Matthew Ball
About
Author and metaverse/gaming strategist, CEO of Epyllion, former global head of strategy for Amazon Studios
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Claims by Matthew Ball (20 of 42)
Networks grow by who is there, not features
Bringing non-adopters (parents, grandparents) into the metaverse will happen the same way it did with the internet — because of who is already there. Ball's parents joined Facebook to see their children's lives and friends, not to talk to their own friends.
XR headsets not required for 3D mass adoption
Contrary to the 1990s sci-fi assumption that 3D existence required XR/AR/VR headsets, hundreds of millions of people daily already interact in 3D virtual space using keyboards (WASD) and touchscreens; path dependency means humans have trained into these existing devices, so headsets are not a technical requirement to extend the metaverse.
3D is not a wholesale replacement for 2D
The metaverse will not shift everything to 3D; most tasks performed today on decades-old, 2D-based devices (typing text) will continue, just as the mobile/cloud era still relies on PCs and fixed-line networks. 3D should be seen as an addition for some use cases, not an overall replacement.
Device form vs function depends on use case
Whether device size/aesthetics or field-of-view/functionality matters more depends on the application: industrial AR (e.g., Johns Hopkins' first live patient surgery using AR/VR) tolerates cumbersome, expensive, tethered, battery-limited devices because function dominates, whereas consumer wearables require aesthetics — as the Apple Watch (versus prior smartwatches) demonstrated.
Metaverse dating offers safety and exploration
Extending dating into games and virtual environments offers a sense of safety, especially for those who don't feel safe meeting strangers in person, and lets people explore shared beliefs and opportunities; it will not supplant physical contact, but combined with haptics may replace some physical intimacy elsewhere rather than the meatspace bar meetup.
Internet net-good for teen girls despite shortfalls
On net, the internet is a good thing for 12-to-14-year-old American girls, even though we are falling terribly short in many areas — and the prospect of metaverse leadership shifting to game-design philosophies is a reason for optimism that future platforms will be marginally better than past ones.
AR glasses blocked by battery and optics limits
Consumer AR glasses face extraordinary unsolved physical constraints: Snap Spectacles last 30 minutes, augment less than 10% of view at one-quarter the needed resolution and frame rate, and solving optics plus battery alone far exceeds current capability; many believe AR glasses won't arrive until extraordinary battery advances (not currently on trajectory) and/or quantum computing are achieved.
3D learning enables impossible perspectives
Immersive 3D education enables learning experiences impossible or unaffordable in reality — building a Rube Goldberg machine on Earth then Mars then in Venus's clouds while modulating gravity, dissecting a feral cat at zero marginal cost, or shrinking into a Magic School Bus to travel the circulatory system — and crucially lets learners adopt non-human scales and perspectives (atomic, or environments that would instantly crush a human).
Two choke points: distribution and hardware
Market power in the metaverse will most likely concentrate at two choke points: software distribution (the gateway of discovery/distribution of virtual experiences — Steam, Roblox, Google search — which lets the gatekeeper also become the dominant identity and payment system), and hardware (device operators who control an ever-growing network of APIs, technical requirements, and controls through which the experience is shaped).
Edge computing enables data custody
Per Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince, the primary role of edge computing in the metaverse will be data custody: governments will require important data to be maintained within national borders, with anonymized tokens exposed only when and where required (opted in by the user), and an instant obligation by the end platform to then forget, delete, and disconnect.
AR cameras capture more than users realize
AR/VR headsets carry many external-facing cameras (most Oculus devices have two or four; the rumored Apple device will have 12 across multiple spectral bands) that run constantly and will see what your obscured eyes cannot — capturing sensitive information (e.g., a naked child running through a living room) that the user may never know about — which is driving significant investment in what data is instantly discarded versus kept local.
Centralization persists despite decentralization
The metaverse future is neither pure decentralization nor competition down to marginal cost; the early internet was held back by heavy decentralization (AOL won as easy, cohesive, vertically integrated), while the last 15 years became too centralized. Regardless of decentralized protocols or blockchains, multiple forms of centralization (habit, brand, trust, IP, revenue-and-scale feedback loops) mean a handful of platforms will retain disproportionate share — though less power than today.
Activision deal framed as metaverse building blocks
Microsoft's $75 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard — its most expensive ever and the most expensive in big tech history — was framed by CEO Satya Nadella, in the final line of the first draft, as providing the building blocks for the metaverse, signaling how central gaming companies are to the metaverse.
Pro streaming is a punishing income-driven grind
Professional gaming/streaming is treated like a demanding job: Ninja streamed 8-10 hours a day six days a week and would lose tens of thousands of subscribers and see minute-by-minute income drops if he stopped for 48 hours; Counter-Strike pros do hours of repetitive aiming drills like elite athletes — happiness depends on making ends meet and performance satisfaction, but it takes a toll like any pro sport.
Most people are already passively on the internet
The relevant observation is not whether people use the internet actively but that they are already on it passively — IP-based CCTV, badge authentication, point-of-sale terminals all run over IP, so most daily activities already require some form of digital identity whether the person manages it or not; much of the metaverse will likewise run behind the scenes (e.g., Hong Kong International Airport became a real-time 3D simulation tracking travelers in 2020).
Median metaverse adoption is 15+ years out
Self-conscious metaverse adoption by the median person is more than 15 years away, but a leading indicator is that three-quarters of children aged 9-12 in the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia regularly use Roblox — a single consumer-leisure metaverse-style platform — which represents generational succession.
Game moderation targets fun, not just rules
Game companies moderate differently from social media: social platforms moderate binary rule violations (abuse, slurs, self-harm encouragement) but tolerate within-ToS behavior that adversely affects others' experience, whereas games moderate 'griefing' — anything that adversely affects someone else's sense of fun — because people only play games they enjoy, giving game-design cultures a structurally more positive approach to platform stewardship.
Network effects, not features, drive adoption
The obstacle to non-gamers is often who is using a product, not which technology it is: per network effects (Metcalfe's Law), a product can be technically unchanged yet become multiples more relevant and appealing to an individual once three or four of their friends use it — and current saturation (75% of 9-12 year-olds) crosses that threshold.
Tokens as a new LLC-like resource construct
Tokens are likely to endure not via a relevant in-game role per se but, per the Marc Andreessen/Chris Dixon view, as a construct for a new form of LLC (Wyoming, the first LLC state, is legalizing this) — a smarter digital system for the rapid accumulation of financial and other resources that exists in virtual space predominantly for virtual means, whether or not it actually uses blockchain.
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