Rick Rule and Lobo Tiggre: What We're Buying, Selling, and Watching as War Not Stopping
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Rick Rule and Lobo Tiggre are often a voice of reason as chaos erupts and this conversation proves no exception as they explain what they're buying, selling, and watching for potential opportunity as geopolitical uncertainty reigns supreme. The duo caution against overreaction and lay out their strategies for deploying capital to the metals and mining sector in times of turmoil, including gold, silver, uranium, energy, and more.
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00:00 Introduction 00:23 Iran War and Precious Metals 08:16 Gold and Silver Miners 14:49 Time to Hold Cash? 22:25 Nuclear War and Uranium Prices 30:42 Opportunity in Oil and Gas? 38:07 Which Assets are Still Hated? 41:24 Draw Your Own Conclusions
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Rick Rule and Lobo Tigre argue that current geopolitical conflict creates significant investment opportunities in precious metals, uranium, and energy despite near-term volatility, but investors should maintain cash reserves and selective positioning rather than chase rallies, because market dislocations and potential credit crises will create better entry points.
- Gold at $4,700 represents substantial appreciation from $253 in 2000, and further upside likely as dollar purchasing power erodes
- War-driven energy disruption makes nuclear/uranium structurally bullish despite short-term uncertainty about reactor strikes
- Credit contagion risk and private credit stress present black swan scenarios justifying cash reserves for opportunistic deployment
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Japan built the second-largest nuclear fleet in the world immediately after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, choosing nuclear because it was the only material with sufficient energy density to guarantee 5 years of electricity supply—demonstrating that energy security concerns (not abstract climate beliefs) drive nuclear adoption.
“the Japanese built the second largest nuclear fleet in the world in the aftermath of the Arab or oil embargo. The only material with sufficient energy density to guarantee, uh, electricity to Japan for 5 years, which was their strategic goal, was nuclear.”
Current geopolitical events in the Middle East are a wake-up call (escalating beyond 2022 Ukraine invasion) that energy independence is an urgent, pressing necessity for all countries, making nuclear/uranium the only viable solution for energy-independent nations without significant hydro or fossil fuel resources.
“If the events of 2022, the second invasion of Ukraine were a wake-up call to the world that energy independence isn't something just to talk about, but an urgent and pressing need, I think the events right now in the Middle East are an absolute punch to the face of a wake-up call saying, you know, if you weren't paying attention before, you better bloody well be paying attention now. I think the world got the memo.”
Rick Rule's foundational investment principle for 40 years has been to 'buy hate and sell love'—purchase assets when they're despised and exit when they're adored—and currently he doesn't see much hate expressed in markets, limiting the number of attractive opportunities.
“my dictum for 40 years has been to buy hate and sell love. Uh and I don't see much hate out there. Uh the areas that as recently as you know, three or four months ago, Jesse talking to you, uh where there was a lot of hate expressed in markets, I don't see much hate expressed in markets.”
The ultimate goal of investment is to make money through selling high, not through being religiously committed to a particular commodity or macro scenario—regardless of whether a particular asset class corrects, volatility will create opportunities somewhere, so tactical allocation is superior to dogmatic sector positioning.
“the whole idea here is to make money, not be religious about your favorite commodity or you know, your macro scenario. You've got to do the sell high part of buy low, sell high. And that sets the stage for, you know, the next multiple as you go forward.”
Rick Rule recommends using Warren Buffett's principle of owning stocks you would welcome declining 50% so you could buy more cheaply—this measures true conviction and is essential for avoiding investment underperformance.
“Own the stuff the way Warren Buffett says. Own the stuff because you like it so much that you would welcome a 50% share price decline so that you could buy more cheaply. Uh that is a measure of love that very few people understand. Uh and I think the fact that they don't is responsible for an awful lot of the investment underperformance that we see across financial markets.”
The global average cost to produce a barrel of oil (inclusive of cost of capital and social rents/royalties) is approximately $60 per barrel, and when production costs of $60 yield selling prices of $110 with 45-50% margins, this creates the classic condition for price collapse—high prices are the cure for high prices.
“the global average cost to produce a barrel of oil, uh un- unconventional measure, which includes cost of capital, which the industry never never does, and social rents, which is to say royalties and government theft, is something like $60 a barrel. Traditionally, if you make something for 60 and you sell it for 110, if you have 45 or 50% margins, uh in the natural resource business, you are setting the stage for a price collapse.”
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine has been repeatedly shelled for years without any radiation release, demonstrating the robustness of modern nuclear engineering and providing evidence that even damaged reactors are safer than feared.
“Zaporizhzhia has been shelled and not one bit of radiation has come out. For years, you know, that thing has been scaring people and it has shown that nuclear engineer, you know, there's a reason why we say these things are designed to withstand war.”
Turkey defended the Turkish lira against the strong US dollar by selling gold reserves, because gold is a marketable asset offering liquidity that Turkish bonds do not provide
“the Turks had to defend the Turkish lira as an example against the strong US dollar to maintain pricing levels in Turkey. What did they have with that was marketable? Certainly not Turkish bonds. Gold. Uh they did what other holders of gold do during periods of time when they need liquidity because gold offers liquidity.”
Nuclear weapons and civil nuclear power generation are completely distinct phenomena; even if Western populations panic and demand nuclear shutdowns, BRICS countries understand this distinction clearly and will continue nuclear expansion regardless of Western sentiment.
“nuclear weapons are a completely different thing from civil nuclear power in you know electricity generation. Um, and even if Westerners freak out and panic, uh, certainly the BRICS countries will not. They understand that distinction clearly.”
When oil prices escalate, governments will eventually institute windfall profits taxes (as Nixon did in the US and Alberta did with natural gas) to capture the arbitrage, which will be very difficult to forecast in terms of impact on equity valuations.
“at some point in time if we see continued high prices particularly where they have an excuse windfall profits due to war the government will come in and try to steal the arbitrage. What that does to equity price valuations is very tough to forecast. Uh every time we've had a period of escalating oil prices in the United States that great free enterpriser Nixon uh came in and instituted excess profits tax. Uh in Canada that great bastion of free markets Alberta came in when the gas price went up they tripled the gas royalty.”
The growing concern over private credit is particularly concerning as a potential trigger for self-fulfilling prophecy that could cause unnecessary harm even if the credit is fundamentally sound
“you know, with the with the chaos and the fog of war being one thing with the, you know, he mentioned credit quality, but I'll be a little more specific and say the growing concern over private credit. Like even if that is fundamentally sound at some level just the increasing level of panic there is the sort of thing that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy and cause maybe unnecessary harm, but it's still harm.”
Gold futures are currently around $4,700 and have appreciated substantially from $253 in 2000, which Rick Rule considers appropriate given geopolitical and economic risks, whereas complaining about $4,700 gold misses the long-term purchasing power erosion context.
“I began saving in gold in the year 2000 when gold was at $253. $4,700 does not feel like down to me.”
Mining stocks provide leverage to underlying metal commodities, and if the metals themselves reverse course, strong fundamentals and valuation will not prevent stocks from retreating alongside the metals—leverage works both ways.
“if the metal itself goes into reverse, this wonderful fundamental, this undervaluation case is not going to prevent the stock from retreating with the metal. We all know they give us leverage to the underlying commodities.”
In 2008, many investors who understood the crisis unfolding still could not capitalize because they lacked dry powder (cash reserves), resulting in the anguished complaint 'I get it. I want to buy, but I'm all in. I have no cash.' This is a repeated mistake investors make by over-allocating to positions.
“I remember one of the most painful experiences in my career was in 2008 when all the people who saw what was happening, they agreed, they they got it, but then when the opportunity presented itself, I remember the agonized email from people saying, 'I get it. I want to buy, but I'm I'm all in. I have no cash.'”
A significant risk to equity markets exists from credit contagion extending from private credit markets to retail investors through high-yield ETFs, where retail investors are chasing 150-250 basis points of yield without understanding the liquidity mismatch risks—if redemptions spike, managers will be forced to sell illiquid junk bonds with no bid.
“the one that scares me the most is as Lobo suggests a credit contagion that extends to moms and pops and causes the moms and pops to sell their high-yield exchange-traded funds. There's trillions of dollars of these things out there. They trade like water, but the underlying assets are in illiquid junk bonds. The people who own these things are yield They're chasing 150 or 250 basis points without understanding anything about the risks that they're running. And if they suddenly decide that the risks are greater than the rewards and they go to redeem those funds, the managers will have to sell underlying assets that might not have a bid.”
Gold's real role and utility is the maintenance of purchasing power over time, not as a short-term speculation or savings vehicle—this function explains why sovereigns like Hungary and other governments have been selling gold to fund immediate obligations without compromising gold's long-term value.
“When push comes to shove, the ultimate source of liquidity is also hard money. We've seen that not just for investors... the famous report of Hungary selling off like its last several years' worth of gold purchases to help offset the energy bills, and we understand other governments are doing that, too. So, this isn't gold's failure. This is gold doing its job.”
What drives gold prices is not geopolitical fear itself, but fear about deterioration of purchasing power of savings expressed primarily through the US dollar—geopolitical events matter only insofar as they trigger currency debasement.
“what really moves gold isn't geopolitical fear, but rather fear about the deterioration of the purchasing power of one's savings expressed primarily in the world's reserve currency, the US dollar.”
Most mining stocks (approximately 90% of those listed worldwide) have no tangible value whatsoever, making the broader mining sector perpetually overvalued despite potential undervaluation in the top 10% of highest-quality producers.
“90% of the mining stocks listed worldwide are valueless. They have no value whatsoever. So, if you're looking at the market overall, it's perpetually overvalued because most of them are pre- pretenders.”
Rick warns investors not to participate in private credit in industries they do not understand; understanding credit quality analysis and collateral values is difficult even for experts, and lack of industry knowledge multiplies the risk.
“For folks at home, don't get involved in private credit in industries that you don't understand. Understand how to analyze credit quality, which is tough with junk credit, uh and understand in particular the collateral values. Uh if you don't know an industry, don't participate in private credit. Probably don't participate in the equity.”
If investors receive criticism (rotten tomatoes) from viewers for not cheerleading a particular commodity, they should be skeptical of their own emotional response and consider that analysts willing to be contrarian and honest about risks are more reliable than permabulls who only tell you what you want to hear.
“if you're angry at us for that, A, anger is not conducive to good investment outcomes. And perhaps, rather than looking at us, you might consider, you know, that enemy of yours between your left and right ears and what it means that your response is emotional anger here.”
Nuclear fuel is unique among energy sources in its ability to store decades of power in a reasonably-sized warehouse compound, enabling energy independence without relying on coal, hydrocarbons, rivers for storage, or weather-dependent sources
“if a country that doesn't have a lot of coal or hydrocarbons, uh lot of rivers, they can store, you know, decades of power in a in a reasonable warehouse-size compound in terms of nuclear fuel. So, if you are serious about energy independence, and I think pretty much everybody in the world is now, then nuclear is the absolute hands-down, you know, no questions, don't need the sun to shine, don't need the wind to blow, don't need climate weather.”
Popular support for nuclear power in Japan has grown from a low of 26% (post-Fukushima) to a recent high of 69%, suggesting that public opinion is shifting toward accepting nuclear energy despite accident concerns, and political leaders may not face significant opposition to new plant construction.
“popular support for nuclear in Japan has grown from a low of 26 to a recent high of 69%.”
Platinum and palladium are industrial metals whose demand is elastic, making them unsuitable for the 'monetary metals' classification alongside gold and silver, which have inelastic, alternative-currency-based demand.
“I think it will be reflected quite um strongly in monetary metals, which in my view is only gold and silver, not platinum and palladium.”
Rick would prefer to have a mellow life for the remainder of his time on Earth, even at the expense of nominal gold prices, because the scenarios that drive gold higher are invariably difficult for one's standard of living
“I'd love to be wrong. The set of circumstances that makes the gold price go up is invariably difficult on other parts of your standard of living. Uh, at 873, I would prefer to have a mellow life for the rest of my time on Earth. Uh, even at the expense of the nominal price of gold held in my portfolio. I don't believe that that's something I'm going to experience, however.”
Holding cash has real costs in the current environment—earning 400-450 basis points in US dollars while the dollar is losing 8-9% purchasing power annually means the real return is negative 5%, which Rick Rule characterizes as an option premium on the ability to capitalize on future dislocations.
“make no mistake, holding cash has real costs. You are getting paid in US dollar terms 400 450 basis points in a currency where I believe your purchasing power is deteriorating by 8% or 9%, which means you aren't making 4%. You're losing 5%. Please understand that. I consider that 5% negative yield to be an option premium on having the tools to take advantage of a circumstance that would otherwise take advantage of you.”
Rick Rule came into 2009 with both substantial cash and courage (being an older investor), and 2009 was the single most successful year in his investment career in percentage terms, suggesting the value of being positioned for and capitalizing on massive dislocations.
“unlike the subscribers that Lobo talked to in 2008, uh, I came into 2008 with a lot of cash, uh, and I also came in with some courage because I was an old guy and 2009 was the single most successful year in percentage terms in my investing career ever. It was a very very very good year.”
Rick Rule references a 1980s-1990s precedent where Doug Casey encouraged him to purchase seaside villas in Dubrovnik during the Serbian-Croatian conflict for under $100,000, expecting them to appreciate to $3 million, applying the principle of buying during localized wars in high-quality real estate markets.
“the Serbia-Croatia conflict. When the Serbian forces began to shell Dubrovnik, Doug Casey called me up, which was a rare event. And he said, 'Rick, we need to go to Dubrovnik.' And I remember saying, 'Are you effing crazy?' And he said, 'Um you buy when there's blood in the streets. I'm sure that there is a family in Dubrovnik that would sell us a seaside villa in Dubrovnik for less than $100,000. And if we're lucky enough that the house doesn't get hit by a shell, it'll likely be $3 million in the not-too-distant future.'”
Rick Rule distinguishes between three separate functions of precious metals in his portfolio: saving in gold, maintaining liquidity in US dollars, and speculating in silver—each serving a distinct purpose
“precious metals' utility for us is not as a savings vehicle. Uh for me, at least, uh I save in gold. I maintain liquidity in US dollars. I speculate in silver. All different functions.”
The global oil market has been surviving on floating inventories and strategic reserves for the past 3 weeks due to conflict disruptions, and if conflict continues 2-3 months, pricing for oil, LNG, helium, nitrogen, and nitrogenous fertilizer will reach 'strange levels' with severe economic consequences that Rick Rule is not prepared to speculate on.
“For the last 3 weeks, the world has existed on floating inventories of oil and strategic reserves in some countries like Japan, 250 days. If this conflict goes on for 2 or 3 weeks with regards to uh energy availability and pricing, you ain't seen nothing yet. You are seeing a $40 a barrel premium to Brent on floating crude that can be delivered to Asia today. If you pump If you punch oil in Bloomberg, you see 110 bucks. If you're a buyer in Singapore, you see 150.”
The underlying case for oil stocks (years of underinvestment in production capacity creating supply constraints) remains stronger than ever despite the war, because conflict is actually exacerbating the underinvestment problem by destroying infrastructure—but this is now obvious to everyone, so prices don't reflect bargains.
“the thesis here is the years of underinvestment in the space. And that this has to have consequences. But that hasn't changed. The war hasn't changed that at all. If anything, it exacerbates the problem cuz you're blowing up what infrastructure you did invest in, or a good chunk of it anyway. So, the underlying case here, even though the hate is gone, is is stronger than ever. Um but that's obvious to everybody and and you know, the prices are are not cheap.”
There are currently no bargains among the best players in the mining sector—any appearance of a bargain in top-tier gold/silver producers indicates Mr. Market is signaling something is wrong with that company, and investors should investigate before buying.
“there's no bargains in the sector. Not amongst the best uh, players in the space. If you've got some bargain in gold and silver right now, Mr. Market is telling you there's something wrong with that company and you want to pay attention to that.”
Investors with shorter time horizons should trim energy positions now to lock in gains, accepting some upside sacrifice if conflict extends, rather than hold into potential government wealth confiscation—this is taking 'a big fat slug out of the middle' of the move rather than trying to catch the absolute bottom and top.
“I guess I would tell people Jesse who were listening to you and I three or four months ago whose time preferences are shorter uh that this would be a time to be trimming their energy positions. Understanding that you might give up uh absolutely J-curve upsides if this war continues.”
Currently, WTI crude trades at $110, but buyers in Singapore see $150 per barrel due to a $40 premium on floating crude deliverable to Asia, reflecting massive risk premium for supply disruption
“You are seeing a $40 a barrel premium to Brent on floating crude that can be delivered to Asia today. If you pump If you punch oil in Bloomberg, you see 110 bucks. If you're a buyer in Singapore, you see 150.”
Rick Rule is currently focused on acquisition candidates and single-asset producers where valuation arbitrage could emerge from takeover premiums, rather than highest-quality established producers, given portfolio concentration in top-tier companies.
“I have emphasized for the last while very high quality companies. Uh and I would say by now that my portfolio is uh let's say overstuffed. Uh at at at the very very very peak uh of companies. What I'm looking for now is companies that have reasonable valuations uh and companies that would be logical acquisition candidates for other for other companies. Where I either get valuation arbitrage between the multiples paid by the biggest and the best, or I see the biggest and the best take over the smaller companies.”
Lobo Tigre would welcome buying oil stocks opportunistically if a presidential tweet or other shock knocked oil prices down 30%, or if peace declarations caused oil to correct 40-60%, because the underlying structural constraints (underinvestment, infrastructure damage) would remain, setting up subsequent rallies.
“if some presidential tweet knocks oil down 30%, I think that would be an opportunity. If the end of the war actually happens and and you know, markets always overreact. If the end of the war happens and and oil drops 60%, I you know, 50%, 40% I think that would be an absolute gift because all these other things are still in place.”
If the Iran-US conflict drags on for months or years (beyond short-term liquidity crises), safe haven demand for gold and silver will dominate other considerations like Fed interest rate decisions, driving precious metals significantly higher.
“the scarier it gets, the more the safe haven demand really, I think, starts trumping other considerations. Whether the Fed might cut or raise by 25 basis points is really a small consideration when you're worried about maybe having that thermonuclear war insurance triggered.”
Lobo Tigre recently sold nearly all of his mining and precious metals stocks (including Wheaton Precious Metals and Agnico Eagle—the 'cream of the absolute cream') at cyclical highs, not to exit the sector permanently, but to raise cash for deploying in subsequent opportunities, giving him 10x the cash to invest compared to his inception 8 years ago.
“I recently got a lot of more rotten tomatoes by telling people that I was rotating out not of gold and silver, haven't sold an ounce of bullion, but I sold almost all of my stocks. I even sold, gasp, Mr. Rule, my Wheaton Franco, and um Sorry, I'm I'm blank. Agnico. The the cream of the absolute cream. I I bought them at cyclical lows. We were near cyclical highs. I took the money. If we get this waterfall event, this will set the stage. Like I have 10x my cash to invest since inception 8 years ago.”
Rick would dearly like to see broad-based panic in private credit markets, particularly in conventional financial services and natural resources (two industries he understands deeply), to generate yields back to 14-15% levels that would justify the credit risk.
“That's not sufficient to justify the risk. It's simply not sufficient to the risks. If those yields went back up to 14 or 15, I'd love to be back in that market. I mean, I would dearly, dearly, dearly love to be back in that market. So, one place where I see emerging hate is private credit. Uh it is not hated enough to tempt me back in, but it's a wonderful fantasy of mine.”
Lobo does not believe the US or Israel will deploy nuclear weapons against Iran reactors, as the radiation dispersion would affect the entire Persian Gulf region and harm all countries, creating universal incentive to avoid nuclear escalation. He expects conventional attacks on bridges, roads, and energy infrastructure instead.
“I don't think the US or Iran is going to Sorry, or Israel is going to nuke Iran. I think they will avoid any unpleasantness around reactors that spreads to the, you know, you blow something up big and you spread radiation all over the Persian Gulf. You know, that doesn't the radiation doesn't care about the borders. That's very bad for everybody around the world. Uh I think they'll be very, very careful. I think they'll be aiming for bridges and roads, conventional plants, other things.”
Platinum group metals (PGMs) have surprised Lobo with their recent outperformance, tracking monetary metals upward, increasing his interest in PGMs as a potential buying opportunity in industrial metals going forward.
“And oddly enough, the the PGMs surprised me in this last round at how well they did tracking, to my mind, the monetary metals when they went vertical. So, if there's an opportunity in industrial metals going forward, I'm more interested in loading up on PGMs than I would have been in our previous interview.”
Rick Rule does not believe a 'great catastrophe' will occur in 2026, but he thinks the probability of an equity market reset has increased due to accumulating 'black swans'
“I'm not one like Lobo who says that we're going to have a great catastrophe in 2026, but I think the probability has increased. Uh we look around us for black swans. Uh there's flocks of them out there.”
Lobo Tigre has uranium as the only stock on his shopping list currently and is looking to add more; he sees this as the clearest investable trend emerging from the crisis
“The only stock on my shopping list right now is uranium stock and I'm looking to add more. That's it, you know.”
In January 2026, when mining stocks were soaring vertically, Lobo correctly warned that corrections always come and mining stocks would not be exempt from downside, even though they provide leverage on the upside. The reminder prevented overconfidence during a euphoric period.
“When the stock was going at hockey stick vertical, right? And people were saying, 'Oh, yeah, the stocks are still undervalued, you know, they're going to the moon.' And my thought was, 'Yeah, but when the correction comes, there's always a correction. Nothing goes straight up forever, the stocks will not be exempt.'”
Rick Rule is skeptical of his ability to predict the rationality of political leaders (Trump, Netanyahu, etc.) and has been wrong about such predictions in the past (Russia invading Ukraine, Trump attacking across Strait of Hormuz), so he declines to forecast the probability of nuclear weapon use in the Iran conflict.
“I'm not very good at discounting the stupidity of political leaders. So, I don't want to speak to Mr. Trump or Mr. Netanyahu acting rationally. Uh, I didn't believe that they would that Russia would be dumb enough to invade Ukraine. I didn't believe that Trump would be dumb enough to chuck a missile across the Straits of Hormuz. So, my track record is over two so far.”
Rick Rule offers a money-back guarantee on his Rule Classroom copper boot camp (April 16th, $99) and his Natural Resources Investment Symposium (July 6-10, Boca Raton), with a historical refund rate of approximately 0.1% (1 in 1000) across 30 years, indicating high satisfaction with content quality.
“we have the upcoming copper boot camp on April 16th, where we spend 8 hours teaching you all things copper. $99 charge. If you think for any reason you didn't get your $99 worth, let us know. We'll give you your $99 back. In 30 years, by the way, of making money-back guarantees, we've had to refund about 1/10 of 1% of the tuitions that we've charged.”
Rick currently holds significant cash reserves, partially because he sold a real estate portfolio aggressively in 2022 when interest rates began rising and has been unable to redeploy capital, and partially because he expects rising equity market reset probabilities over time.
“I have a lot of cash and partially I have the the cash because I've been opportunity constrained. Partially I have the cash because as Lobo suggests, uh, I think the possibilities of an equity market reset grow greater over time.”
Lobo is not currently interested in buying mining stocks; the recent selloff is not a sufficient capitulation to warrant entry. He would only 'back up the truck' (load up aggressively) if a true capitulation event occurs, creating a more obvious asymmetric opportunity.
“I'm I'm not saying I wouldn't be happy to buy more on sale. I'm saying the current minor retreat really is not a sale in my view. And um I would love to um have that opportunity to to back up the truck and and load up again on these stocks. I just don't think we're there yet.”