Ode to dread: Europe after Trump
What this covers
This week European leaders have lined up to charm Donald Trump. But the broad smiles belie a bigger fear: what would it mean for the continent’s security if America forsakes its security guarantees (https://www.economist.com/international/2025/02/25/can-europe-confront-vladimir-putins-russia-on-its-own?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners)? What the pull-out of French (https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/02/01/frances-bitter-retreat-from-west-africa?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) forces will mean for Africa (10:56). And the Maha Kumbh Mela (https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/02/27/how-overt-religiosity-became-cool-in-india?utm_campaign=a.io&utm_medium=audio.podcast.np&utm_source=theintelligence&utm_content=discovery.content.anonymous.tr_shownotes_na-na_article&utm_term=sa.listeners) shows how piety became political in India (18:55).
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The Economist's Intelligence programme presents three geopolitical developments reshaping global security and cultural politics: Europe faces urgent military vulnerabilities as American security commitments weaken, France's withdrawal from Africa enables Russian influence while failing to improve regional security, and Hindu nationalism in India politicizes religious practice by portraying Modi as a custodian of Hindu faith.
- European NATO armies are severely under-strength and dependent on American military enablers (intelligence, airlift, command-and-control) that cannot be quickly replaced
- French counter-terrorism operations in the Sahel failed to reduce jihadist violence, and their replacement by Russian mercenaries has worsened civilian casualties without improving security outcomes
- The Maha Kumbh festival's 2025 transformation from poor pilgrimage to elite spectacle reflects Hindu nationalism's success in making Hinduism a symbol of patriotism, with Modi portrayed as its guarantor
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Any European military deployment in Ukraine would require very significant American support through military 'enablers'—intelligence assets, airlift, sealift, logistics, command and control infrastructure—capabilities that fundamentally cannot be rapidly developed or purchased off-the-shelf.
“any European deployment in Ukraine would frankly need very significant American Support not with boots on the ground but with all of the things we call them enablers usually in military talk that make those boots possible and that level of dependency it's becoming really clear is exceptionally high”
Most European armies cannot generate even one combat-capable brigade, which consists of 3,000-5,000 troops, while Ukraine has approximately 250 brigades across all sides, highlighting the severe force-generation gap European NATO members face.
“most European armies can't even generate one combat capable Brigade to give you a sense of what that is that's about you know 3 to 5,000 men in Ukraine on both sides on all sides there are perhaps 250 brigades in the country not all of them full strength”
Hinduism has become more culturally aspirational in India both through social media (with families making pilgrimages after seeing reels and videos) and through political framing by the ruling BJP, which has assumed the role of Hinduism's custodian by promoting Hindu causes as public policy priority.
“social media definitely played a role in making Hinduism more aspirational for example the family I spoke to had made the journey after seeing reals and videos on social media but Hinduism has also become more aspirational because of politics India's ruling party the barata janata party has assumed the role of hinduism's custodian it promotes Hindu causes as a public policy priority”
European leaders increasingly fear that the American president doesn't care much about the fate of Europe, as Germany's presumptive next leader Friedrich Merz put it—'5 to midnight'—indicating Europe is running out of time to secure itself without American support.
“there's a growing fear in Europe that America is turning its back on the security umbrella that it's extending did over the continent for 80 years”
Translating increased defense spending into actual military capability is difficult independent of the financial cost because structural obstacles exist: recruitment shortfalls, manpower gaps, and inability to rapidly develop complex command and control systems.
“paying for an extra 1 two 3 percentage points of GDP is a big deal but actually also translating cash into raw military cap cap ability that's also really difficult”
Economic growth in India has enabled more Indians to afford religious participation: many more people could travel to Prayagraj because major Indian airlines laid on special daily flights, and many people now own cars allowing them to drive to the festival, with one family driving 1,200 km to attend.
“Indians have always been religious but now they have more money to spend on their faith for example many more people could travel to priage this time because all of India's big aines had laid on special daily flights to the city lots of people also have cars now allowing them to drive to the festival I spoke to one family who had driven 1,200 km across the country just to be there”
French military presence in Africa is characterized by 'F AF'—a cozy web of personal, business, and military ties between France and its former colonies—an 'absurd anachronism' where France operated military operations in 16 African countries, acting as regional policeman with permanent bases long after these countries secured independence in the 1960s.
“it's known as F AF in fact this kind of cozy web of personal business and Military ties between France and its former colonies and it was something of an absurd anacronismo military operations in 16 African countries basically acting as a regional policeman keeping permanent bases on the continent long after these countries had secured their independence in the 1960s”
Beyond the financial challenge of paying 1-3 additional percentage points of GDP for defense, the real difficulty is translating cash into actual military capability, including manpower recruitment and training.
“there's the money problem obviously paying for an extra 1 two 3 percentage points of GDP is a big deal but actually also translating cash into raw military cap cap ability that's also really difficult and why is that so difficult loads of reasons”
Any European military deployment in Ukraine would require very significant American support with enablers—intelligence, airlift, sea lift, logistics, headquarters, command-and-control for air operations—that Europe cannot generate independently and that fundamentally creates exceptionally high dependency on America.
“any European deployment in Ukraine would frankly need very significant American Support not with boots on the ground but with all of the things we call them enablers usually in military talk that make those boots possible and that level of dependency it's becoming really clear is exceptionally high”
European armies underwent a massive force reduction following the Cold War in the 1990s when they cut defense spending dramatically and hollowed out their forces, creating structural deficits that persist decades later and cannot be rapidly reversed.
“in the Cold War Europe had big flourishing armies with decent stocks of ammunition good levels of training preparation and that all changed in the 1990s and they cut their defense spending massively hollowed out their forces and the result is what we have today”
European military weakness stems from the 1990s and afterwards when European countries cut defense spending massively and hollowed out their forces after the Cold War ended, reversing the earlier period when Europe had big, flourishing armies with adequate ammunition stocks and training.
“in the Cold War Europe had big flourishing armies with decent stocks of ammunition good levels of training preparation and that all changed in the 1990s and they cut their defense spending massively hollowed out their forces and the result is what we have today”
German chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly raised the question of whether Germany must now discuss compensation for loss of American nuclear shield with Britain and France, Europe's two nuclear-armed powers.
“we saw this raised publicly by Friedrich Merz the incoming presumptive German chancellor who said actually this means now now that Germany has to start talking to Britain and France who are the two European nuclear armed Powers about how to perhaps compensate for any loss of the American nuclear Shield”
During Operation Barkhane (France's counter-terrorism operation spanning a decade) insecurity grew exponentially, indicating that French military involvement was a failure by the metric of reducing jihadist violence.
“it's certainly the case that over the past decade or so since the start of what what is known as operation ban the French Le counterterrorism operation insecurity has grown exponentially so on that score clearly French involvement militarily has been a failure in the sahal”
America deploys tactical nuclear weapons (B61 gravity bombs) around Europe, which European air forces including German and Belgian forces practice carrying, providing protection against nuclear-armed adversaries like Russia.
“America has also tactical nuclear weapons smaller nuclear weapons called b61 gravity bombs dropped from aircraft which it deploys around Europe European Air Forces like the German air force the the the Belgian Air Force they practice carrying those nuclear weapons and obviously if you're dealing with a nuclear armed country like Russia it gives you a certain protection to have nuclear weapons”
France maintained military presence in 16 African countries acting as a regional policeman, keeping permanent bases long after those countries had gained independence in the 1960s.
“military operations in 16 African countries basically acting as a regional policeman keeping permanent bases on the continent long after these countries had secured their independence in the 1960s”
European leaders are increasingly concerned that the American president does not care much about the fate of Europe and the security umbrella that the US has extended over the continent for 80 years is no longer assured.
“there's a growing fear in Europe that America is turning its back on the security umbrella that it's extending did over the continent for 80 years”
A 2021 Pew Research survey found that nearly two-thirds of Hindus said that being truly Indian meant being Hindu, reflecting the association between Hindu nationalism and national patriotism.
“in 2021 a survey by Pew research found that nearly 2third of Hindus said that being truly Indian meant being Hindu”
American tactical nuclear weapons (B61 gravity bombs) are deployed around Europe and practiced by European air forces (German, Belgian), and if the American nuclear umbrella is withdrawn, Europe faces a strategic problem because British and French nuclear arsenals are very small and Britain's deterrent is partially dependent on American support, while France's isn't formally devoted to NATO.
“America has also tactical nuclear weapons smaller nuclear weapons called b61 gravity bombs dropped from aircraft which it deploys around Europe European Air Forces like the German air force the the the Belgian Air Force they practice carrying those nuclear weapons and obviously if you're dealing with a nuclear armed country like Russia it gives you a certain protection to have nuclear weapons if that Shield isn't assured in the future then I think you have a problem”
The prolonged and overbearing French military presence in the Sahel gave rise to widespread anti-French sentiment in the region, which was then fanned by Russian propaganda, creating conditions for military regimes to force France out and invite Russian mercenary forces (Wagner group) to replace them.
“that prolonged presence somewhat overbearing presence that French had in this part of the world gave rise to anti-french sentiment quite widespread which was then fanned in more recent years by Russian propaganda because of that military regimes in the region have forced France out of Mali m Bina Faso and invited Russian mercenary forces Vagner the Vagner group to replace them”
Military leaders in the Sahel region (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad) welcomed France's departure as an end to 'neocolonial hangover'—the legacy of French military and political influence in former colonies—but the real debate is what the disorderly, sudden French withdrawal means for regional security facing jihadism, separatism, and military rule.
“France's departure was welcomed by military leaders in the sahal region marlei bikina Faso n now Chad as an end of a kind of neoc colonial hangover the debate though really is what this fairly disorderly sudden withdrawal from the region means for the security of a part of the continent facing jihadism separatism and military rule”
European defense strategy should focus on identifying which areas create maximum American dependency and specifically targeting those gaps so that in a future conflict when America says 'I'm out,' Europe doesn't have to call Washington for critical capabilities.
“it's about thinking where are the areas that we are most dependent on America and how do we specifically Target those gaps so that when in a future conflict or a future War America says sorry I'm out that you don't have to call Washington for these things”
Britain's nuclear deterrent is partially dependent on America for support, as Britain leases missiles from a common pool, whereas France has a more autonomous arsenal but does not formally commit it to NATO at present.
“one being that British and French arsenals are very small another problem is that Britain's deterrent is somewhat dependent on America for support we lease the missiles from a common pool the French have a more autonomous Arsenal but they don't at present devote it formally to Nato”
While Sahel military regimes claim France was undermining their counter-jihadist efforts, the objective record shows that during Operation Barkhane (France's counter-terrorism operation), insecurity grew exponentially—suggesting French military involvement was a failure by its own stated objectives.
“I think that's probably a simplification but it's certainly the case that over the past decade or so since the start of what what is known as operation ban the French Le counterterrorism operation insecurity has grown exponentially so on that score clearly French involvement militarily has been a failure in the sahal”
Military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have established the Alliance of Sahelian States as a new regional security bloc and putative confederation to restore sovereignty and assert they can now fight jihadism without French constraints.
“there the response has been to establish the alliance of sahelian states which is a sort of new Regional block or security pack the putative Confederation even that's made up of Marley Bina Faso and ner they sort of trumpet it as a way of restoring their sovereignty they argue that France was undermining rather than Aid their fight against jihadism and now they feel and claim to be unrestrained in what they can do to fight Rebels”
Armies in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have signed partnership contracts with the Russian Wagner mercenary group for military operations and training, and Wagner mercenaries notably offer worse civilian protection than French troops or UN peacekeepers.
“the Army in Mali but also Bina Faso and N have signed partnership contracts with Russian mercenaries the Vagner group for military operations and and training and these mercenaries notoriously don't offer much protection for civilians certainly care less for them than the French troops or the UN peacekeepers who came before them”
Civilian casualties have increased massively since the end of Operation Barkhane, with grim reports of torture, corpses being booby-trapped, and heads being stuck on poles as warnings against collaboration with jihadists.
“the increase in civilians targeted has grown massively since the end of operation bean and some really Grim horrible stories have emerged in the last couple of years of torture corpses being booby trapped heads being stuck on poles as a warning against potential collaboration with jihadist”
Regulators found fecal matter in the Ganga river at Prayag, indicating severe water pollution despite the festival's religious purpose of spiritual cleansing.
“the water in which pilgrims take a dip is very polluted last month regulators found feal matter in the river”
European armies can barely generate one combat-capable brigade (3,000-5,000 troops) despite the presence of perhaps 250 brigades in Ukraine, demonstrating severe European military under-capacity relative to conflict requirements.
“most European armies can't even generate one combat capable Brigade to give you a sense of what that is that's about you know 3 to 5,000 men in Ukraine on both sides on all sides there are perhaps 250 brigades in the country”
NATO war plans indicate that to fight credibly, European forces would need to spend above 3% of GDP on defense, with NATO Secretary General sometimes using the figure of 3.7%, accounting for the loss of some American capabilities if America shifts focus to Asia.
“if you look at the NATO War plans as they exist the consensus is if you want to have the forces to fight with them credibly you would need Europe to spend above 3% of GDP on defense the figure that the NATO Secretary General is Sometimes using his 3.7%”
Sahel military regimes (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) have established the Alliance of Sahelian States, a new regional security bloc or 'putative confederation' that they trumpet as restoring sovereignty and enabling unrestrained military approaches to security crises without external imposition.
“there the response has been to establish the alliance of sahelian states which is a sort of new Regional block or security pack the putative Confederation even that's made up of Marley Bina Faso and ner they sort of trumpet it as a way of restoring their sovereignty they argue that France was undermining rather than Aid their fight against jihadism and now they feel and claim to be unrestrained in what they can do to fight Rebels they now can undertake kind of a full bore militaristic approach to the security crisis in the SEL”
For a Hindu nationalist party like the BJP, the Maha Kumbh festival was the perfect stage to demonstrate Hindu credentials, with images of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath (Uttar Pradesh leader, where the festival took place) distributed everywhere.
“for a Hindu nationalist party like the BJP the mahak MAA was the perfect stage to demonstrate its Hindu credentials images of Narendra Modi India's prime minister and Yogi Adian the leader of utar Pradesh where the mahak was taking place were everywhere”
The Maha Kumbh, a Hindu festival held once every 12 years at the confluence of the Ganga and Yamuna rivers, is traditionally believed to cleanse sins through ritual bathing but has become dramatically more popular and fashionable among India's elite (actors, cricketers, business titans) in its 2025 edition compared to being historically perceived as crowded, dirty, and for poorer Indians only.
“the mahak MAA has traditionally been perceived as something only poorer Indians attend it was deemed too crowded and dirty for the rich the water in which pilgrims take a dip is very polluted last month regulators found feal matter in the river but this time the festival was embraced by the elite actors cricketers business Titans all made the journey and took a dip they would stay in luxury tents by the Confluence and some even rode a helicopter to witness the festivities from the sky”
According to a 2021 Pew Research survey, nearly two-thirds of Hindus said that being truly Indian meant being Hindu, demonstrating how Hindu nationalist ideology has conflated religious and national identity.
“in 2021 a survey by Pew research found that nearly 2third of Hindus said that being truly Indian meant being Hindu”
For the immediate future, the alliance of military regimes and Russian mercenaries in the Sahel will continue to be a cause of misery for civilians.
“for now though I think it's safe to say that this Alliance of military regimes and Russian mercenaries will continue to be a cause of misery for civilians”
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have signed partnership contracts with the Wagner group (Russian mercenaries) for military operations and training, but Wagner notoriously doesn't offer much protection for civilians and cares less for them than French troops or UN peacekeepers, as evidenced by a massive increase in civilian-targeted violence including torture, booby-trapped corpses, and severed heads displayed as warnings against collaboration.
“the Army in Mali but also Bina Faso and N have signed partnership contracts with Russian mercenaries the Vagner group for military operations and and training and these mercenaries notoriously don't offer much protection for civilians certainly care less for them than the French troops or the UN peacekeepers who came before them the increase in civilians targeted has grown massively since the end of operation bean and some really Grim horrible stories have emerged in the last couple of years of torture corpses being booby trapped heads being stuck on poles as a warning against potential collaboration with jihadist”
Regional negotiations without external influence could bring more lasting peace deals in the Sahel because previous attempts to forge peace accords led by France were seen as external impositions and were unpopular, but would require Sahelian governments to eventually realize they cannot defeat insurgents by brute force alone.
“Regional negotiations without external influence and previous attempts to forge a peace Accord in the region led by France have been seen as an external imposition and were thus very unpopular Regional negotiations without that kind of influence could bring more lasting peace deals that could in the long run reduce violence”
The Maha Kumbh has traditionally been perceived as something only poorer Indians attend because it was deemed too crowded and dirty for the wealthy, but this latest edition was embraced by elite actors, cricketers, and business titans who stayed in luxury tents and some rode helicopters to witness festivities from the sky.
“the mahak MAA has traditionally been perceived as something only poorer Indians attend it was deemed too crowded and dirty for the rich the water in which pilgrims take a dip is very polluted last month regulators found feal matter in the river but this time the festival was embraced by the elite actors cricketers business Titans all made the journey and took a dip they would stay in luxury tents by the Confluence and some even rode a helicopter to witness the festivities from the sky”
France's relationship with its former African colonies, characterized by cozy webs of personal, business, and military ties, is known as 'F AF' and is widely seen as a neocolonial hangover that military regimes in the region have moved to end.
“it's known as F AF in fact this kind of cozy web of personal business and Military ties between France and its former colonies and it was something of an absurd anacronismo”
Since the end of Operation Burham and France's withdrawal, insecurity has continued to spread across the Sahel: Islamic State has entrenched itself in Northern Mali and elsewhere; Burkina Faso and Niger have experienced escalation of deadly attacks against civilians; and Mali experienced major terrorist attacks for the first time in a decade.
“however since the end of operation ban insecurity has continued to spread Islamic State for example has entrenched itself in Northern Mali and elsewhere in the region bikina Faso and ner there has been an escalation of deadly attacks particularly against civilians I was in bamoo just a few weeks ago that's the capital of Mali and a few months back last year there was a terrorist attack on a police academy and a military airport there that's the first time in a decade that there has been a major terrorist incident”
The Dutch Armed Forces are approximately 49,000 personnel, less than one-fifth the size they were during the Cold War, with about 1 in 10 positions unfilled and 2023 enlistment yield of 3,600 soldiers against a requirement of 5,000.
“The Dutch Armed Forces to take one example I think there are about 49,000 people or so that is less than a fifth of the size during the Cold War about one in 10 positions is empty and last in 2023 their enlistment yield did about 3,600 soldiers and they needed about 5,000”
European leaders are meeting in emergency and regular summits in Paris (recently held), London (scheduled for Sunday), and days after, discussing defense spending increases, changes to European Union fiscal rules to allow higher spending, and potential seizure of frozen Russian sovereign assets to fund Ukraine and free up money for European armies.
“there was an emergency Summit in Paris couple of weeks ago there's one in London on Sunday there'll be another one a few days after that and a lot of this is about discussing more defense spending how do you make it happen how do you change the European Union's fcal rules to allow countries to spend more could you seize some portion of the Russian Sovereign assets that were frozen and use them for funneling to Ukraine so you free up more money for your own armies”
Approximately two-thirds of Burkina Faso is now outside the control of the national army, representing a catastrophic loss of state territorial control.
“the really worrying spot is bikina Fasa where about two3 of the country possibly is now outside of the control of the national Army”
The Maha Kumbh provided a perfect political stage for the BJP to demonstrate Hindu credentials, with images of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh leader Yogi Adityanath appearing everywhere before and during the festival.
“for a Hindu nationalist party like the BJP the mahak MAA was the perfect stage to demonstrate its Hindu credentials images of Narendra Modi India's prime minister and Yogi Adian the leader of utar Pradesh where the mahak was taking place were everywhere before the festival”
Officials initially predicted 400 million people would attend the Maha Kumbh, but now claim close to 700 million attended, meaning one in two Indians made the pilgrimage—a figure that is far-fetched and likely exaggerated.
“officials predicted that 400 million people would attend but now they claim that close to 700 million people have made the journey that would mean a far-fetched one in two Indians made the pilgrimage”
The water in which pilgrims take a dip at Maha Kumbh is very polluted, with regulators finding fecal matter in the river.
“the water in which pilgrims take a dip is very polluted last month regulators found feal matter in the river”
France ran a counter-terrorism military operation spanning five African countries from its Mali embassy for nearly a decade, but is now withdrawing all troops by the end of 2025, leaving only a permanent base in Djibouti.
“for nearly a decade France ran a counter terrorism operation spanning five African countries from its Embassy in Mali that involved a sprawling military footprint now France's project has come to an end its troops are withdrawing by the end of 2025 its only permanent base in Africa will be in Djibouti”
NATO war plans consensus indicates Europe would need to spend above 3% of GDP on defense (with some estimates at 3.7%) to credibly fight with current NATO forces, a figure well above existing spending levels.
“if you look at the NATO War plans as they exist the consensus is if you want to have the forces to fight with them credibly you would need Europe to spend above 3% of GDP on defense the figure that the NATO Secretary General is Sometimes using his 3.7%”
France ran a counter-terrorism operation spanning five African countries from its Embassy in Mali involving a sprawling military footprint for nearly a decade, but France's troops are withdrawing by the end of 2025, leaving only a permanent base in Djibouti.
“for nearly a decade France ran a counter terrorism operation spanning five African countries from its Embassy in Mali that involved a sprawling military footprint now France's project has come to an end its troops are withdrawing by the end of 2025 its only permanent base in Africa will be in Djibouti”
In Bamako (Mali's capital), there was a major terrorist attack on a police academy and military airport, the first such incident in a decade, suggesting a significant deterioration in security.
“I was in bamoo just a few weeks ago that's the capital of Mali and a few months back last year there was a terrorist attack on a police academy and a military airport there that's the first time in a decade that there has been a major terrorist incident”
There are tentative signs that Sahel governments may move toward negotiations: Niger's junta sent envoys to jihadist leaders last year, and Mali's authorities have reportedly done the same.
“I mean last year n's Jun sent envoys to jihadist leaders the Maran authorities have reportedly done the same”
Official predictions for Maha Kumbh attendance were 400 million, but authorities now claim close to 700 million people made the journey, a figure that would mean roughly one-in-two Indians (mathematically far-fetched) attended the pilgrimage.
“before the festival officials predicted that 400 million people would attend but now they claim that close to 700 million people have made the journey that would mean a far-fetched one in two Indians made the pilgrimage”
A stampede at the Maha Kumbh on January 29 resulted in at least 30 deaths according to government claims, though other sources suggest the figure is much higher, and some observers have suggested the stampede was partly caused by large areas being cordoned off for elite access to the festival.
“on January 29th there was a stampede the government claims 30 people died but other sources suggest the figure is much higher such stampedes unfortunately ly common at Indian religious gatherings but some people have suggested that this one was partly caused by huge areas being coded off for Elites to attend the festival”
French military presence in the Sahel gave rise to widespread anti-French sentiment that was then fanned by Russian propaganda, leading military regimes in the region to force France out and invite Russian mercenary forces (Wagner) to replace them.
“that prolonged presence somewhat overbearing presence that French had in this part of the world gave rise to anti-french sentiment quite widespread which was then fanned in more recent years by Russian propaganda because of that military regimes in the region have forced France out of Mali m Bina Faso and invited Russian mercenary forces Vagner the Vagner group to replace them”
Despite attempts at militaristic solutions, Sahel governments will likely realize in the medium to longer term that they cannot defeat insurgents by brute force alone and may turn toward negotiations, as evidenced by tentative signs that Niger's junta has sent envoys to jihadist leaders and Mali authorities have reportedly done the same.
“I do think in the longer term maybe medium to longer term we might expect to see genters realizing they cannot defeat these insurgents by Brute Force alone and actually there have been some very tentative sign to that effect I mean last year n's Jun sent envoys to jihadist leaders the Maran authorities have reportedly done the same”
The British Armed Forces announced spending of 2.5% of GDP by 2027, representing the biggest sustained growth in defense spending since the Cold War and the first such increase in 20 years.
“for example the UK just announced it was going to spend 2 a half% by 2027 and that's a huge deal the biggest sustained growth in spending since the Cold War we haven't done that for 20 years”
On January 29th a stampede occurred at the Maha Kumbh in which the government claims 30 people died but other sources suggest the figure is much higher, and some have suggested the stampede was partly caused by huge areas being cordoned off for elites to attend the festival.
“on January 29th there was a stampede the government claims 30 people died but other sources suggest the figure is much higher such stampedes unfortunately ly common at Indian religious gatherings but some people have suggested that this one was partly caused by huge areas being coded off for Elites to attend the festival”
Two primary factors explain the Maha Kumbh's increased popularity and prestige: first, economic growth has given more Indians wealth to spend on religious practice (more airline flights to Prayag, more people with cars enabling 1,200+ km pilgrimages); second, Hinduism has become 'cooler' through social media promotion and political positioning as a symbol of Indian patriotism.
“first is economic growth Indians have always been religious but now they have more money to spend on their faith for example many more people could travel to priage this time because all of India's big aines had laid on special daily flights to the city lots of people also have cars now allowing them to drive to the festival I spoke to one family who had driven 1,200 km across the country just to be there the second factor is that Hinduism has become cooler when I visited the river Confluence I found it to be both like a temple and a theme park”
The UK just announced it will spend 2.5% of GDP on defense by 2027, which is the biggest sustained growth in spending since the Cold War after 20 years of stagnant defense spending.
“the UK just announced it was going to spend 2 a half% by 2027 and that's a huge deal the biggest sustained growth in spending since the Cold War we haven't done that for 20 years”
Despite the Maha Kumbh stampede tragedy, the BJP is doubling down on the event as a huge triumph, demonstrating political prioritization of narrative success over human cost.
“still despite the tragedy the BJP is doubting the event as a huge Triumph and on one metric it definitely will be on the way back from the Confluence I spoke to the family i' had accompanied for the dip they were basking in Positive Vibes and they all thanked Narendra Modi and Yogi Adat for putting on a fantastic event at least for the BJP that is what salvation looks like”
Burkina Faso is the most worrying spot in the Sahel region: approximately two-thirds of the country is now outside the control of the national army, indicating state collapse and jihadist/insurgent expansion.
“the really worrying spot is bikina Fasa where about two3 of the country possibly is now outside of the control of the national Army”
The Maha Kumbh festival has become both like a temple and a theme park, with some pilgrims dipping sanctly, others splashing around, and almost everyone recording things on phones, indicating how social media and secular entertainment values have transformed the religious experience.
“I found it to be both like a temple and a theme park some people were dipping sanly a few were splashing around and almost everyone recording things on the phone”
Swapping French troops for Wagner mercenaries does not appear to be a recipe for regional stability, suggesting that the underlying problem may be inadequate state capacity rather than which external force provides support.
“swapping French troops for the Varner group doesn't exactly sound like a recipe for stability”
The Maha Kumbh festival marks a once-in-12-years auspicious planetary alignment during which taking a dip at the confluence of the Ganges and Yamuna Rivers is believed in Hindu tradition to cleanse one's sins.
“the festival marks a once in 12 years auspicious alignment of the planets during which taking a dip at the Confluence of the ganga and Yuna Rivers is believed to cleanse one's sins”
The nuclear question is a real problem that Europe will have to confront this year, potentially requiring France to formally devote its arsenal to NATO and changes in European nuclear arrangements.
“so you might have to see that change in some fashion the nuclear question I think is one that's really going to confront Europe this year”
Europe is beginning to show real sense of urgency about addressing military vulnerabilities, with emergency summits in Paris, London, and other locations discussing defense spending and structural dependency reduction.
“so we're beginning to see a real sense of urgency in Europe about these problems at long last”