally life, and absence of energy is death; understanding energy's critical role in economy, geopolitics, and war is prerequisite to coherent strategy, yet it is the least understood domain by Western policymakers and analysts.
“so this is the inefficiency in the market that we have happily exploited which is very few people understand energy and its critical role in the economy in geopolitics uh in wars in life and in death look energy is life and the absence of energy is death like th those are two um Stone”
The 2008 financial crisis TARP bailout of $700B was considered the largest financial intervention in history; now the US is spending ~$1 trillion per quarter on deficits, making the scale of fiscal expansion routine and normalized.
“I remember I remember just you know the great financial crisis that that $700 billion do T deal bazooka was the biggest thing that had ever happened [1:19:21] in financial you know Financial history and now that's like every week”
Sanctions on Russia backfired by design—the Russian economy is currently overheating with inflation concerns rather than collapsing, demonstrating that one reason to avoid wars is that you might lose them
“we were among the first to point out that the sanctions were designed to to back fire and they did they have the Russian economy right now the main problem they have in Russia right now is that the econom is over heating they're worried about inflation um you know and so like it's high and we one of the reasons you don't get into Wars is you might lose them um and this is where we are”
The EU could solve its debt crisis by revaluing gold at a sufficiently high price on central bank balance sheets; this would improve balance sheet strength without requiring austerity or fiscal reform.
“I think the indebted nations of the West um if they just revalued gold at a high enough price would they're central bank balance sheets would look uh pretty good you know the euro is actually backed by gold right I mean in a way it's not like really publicized a lot but they marked their goal to Market every quarter the US hasn't marked its goal to Market since the 1970s right so yeah”
US fiscal dominance is the critical constraint on the global reserve currency system: the US is borrowing ~$1 trillion every 85 days, federal interest payments exceed $1.2 trillion annually, fiscal spending is 25-26% of GDP in peacetime with full employment and no recession; the long-term bond market will eventually constrain this, but timing is uncertain.
“we our interest payments are up to 1.2 trillion a year we're borrowing a trillion dollars every 85 days um the fiscal spending and what the Washington machine has just grown to 25 to 26% of US GDP it's a reason we're not in a recession that in cheap energy”
Trump will not reduce the federal deficit or government size because he likes 'the numbers to go up' and will extend his 2017 tax cuts, which expire in 2025; rich people resist tax increases; therefore, deficits will expand regardless of which party is in power; there is no political appetite for spending discipline.
“Trump likes the numbers to go up uh I think the long long bond is is you know rates are going higher um I think we are running basically what groman again calls um fiscal dominance right like we our interest payments are up to 1.2 trillion a year we're borrowing a trillion dollars every 85 days um the fiscal spending and what the Washington machine has just grown to 25 to 26% of US GDP ... Trump is is is like he didn't run on a campaign of smaller government really um and and he want extend his tax cuts right I mean they expire in 2025 so that would be the first big political win for Trump um and uh rich people don't want to pay tax and so he's going to cut taxes for the rich”
Ukraine is losing the war; its military front lines have collapsed with high desertion rates, but this has been underreported due to mainstream media corruption and propaganda, whereas independent Twitter-based geolocation and satellite mapping reveals the objective military situation.
“the thing about when you have these sort of um biased sources they can't get too far out the line because then people just stop believing them and so you could get a pretty good average like if the Deep state project which is a pro Ukrainian mapping project who admits that sometimes they don't update their Maps because the Ukrainian defense industry doesn't want them to if they're saying a a town has fallen for example you could be pretty sure that that town has probably Fallen”
Defense and entitlements dominate the federal budget (~7% deficit in peacetime with full employment); other spending cuts are insufficient to address fiscal dominance; the political economy of special interest spending makes cuts infeasible.
“and by the way like a lot of these entitlements are indexed to inflation which is why many people think the government flubs you know fibs on their their inflation data so I don't see the path out like and none of the political choices are very palatable and um if anything the the the la last election in the US and elections elsewhere in the world show that like the way to get elected offices is to to Pander to special interest”
China has a strategic interest in projecting power around its neighborhood (its version of the Monroe Doctrine) and the South China Sea is both strategically important for regional power projection and energy-rich in oil and gas, which creates convergent motivations for Chinese military buildup in the region.
“China wants to project power around its neighborhood um and they have their own version of the Monroe Doctrine um and uh also like the South China Sea is an energy rich oil and gas Rich area Malaysia's an energy superpower for example um and China's short oil you know we did a full Doom Zoom prot talk on called The Year of the Dragon China through the lens of energy where we talked about the South China Sea and if once you sort of look at the South China Sea and then map all of the the oil and gas activity that's going on there it becomes very apparent why the Chinese who are deeply short oil long refining but short oil might want to project a little power down there”
Switching to renewables has doubled electricity costs because intermittency creates two problems: storage (batteries) must be purchased, or natural gas plants must be kept running at 15% capacity as backup—neither is economically rational compared to baseload power.
“switching to you know Green has doubl the cost because not only you know not only do you have this problem with intermittent power you have to store it so you need to bu the batteries or keep natural gas power plants on standby running at 15% capacity as Speaker plants”
The strategy of earning in fiat and saving in real assets (energy, gold, physical commodities) and investing in private opportunities where you can affect outcomes is a rational response to fiscal dominance and currency depreciation risk.
“this is why by the way we earn in Fiat and Save in real assets and and invest privately where we can affect the outcome because you know the Fiat isn't I don't like to sit on a big pile of cash you know”
Taiwan and China's history is complex and nuanced; the 1949 Chinese Civil War is not 'over' in Chinese minds; Western politicians promoting war with China over Taiwan often do not understand Chinese history, Taiwan's actual political divisions, or how Chinese and Russian propaganda interpret Western rhetoric about war.
“when you read the full history of Taiwan and China a it's complicated um B it is way more nuanced than it's often portrayed here um the people of Taiwan have polarized views on the matter that the last presidential election was closely fought um and it's a in China's mind you know the Civil War of 1949 isn't over yet um in a way uh”
Henry Kissinger did substantial damage to South America through CIA operations; Operation Condor overthrew democracies (Allende in Chile) and installed military dictatorships in Argentina and Brazil, shaping the region's anti-American sentiment and democratic constitutions for decades.
“I mean Henry Kissinger did a lot of damage in the in the region if we're being honest right I mean again like we can't just we can't just assume that the rest of the world forgets what the CIA did 1970s shaped the uh Democratic movements of the 80s and in much of South America Operation Condor I think was the name where they overthrew wendia in Chile they helped Institute a military dictatorship in Argentina and Brazil as well”
Lindsey Graham and others advocating for war with Russia, China over Taiwan, or escalation in Iran lack basic understanding of nuclear deterrence; their rhetoric suggests they believe 'nobody ever punches back' which is a dangerous delusion.
“there are people in Washington who honestly believe that nobody ever punches back it's amazing to me um and and so like you count us on a bash Le in the pro peace Camp by the way I mean I have draft eligible children just for starters and by the way if we're going to go to war with Russia shouldn't we have a debate about it in Congress and actually have a vote um it's bizarre to me”
Western government selection processes attract worse candidates than corporate boards because public service entails personal destruction (digging into history and airing dirty laundry), while private sector offers better compensation and privacy; thus government is staffed by people who couldn't or wouldn't succeed in competitive private sectors
“if you're working for the government um until you reach that rotating door I mean who who go who would go on government today like the the personal destruction and the digging into your history and airing all of your dirty laundry during like who who would do that when you could make more money in the private sector and live a happy quiet life”
Iran's October 1 missile strike exposed Israel by demonstrating that if the Iron Dome is less effective than previously believed, Israel has only 10 critical infrastructure sites (5 power plants, 5 water treatment facilities) and cannot defend all against a thousand missiles, creating a mutually assured destruction scenario equivalent to a synthetic nuclear weapon
“I think the Iranian strike on October 1st exposed Israel in a way that is Meaningful and ex stantial as we wrote in our piece October surprise they have basically five power plants and five water treatment facilities that produce a great majority of their electricity and clean water and that's 10 sites that everyone knows where they are and if if the Iron Dome is no longer as prolific as it once was thought to be then that is a that changes the game theory”
Doomberg observed firsthand in corporate board meetings that CEO-level decision-making quality is often shockingly poor; leaders who got to the top demonstrate 'pedestrian intellects' and naive technical understanding, suggesting government incompetence is likely reflects similar dynamics—people who aren't smart being promoted through survival-of-the-least-threatening
“I remember when I was climbing the corporate ladder and when I would see what I thought were obviously dumb things coming out of the sea Suite um then I thought to myself you know there must be some room where there's an oracle that knows more than I do that explains the Deep meaning here and then one day I got to pitch the board of directors which has to be the you know the inner Oracle and I I remember leaving that meeting and I could not have been more underwhelmed um I don't know how they got there but it but it wasn't like some of them were great”
China's military development and strategic positioning in the South China Sea are rational responses to China's need to secure oil and natural gas imports; China is short oil but long refining capacity, making control of sea lanes and energy resources essential to its survival
“China's short oil you know we did a full Doom Zoom prot talk on called The Year of the Dragon China through the lens of energy where we talked about the South China Sea and if once you sort of look at the South China Sea and then map all of the the oil and gas activity that's going on there it becomes very apparent why the Chinese who are deeply short oil long refining but short oil might want to project a little power down there”
Taiwan is 98% dependent on fossil fuel imports, has shut down nuclear capacity down to one reactor, and is therefore indefensible; China's strategy is not amphibious invasion (too difficult) but naval blockade of energy supplies to force Taiwan to capitulate, which would take only 2 weeks
“Taiwan relied on fossil fuels for 91% of its primary energy needs in 2023 and 98% of those fossil fuels were imported um and they've shut down their nuclear power plants they've pulled a full they've gone full Germany on their nuclear reactors um and so they're extremely vulnerable”
The U.S. should recognize that all world leaders pursue interests of their own citizens first; construct trade relationships that are mutually beneficial rather than extractive; help lift people out of poverty; and understand that rich countries rarely go to war
“if we were genuine goodfaith actors and sophisticated diplomats you know and we defang the IMF a little bit and stopped you know getting countries into debt traps and taking all their resources because of it as collateral which again we're seeing the signs of that in Ukraine um you know but I don't expect that to happen by the way I'm saying that's what I would do this this is the policy that I would I would start with a human first policy of American citizens and assume that all of the other leaders of the countries we're dealing with have the same goal in mind for their citizens and we would try to construct trade relationships that were mutually beneficial um you know and help lift as many people out of poverty I look rich you know very rich countries rarely go to war”
China operates at 'China speed'—a tempo of execution far faster than Western governments or corporations; understanding China requires having done business there to appreciate the pace and efficiency of decision-making and project execution, which is categorically different from Western capabilities.
“China operates at what we call China speed and unless you've done business in and around China that it's hard to actually understand just how quickly they get things done and it's it's not surprising but it really exposed it really exposed the extent to which China has built out this launching Point into the well”
The BRICS Kazan summit document did not mention gold and did not produce concrete action on an alternative currency; instead, it created a committee to study a 'unit' (unspecified) that would be backed 40% by gold; this is bureaucratic can-kicking and represents failure to achieve BRICS alternatives to US dollar.
“and when you read the Kazan document I know there's a lot of excitement about it there really is kind of a giant nothing Burger not really much in the way of action there the word gold isn't mentioned in it for example um and then um they're they've agreed to study to write a white paper always a great bureaucratic exercise in can kicking and they're going to report back to the next president of bricks which is oh Brazil”
US military spending of $900 billion per year is being misallocated, with significant portions going to stock buybacks for military-industrial complex companies rather than actual weapons production; this represents systemic corruption and waste that impairs operational capability.
“we have a corrupt military where's all that 900 billion going I mean let's look inward for a bit um and see where where all that money is going I mean a lot of it's going into stock BuyBacks for the big military industrial complex companies”
Being pro-peace and anti-war used to be a liberal political position but has been inverted; Trump and those opposing war are now often cast as hawkish, while Democrats supporting Ukraine escalation are cast as peaceniks, representing a complete inversion of historical left-right alignment on military intervention.
“it used to be that being pro peace and anti-war was a very liberal position I don't know how it suddenly you know fell out of favor”
Taiwan's energy vulnerability is indefensible: Taiwan depends on imported fossil fuels for 91% of primary energy needs, with 98% of those imports sourced externally; Taiwan has shut down its nuclear reactors and follows Germany's policy of phasing out nuclear; with only 11 days of natural gas supply on hand, Taiwan is two weeks away from energy starvation if supply is cut.
“Taiwan relied on fossil fuels for 91% of its primary energy needs in 2023 and 98% of those fossil fuels were imported um and they've shut down their nuclear power plants they've pulled a full they've gone full Germany on their nuclear reactors um and so they're extremely vulnerable now and it's not surprising to us that like we don't think China is going to invade Taiwan for the same reasons why the US didn't invade fosa in World War II it's tough It's hilly terrain there's only so many Landing beaches”
A Nazi standing ovation in the Canadian Parliament was a major public affairs victory for Putin and Russian narrative; it confirms to Russian audiences that the West has lost moral authority and legitimacy; Western leaders' lack of understanding of history and propaganda effects allows adversaries to manipulate information space.
“catastrophic mistakes like giving a literal Nazi Standing Ovation in the Canadian Parliament handed Putin such a public affairs win that you you can't believe it um if you don't understand Chinese history and taiwan's history and you're Lindsey Graham on TV you know propagating for war how those words are heard like that's a US senator on American television”
Iran-Israel mutual vulnerability creates a mutually assured destruction (MAD) dynamic where Iran's thousands of ballistic missiles and precision-targeting capability, combined with Israel's dependence on 10 critical infrastructure sites (power plants, water treatment), creates an equilibrium where both sides face existential threat if escalation occurs.
“you have basically five power plants and five water treatment facilities that produce a great majority of their electricity and clean water and that's 10 sites that everyone knows where they are and if if the Iron Dome is no longer as prolific as it once was thought to be then that is a that changes the game theory also have a different view about the US's position Visa this conflict I think there are two factions in DC one of them wants to escalate in Ukraine and the other wants to escalate in Russia in China and neither want to escalate in the Middle East except for a few people that have been you know anxious to go to war with Iran for a while”
Brazil's President Lula vetoed Venezuela's direct ascension into BRICS at the Kazan summit despite Putin's support for Venezuela; this suggests either US pressure on Brazil or Brazil's concern about BRICS credibility; the veto undermined BRICS credibility and prevented the monetary reform that would have threatened the US dollar.
“then um Venezuela madur is welcomed by Putin as a as peer you know head of state at this big meeting with 30 some odd countries and he's there to lobby for Venezuela's Direct Ascension into the bricks which would be a huge loss for the US and who vetos it Lula um”
Entitlement spending is indexed to inflation, creating a feedback loop where the government has incentive to manipulate inflation reporting downward; this structural conflict between real inflation and reported inflation drives policy incoherence.
“and by the way like a lot of these entitlements are indexed to inflation which is why many people think the government flubs you know fibs on their their inflation data”
Doomberg earns in Fiat, saves in real assets, and invests privately to affect outcomes, because Fiat is not a store of value and only real assets (energy, land, commodities) preserve wealth long-term
“this is why by the way we earn in Fiat and Save in real assets and and invest privately where we can affect the outcome because you know the Fiat isn't I don't like to sit on a big pile of cash you know”
An industrial boom is coming to the southern US driven by the convergence of abundant cheap natural gas, a reshoring-oriented president, and military-industrial complex supply chain restocking needs following Ukraine inventory depletion and China's dominance in critical components.
“there's going to be an industrial boom in the southern us I mean there's just no question about it I think you can't have the world's cheapest uh abundant supply of the world's cleanest burning hydrocarbon um for as long as we've had it with a prot trade Pro re reshoring president with a military industrial complex that desperately needs to get a supply chain act together um even though I think we're going to see the end of the war in the Ukraine we can get to that um there's still a lot of restocking that has to be done the Pentagon has depleted its inventory of of advanced missiles China makes a lot of this stuff we just saw China uh stopped the sale of an important battery for our drone maker”
China will not invade Taiwan militarily because terrain (hills, few landing beaches), defense preparation, and visible beaches make invasion costly; instead, China will execute a naval blockade to choke off Taiwan's energy supply, knowing the US would face a choice between allowing blockade to succeed or fighting a naval war that escalates to nuclear confrontation.
“we don't think China is going to invade Taiwan for the same reasons why the US didn't invade fosa in World War II it's tough It's hilly terrain there's only so many Landing beaches and everybody knows where they are and defenders in particular know where they are everyone's sights are already set for you know and it's a long straight by the way like it's not like you're not going to see them coming I think that the Chinese Naval blockade you know drills were a message to the US and Taiwan that um we could choke your energy off”
The US is not in ascent in the same way China is; current Atlanticist thinking arose during the peak oil/Hubbert's Peak era when US was believed to be terminally short energy; that assumption is now false (US is an energy superpower), so US foreign policy worldview should change to focus on hemispheric dominance rather than global military presence
“I honestly so I have a deeper philosophy on this which is much of the current atlanticist thinking of the US and the UK and the Atlantic and the neocons arose from and was formed during a time when the US believed Peach oil was real and that hubbert's Peak was real that the US and the UK were terminally short energy and needed to go around the world with a big military to fight it those days are over let's change our worldview we don't need to we're swimming at sheep hydrocarbons”
Doomberg's personal stake in the pro-peace position stems from having draft-eligible children; wanting to prevent war is not abstract ideology but parental self-interest, and it is bizarre that the US has not debated or voted on war with Russia despite de facto military involvement.
“count us on a bash Le in the pro peace Camp by the way I mean I have draft eligible children just for starters and by the way if we're going to go to war with Russia shouldn't we have a debate about it in Congress and actually have a vote um it's bizarre to me”
Germany and New Zealand made disastrous energy policy mistakes (shutting down nuclear, last refinery) that cannot be explained by rational decision-making or conspiracy—they indicate systemic incompetence of leadership unable to recognize energy as a national security necessity.
“I don't know how it could be Pier that yeah Taiwan that Taiwan is 98% dependent on Imports um or that Germany um shuts down by the way they shut down six nuclear reactors or the last three nuclear reactors after the war started like in the middle of the energy crisis like you get what you deserve at some point um you know I I it you know we we it just seems like in hindsight well like the most obvious like idiocy”
Doomberg has been analyzing US domestic political camps as pro-war vs pro-peace rather than left-right, as a mental model for understanding power structures; this framework works until it doesn't, and currently maps onto questions of whether US should go to war with Russia, Iran, or China
“we like to develop simpl menal models and they work for a while until they don't work and and for months we have been analyzing the US domestic political situation as pro-war pro peace uh two camps who wants to go to war with Russia directly and who doesn't who wants to go to war against Iran who wants to go to war against China over Taiwan”
The Doomberg collective's 'Neighborhood Watch' piece predicted Brazil would spoil BRICS by analyzing geopolitical and energy alignment of South American countries; the prediction faced criticism for being conspiratorial but proved accurate
“we wrote a piece before Lulu Hoops was called neighborhood watch and that was the one where I think kind of out of nowhere we predicted that Brazil would Scuttle cuz on um we just sort of have a we enjoy a little pattern recognition and a bit of conspiratorial speculation um and we have to write eight pieces a month so you may as well put a few out there that are long shots”
Lula had a brain health issue and couldn't attend the BRICS Kazan summit, which appeared convenient for preventing Venezuela's direct ascension into BRICS—Doomberg called this in a piece 'Neighborhood Watch' and later published 'Lula Hoops' as victory lap when Venezuela's bid failed and Lula vetoed it
“we wrote a piece at the beginning of the year called mapping the war where we address this very issue... we wrote that piece before any of the stuff happened it's called neighborhood watch and we got we got a lot of some pieces really provoke an amazing push back which is very interesting to us because it's a sort of a form of metadata um then all of a sudden you know everyone from Brazil sends us this piece that Lula you know has a brain aneurysm or some kind of a a brain issue and he's not going to go to Kazan well okay that was interesting um had a bit of a Harry Reid definitely hurt himself exercising feel to it um and then um Venezuela madur is welcomed by Putin as a as peer you know head of state at this big meeting with 30 some odd countries and he's there to lobby for Venezuela's Direct Ascension into the bricks which would be a huge loss for the US and who vetos it Lula”
Trump will likely not follow through on threatened tariffs on Mexico and instead will use them as a negotiating tool to secure Mexican cooperation on border control, because the US oil and gas industry depends on Mexico as an outlet for Permian production and constraining flows would be counterproductive to Trump's goal of cheap energy prices.
“I think he's going to threaten tariffs um I I think that not actually go through with it yeah I think that's going to be his main stick in the immigration issue to get Mexico's cooperation on sealing the Border”
Victor Orbán's visit to Mar-a-Lago before the election and Netanyahu's similar visit signal that both will work closely with Trump; this is 'deeply bearish for the EU' because it signals US support for leaders resistant to EU institutional alignment, particularly on Ukraine and military spending.
“I thought it was very interesting that Victor orbon flew over to visit him in marago um I think this is deeply bearish for the EU it's just unabashedly bearish for the EU”
Trump's election materially changes US foreign policy approach to Russia and Ukraine; Trump wants a deal with Putin, has only one term left (limiting window), and will not pursue direct military escalation with Russia, making a negotiated Ukraine settlement likely.
“he Prides himself on the fact that he had quote no wars during his term yeah um and he knows he only has one term left he's not running again and he probably has two years to make an impact um the big unknown for us is actually not Russia Ukraine um Putin actually wants a deal um Russia has its own internal challenges um I don't think Ukraine will like the deal by the way and I think Putin's not going to stop until he gets the majority of the terms that he laid out”
Russia and China's weaponization of external actors (funding propaganda, fomenting movements) is effective because Western leaders are receptive to anti-growth, degrowth, malthusian environmental messaging; external influence merely exploits existing receptivity.
“There are uh reports that uh Russia has uh financed a lot of propaganda in Germany towards the green movement that that sort of thing but I I I guess those things uh impact on the margin and sure not enough to really sway it's an easy Boogeyman yeah you know if you if you had competent leaders they wouldn't be submitting to malthusian uh degrowth movements of the environmental left um so you have to be receptive to that message for uh external nefarious State actors to be able to exploit it um and so shame on us we're doing that by the way in all their countries I mean this is this is what statecraft is these days”
China operates at 'China speed' and can accomplish infrastructure development far faster than Western institutions; Hainan island's military buildup (carving out mountainsides for airbases, submarine docks) in close proximity to tourist resorts demonstrates China's ability to execute scale and speed projects that would take Western governments years
“China operates at what we call China speed and unless you've done business in and around China that it's hard to actually understand just how quickly they get things done and it's it's not surprising but it really exposed it really exposed the extent to which China has built out this launching Point into the well China wants to project power around its neighborhood um and they have their own version of the Monroe Doctrine”
New Zealand shut down its last refinery and then wondered why its main airport ran out of jet fuel; Taiwan and Germany have shut down nuclear capacity creating energy vulnerability; these policies seem obviously idiotic in hindsight but reflect genuine policy decisions by leaders
“but um their current situation is literally as we we titled the piece indefensible and it makes the island indefensible um when we cut oil off to Japan we went to war this is this is what happens and and so how it could be that the leaders of Germany or the prior leaders of New Zealand could think it wise to shut down your last refiner uh and then wonder why your main airport ran out ran out of jet fuel um it's a long swim to Australia”
With a deficit of 7-8% of GDP in peacetime with full employment, and entitlements indexed to inflation, there is no politically palatable path to fiscal correction; elections worldwide show voters reward special-interest pandering over fiscal discipline
“and um and by the way like a lot of these entitlements are indexed to inflation which is why many people think the government flubs you know fibs on their their inflation data so I don't see the path out like and none of the political choices are very palatable and um if anything the the the la last election in the US and elections elsewhere in the world show that like the way to get elected offices is to to Pander to special interest”
The US should be isolationist, focusing on the Western Hemisphere as its sphere of influence, defending Western Hemisphere interests, and cutting deals with Russia, China, and Iran rather than pursuing military conflict.
“I think the the Department of Defense their primary objective should be to defend it's in the name you know I I all these insurrections into Afghanistan Iran or sorry Iraq uh I mean these these wars have yeah Libya they've all they've all led to further radicalization and instability in those countries yeah it doesn't exactly make us popular in the global South which is again the 7 billion people not living in the G7 um so yeah I mean let's see what Trump does but I like one of the reasons you don't get into Wars is you might lose them and we've got a pretty strong track record of basically losing Wars for the past few decades”
Developing an alternative to the US dollar system is hard and takes a long time; gold serves as the neutral reserve asset that currencies and nations are weaponized, making gold the default alternative; central banks have been accumulating gold, and a Shanghai physical gold exchange window has disrupted gold markets
“developing an alternative the US dollar system is always going to be hard it's always going to take a long time it's nobody wants to hold anybody else's currencies um it took forever to get the European Union up and running it's going to take time”
Doomberg represents a sophisticated understanding of incompetence in government derived from personal experience: once he reached the board level in corporate America, he found leadership was naive, poorly informed, and made terrible strategic decisions, explaining why government officials make obviously stupid policy choices on energy, military, and foreign policy.
“I remember when I would see what I thought were obviously dumb things coming out of the sea Suite um then I thought to myself you know there must be some room where there's an oracle that knows more than I do that explains the Deep meaning here and then one day I got to pitch the board of directors which has to be the you know the inner Oracle and I I remember leaving that meeting and I could not have been more underwhelmed um I don't know how they got there but it but it wasn't like some of them were great look at and I it's a bit unfair to say but like you would be shocked at who in charge and how they got there and what their skills actually are”
Specific world leaders (Olaf Scholz, Boris Johnson, Justin Trudeau) are individually incompetent and lack intellectual depth; Trudeau 'was born on third base and thought he hit a triple'; these leaders genuinely believe their own narratives and policies are correct, not that they are executing a hidden agenda.
“I don't think Olaf Schultz is a deep thinker I don't think Boris Johnson is uh an inflect on the scale of uh of uh you know prior British leaders like Winston Churchill for example um they are who they are like Justin Trudeau has a pedestrian intellect let's be very honest right um he he was he you know born on third base and thought he hit a triple um and so that's who you have right um and and I think you I don't think like I think Justin Trudeau believes what he says believes that he has the moral High ground and and did all the right things during the covid lockdown and but it doesn't mean he's smart and it doesn't mean he's capable”
Hiring government officials is less attractive than corporate careers due to personal destruction during vetting processes; this selects for people with lower alternatives or less ambitious career paths, reducing quality of government leadership relative to corporate leadership; therefore, government is systematically staffed by second-rate talent.
“if you're working for the government um until you reach that rotating door I mean who who go who would go on government today like the personal destruction and the digging into your history and airing all of your dirty laundry during like who who would do that when you could make more money in the private sector and live a happy quiet life”
Western analysts demonstrated deep technical arrogance in Ukraine analysis by confidently predicting Russian economic collapse and claiming Russia lacked engineering capability, when in reality China, India, and Russia are at the pinnacle of engineering in hydrocarbons, with China producing 15,000 petroleum engineers annually vs 600 in the US
“I think first of all it speaks to the Deep technical arrogance of Western analysts which we have been raising our hand and objecting to from the very beginning of the conflict in Ukraine I mean I I'm I'm old enough to remember a certain popular YouTube character who we all know um saying that you know Russian oil and gas would stop and their economy was going to collapse and there's no engineers and they need our services companies like this this is can only be spoken by somebody who's never worked in Industry”
Russia is outproducing NATO in artillery shell production because Russia maintains 50-mile supply lines directly behind lines of contact while NATO supply chains originate in China, transit the US, and reach Ukraine—a logistical asymmetry that makes Russia's production advantage inevitable regardless of corruption in either military
“we're fighting a war where our supply chain starts in China comes to the US and goes to Ukraine they're fighting a war where their supply chain is 50 miles behind the line of contact I mean this is this is always Bly um”
China manufactures solar panels and wind turbines at scale while Western countries pursue green energy policy, creating a strategic vulnerability: the West is hamstringing itself with inefficient green policy while China dominates the supply chain for those technologies
“so while they're hamstringing us with with wind and solar and I I I enjoyed your your storage units your piece on titled storage units which was you know that like you know switching to you know Green has doubl the cost because not only you know not only do you have this problem with intermittent power you have to store it so you need to bu the batteries or keep natural gas power plants on standby running at 15% capacity”
Electricity pricing is deeply subsidized, and price elasticity of demand for electricity is among the highest of commodities, so injecting 3-10% new AI demand onto the US grid would cause major disruption and politically unacceptable consumer price increases.
“the what's electricity worth it's worth way more than the average consumer pays for it which is a bit of a mirage because it's a deeply subsidized public good um and so this this rally in the utility stocks was always a bit of a heads scratcher to us because there's no scenario in which Joe sixpack is going to pay 50% more for their electricity through one election cycle um and so I think um there's a bit of a mirage because the more people use the more they pay but that's not really a market right you're just paying a fixed price for an underpriced good that is managed that way by Design and you can't inject 3 4 5 8 10% electricity demand onto the slowest developing most complex electricity Grid in the world um without having major disruption so the price l City demand for electricity is amongst the highest of the quote unquote Commodities”
Western analysts and commentators have displayed deep technical arrogance regarding Russia's capabilities, falsely claiming Russian oil and gas production would collapse and Russia lacks engineers; this reflects failure to understand that China, India, and Russia—all highly motivated to maintain energy flows—represent the apex of engineering capability, with China operating a single university that produces 15,000 petroleum engineers annually versus 600 per year in the US.
“I mean I I'm old enough to remember a certain popular YouTube character who we all know um saying that you know Russian oil and gas would stop and their economy was going to collapse and there's no engineers and they need our services companies like this this is can only be spoken by somebody who's never worked in Industry I mean I um China India and Russia who are all highly motivated to keep those molecules flowing are the the at the Pinnacle of engineering there's the entire University in China that produces nothing but petroleum engineers and I think they have 15,000 students enrolled there we produce 600 a year”
China has a long history of brinksmanship—talking things up to a boiling point, then backing off; therefore, understanding China requires knowledge of its history of foreign invasion (Japan), civil war, Century of Humiliation, and current century-long grand strategy
“China has a long history of brinksmanship you know talking talking things up a lot bringing things to a boiling point and then and then backing off yeah they had some hard history like one of the things we forget is everybody's history right I mean in Russia Today for example World War II is the dominant cultural narrative right the Great Patriotic War well China has very long history as well Japan like World War II didn't start Pearl Harbor didn't start with the invasion of Poland by the Nazis it started with the invasion of China by by Japan yeah um and that was a very nasty War right and then they had the civil war after that and by the way it wasn't always called Taiwan it was called fosa and we almost invaded it um in the Cent humiliation before that yes shaped the the Zeitgeist of Chinese uh policy makers”
The global South (7 billion people not in the G7) remembers colonialism and the West's regime-change adventures; being popular in the global South requires respecting their history and operating with good faith rather than imperial coercion
“it doesn't exactly make us popular in the global South which is again the 7 billion people not living in the G7”
NATO is not prepared for direct nuclear war with Russia, and this is not something the Pentagon wants; therefore, NATO has no effective escalation ladder and will accept loss of Ukraine rather than cross the nuclear threshold
“are we prepared to to have a nucle war with Russia doesn't seem like the Pentagon is these days um and so and thank God I mean who wants a nuclear war”
Ukraine is going to lose the war in a decisive way, which has been under-reported because mainstream media (NYT, CNN, Washington Post) operates in a different narrative frame than on-the-ground reality mapped by Ukrainian, Russian, and neutral mappers using geolocated video and AI
“so you know um but yeah like if follow this every day as I've come to just as a bit of a hobby then you have you're armed with this information and then you read the financial times or you read the New York Post or you read Zero Hedge and then all of a sudden you have like a bit of a you know used to used to do stock market research this way right You' get your Mosaic uh of information and come to something that is an objective enough truth that you could put money behind it if you're a portfolio manager like you Richard right um and so we're losing that war um Ukraine and the people of Ukraine are by far the biggest victims of this tragedy”
Trump's election brought big money wins for Peter Thiel and Elon Musk; Jeff Bezos avoided a beating by withdrawing Washington Post endorsement and getting ahead of the Trump wave, preserving his relationship with both AWS contracts and access to deep state data; Elon's proximity to Trump is bad for competitors like Musk in space sector
“I'd be I'd want to be long anything think Peter thiel owns this morning like I think he had a very good night um obviously Elon had a good night yeah um oh yeah um you know and and so I think by the way like the shest move was Jeff Bezos and The Washington Post I mean I read a very interesting article by Pippa malgam yesterday or the day before on substack she had she's a very interesting thinker and she um mentioned that Bezos has access to the best data system in the world through both Amazon and AWS and contacts within the Deep State through the Washington Post like he had to see this wave coming and got ahead of it shely much to the Chagrin of you know most of the reporters there um but you know so I think Bezos avoids a feat U might not come out a winner probably not too happy about Elon musk's um coziness with Trump given his competition in the space sector”
John Bolton and other neoconservatives have an outsized influence on presidential policy through subcabinet infiltration, and Trump may underestimate their agendas in his second term just as he did in his first; Trump will be more strategic about cabinet picks this time and should prioritize practical people over ideologues
“I think part of the unpredictability was driven by certain members of his team that Trump may have underestimated their real agendas in the first term I think John Bolton yeah the John boltons of the world”
Doomberg recommends Joe Manchin be nominated as Secretary of Energy because he represents practical, centralist energy thinking that aligns with pro-growth, pro-energy policy.
“one of our recommendations by the way back to energy if we publish this open letter which we probably will tomorrow um is that he nominate Joe Mansion to be Secretary of Energy I think that would be a brilliant choice on his part um for that position so we'll see if he if he goes for the Mansions of the world the Practical people that are a bit you know uh Central in their thinking centralist in their thinking”
The US is running fiscal dominance: interest payments have reached $1.2 trillion/year, the US is borrowing $1 trillion every 85 days, and federal spending is 25-26% of GDP; this trajectory is unsustainable and will end either through deliberate fiscal discipline or currency collapse
“I think the hardest thing to do is to fire a federal employee so I I nobody's talking really about rating and spending Trump likes the numbers to go up uh I think the long long bond is is you know rates are going to go higher um I think we are running basically what groman again calls um fiscal dominance right like we our interest payments are up to 1.2 trillion a year we're borrowing a trillion dollars every 85 days um the fiscal spending and what the Washington machine has just grown to 25 to 26% of US GDP”
Israel faces an existential fight with an uncertain ending; the recent leak about Netanyahu and ceasefire negotiations was very damaging to Netanyahu politically; Israeli domestic politics have polarized around those-who-serve vs those-who-don't rather than traditional left-right divide
“I know it is the subject of um some serious accusations you know the United Nations resolutions passing with strong Global support against Israel and so on there they're sort of um they're under seiz right now um as a economically politically geopolitically um it's an existential fight it is an existential fight for no question um How It Ends is going to be very interesting to watch I think that that leak about Netanyahu and the ceasefire was very damaging to Netanyahu”
Doomberg recommends Trump nominate Joe Manchin to be Secretary of Energy as a practical, centralist choice aligned with energy development; this would be 'brilliant' compared to appointing ideologues like John Bolton to State Department positions.
“one of our recommendations by the way back to energy if we publish this open letter which we probably will tomorrow um is that he nominate Joe Mansion to be Secretary of Energy I think that would be a brilliant choice on his part um for that position so we'll see if he if he goes for the Mansions of the world the Practical people that are a bit you know uh Central in their thinking centralist in their thinking”
Cheap US natural gas exports to Mexico are a primary driver of auto manufacturing relocation to Monterey, and Trump's threatened tariffs on Mexico would disrupt this value chain by incentivizing reshoring of that cheap gas domestically rather than allowing export, creating a reallocation of US energy supply away from Mexico toward domestic consumption
“that surge in uh economic activity in Monteray for example where you know the auto plants are are uh you know up and coming uh you know large large Auto manua global auto manufacturers are are building their base there uh a lot of that is being driven by Cheap natural gas exports from the US”
An industrial boom in the US South over the next two years is inevitable given the combination of world's cheapest abundant clean-burning hydrocarbon supply, a pro-trade/pro-reshoring president, and Pentagon inventory depletion requiring restocking of advanced missiles and military supplies
“I think you can't have the world's cheapest uh abundant supply of the world 's cleanest burning hydrocarbon um for as long as we've had it with a prot trade Pro re reshoring president with a military industrial complex that desperately needs to get a supply chain act together um even though I think we're going to see the end of the war in the Ukraine we can get to that um there's still a lot of restocking that has to be done the Pentagon has depleted its inventory of of advanced missiles China makes a lot of this stuff”
Jeff Bezos and Amazon/AWS have access to the best data systems in the world plus contacts within the Deep State through the Washington Post; Bezos saw the Trump wave coming and positioned himself ahead of it by ending the Post's opposition to Trump, avoiding a Musk-style confrontation.
“I think the shest move was Jeff Bezos and The Washington Post I mean I read a very interesting article by Pippa malgam yesterday or the day before on substack she had she's a very interesting thinker and she um mentioned that Bezos has access to the best data system in the world through both Amazon and AWS and contacts within the Deep State through the Washington Post like he had to see this wave coming and got ahead of it shely much to the Chagrin of you know most of the reporters there”
Taiwan's history is complicated and more nuanced than mainstream reporting suggests; Chinese civil war (1949) is not over in China's mind; Taiwan's people have polarized views; the last presidential election was closely fought—Lindsey Graham and others propagandizing for war don't understand this history
“when you read the full history of Taiwan and China a it's complicated um B it is way more nuanced than it's often portrayed here um the people of Taiwan have polarized views on the matter that the last presidential election was closely fought um and it's a in China's mind you know the Civil War of 1949 isn't over yet um in a way”
The Iran-Israel conflict is the flashpoint Doomberg worries about most, because mutually assured destruction scenarios are metastable equilibria vulnerable to provocateurs on either side pulling 'bricks from the bottom of the Jenga tower' and causing collapse
“I'm curious though you've mentioned the uh Middle East situation uh a few times now would it be accurate to say that that is the flash point uh or the potential flasho when you think about the larger configration might occur between Israel and Iran is that the one that worries you the most yes yes absolutely yeah”
Pro-war sentiment has become bipartisan among neoconservatives (Lindsey Graham, Mitch McConnell, Chuck Schumer), representing a shift from when anti-war sentiment was traditionally a liberal position; this suggests institutional capture of foreign policy by hawk faction across both parties
“the neocon element of Washington which by the way is bipartisan that Lindsey Graham um you know Mitch McConnell Chuck Schumer and Nexus are all very much proar um so they used to be by the way commented earlier about no chance that Trump would get the Peace Prize it used to be that being pro peace and anti-war was a very liberal position I don't know how it suddenly you know fell out of favor”
If the US were to adopt good-faith diplomacy in South America, it would defang the IMF's debt-trap practices, stop resource extraction under the guise of collateral seizure (which is happening in Ukraine), and pursue mutually beneficial trade with a human-first approach based on the assumption that other leaders have the same goal (lifting citizens out of poverty).
“if we were genuine goodfaith actors and sophisticated diplomats you know and we defang the IMF a little bit and stopped you know getting countries into debt traps and taking all their resources because of it as collateral which again we're seeing the signs of that in Ukraine um you know but I don't expect that to happen by the way I'm saying that's what I would do this this is the policy that I would start with a human first policy of American citizens and assume that all of the other leaders of the countries we're dealing with have the same goal in mind for their citizens and we would try to construct trade relationships that were mutually beneficial um you know and help lift as many people out of poverty”
There is no clear line of sight to any mechanism that would impose fiscal discipline on the US federal government; the stock market must keep rising, money must keep being printed, and all parties involved are locked into this system; therefore, the current fiscal situation is best managed by earning in fiat currency and saving in real assets.
“it's really a fascinating situation um there's no line of sight to any fiscal discipline whatsoever or even that the economy could withstand it at this point um stocks have to keep going up money has to keep being printed and uh we're all on this crazy ride together this is why by the way we earn in Fiat and Save in real assets and and invest privately where we can affect the outcome”
Trump prides himself on having no wars during his first term and will prioritize peace deals over confrontation; with only one term left and two years to make an impact, he is motivated to cut deals with Putin on Ukraine and potentially with Iran and China rather than escalate
“if you listen to Trump on the campaign Trail which we tried to do on occasion um he Prides himself on the fact that he had quote no wars during his term yeah um and he knows he only has one term left he's not running again and he probably has two years to make an impact”
The impeachment of Trump over Ukraine is particularly ironic because Trump now understands Ukraine inside-out after all this time and is well-positioned to navigate it; Victor Orbán's visit to Mar-a-Lago signals Trump's comfort engaging with non-aligned leaders
“the thing that's really interesting is that they impeached Trump over Ukraine remember one one of the reasons he was impeached was over Ukraine it's not he doesn't know what's going on and what that situation is inside out after all this time and I thought it was very interesting that Victor orbon flew over to visit him in marago”
The BRICS Kazan summit was underwhelming; the term 'gold' wasn't even mentioned in the final document despite expectations; the proposed alternative to the US dollar (the 'unit') never materialized; instead, BRICS agreed only to study and write a white paper on currency alternatives to report back to the next BRICS president—which is Brazil, allowing further delay
“when you read the Kazan document I know there's a lot of excitement about it there really is kind of a giant nothing Burger not really much in the way of action there the word gold isn't mentioned in it for example um and then um they're they've agreed to study to write a white paper always a great bureaucratic exercise in can kicking and they're going to report back to the next president of bricks which is oh Brazil”
Israel faces an existential situation and its domestic politics are divided between those who serve (secular military) and those who don't (extreme right, religious exemptions); Netanyahu's power depends on this fragile coalition, and his firing of Defense Minister Galant was about rejecting a bill to force religious enlistment.
“I follow uh Israeli politics uh I have family there and one of the things I I read recently uh was that the the political landscape there was uh shifting meaningfully uh away from Left Right divide and more between those who serve and those who don't and Netanyahu is only in power right now by this uh this Mosaic uh weird Coalition strange bedfellows and part of it being with the extreme right the the more religious part of the country that does not serve in the military and that has created a lot of dissatisfaction with the the you know the average more secular portion of the population that serves overwhelming in the Army and uh apparently the the uh firing of Galant uh yesterday had to do with his uh rejection of this bill that would uh keep the religious right from serving in the military”
Trump's unpredictability during his first term was partly driven by advisors like John Bolton whose real agendas Trump underestimated; Trump is likely more cautious now and will be careful about who he appoints to avoid that trap.
“I think part of the unpredictability was driven by certain members of his team that Trump may have underestimated their real agendas in the first term I think John Bolton yeah the John boltons of the world”
The Trump impeachment over Ukraine was peculiar because Trump would obviously understand the Ukraine situation 'inside out' after all this time, having been impeached over it; impeachment did not educate him on the issue as intended.
“the weirdest thing I think that the thing that's really interesting is that they impeached Trump over Ukraine remember one one of the reasons he was impeached was over Ukraine it's not he doesn't know what's going on and what that situation is inside out after all this time”
Peter Thiel and Elon Musk had 'very good nights' from Trump's election victory; Elon's Twitter/X platform played a critical role in Trump's campaign and he gained significant access and influence as a result, positioning him to benefit from Trump's pro-tech policies.
“I'd be I'd want to be long anything think Peter thiel owns this morning like I think he had a very good night um obviously Elon had a good night yeah um oh yeah”
Victor Orbán's visit to Trump at Mar-a-Lago is deeply bearish for the EU.
“I thought it was very interesting that Victor orbon flew over to visit him in marago um I think this is deeply bearish for the EU it's just unabashedly bearish for the EU”