YouTube35m· Apr 2026· cataloged

Energy Markets Are About to Reshape | Doomberg


What this covers

Interview recorded - 30th of March, 2026

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Doomberg.

During our conversation we spoke about the energy market risks, potential regime collapse in Iran, how they've held out for so long, Chinese energy strength, reshaping energy markets and more. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction 2:52 - Energy market risks 5:34 - Extension of market fractures 9:44 - Regime collapse in Iran? 12:05 - US assets for commodities 16:13 - How has Iran held out? 22:07 - Keeping Strait of Hormuz closed 23:44 - Existential crisis for China? 27:22 - China to invade Taiwan? 29:17 - Reshaping of energy markets 31:21 - Increasing storage 33:32 - One message to takeaway?

Doomberg is an independent, widely distributed publication that delivers concise, entertaining, provocative articles centered on energy, finance, and geopolitics. They are a small team of entrepreneurs that started this business after long careers in the industrial sector. With trillions of taxpayer dollars and myriad government mandates thrown at the energy transition, there was a practical voice missing in the traditional media. They started writing in that voice, with the freedom of having no master to serve beyond the foundation of our own principles, experience, and work ethic.

This publication is their passion, and the content is supported by our team’s deep experience in heavy industry, private equity, and the hard sciences. They are entirely reader-supported and have grown to be the most widely read finance newsletter on the Substack platform.

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Sharpest takeaway

The Strait of Hormuz closure signals a structural bifurcation of global energy and financial systems, ending the 50-year petrodollar era as geopolitical power shifts from Western dominance toward a multipolar BRICS-led system, with China far better positioned than Western economies to absorb the disruption.

  • The physical shortage of oil following Hormuz closure destroys the assumption that US Treasuries guarantee access to energy, accelerating de-dollarization
  • China has strategically prepared with coal-to-chemical facilities, 1.5 billion barrels of reserves, and domestic energy infrastructure making it pain-tolerant; Western nations like Australia and the UK are catastrophically unprepared
  • The conflict represents the culmination of 'World War' begun in 2014, with Russia and China providing Iran intelligence and weapons to decisively weaken US hegemony

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0.81

China has built coal-to-chemicals facilities to produce diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline for military needs, reducing dependence on crude oil refining and demonstrating strategic energy self-sufficiency planning

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 3/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

They have built a wave of coal-to-chemicals facilities to produce diesel and jet fuel and gasoline for for their military needs.

0.80

If an oil tanker captain is responsible for crew lives, they will not sail through a hot war zone, making the threat of Iranian attack sufficient to close the strait even without continuous attacks, requiring only the threat.

causalhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 4/4· Doomberg

if I own an oil tanker and I've got crew members whose lives I'm responsible for do I want to be sailing that tanker filled with oil through a hot war zone? Of course not. This is why Taiwan is so vulnerable now. If I own an LNG cargo ship a floating bomb and China says any LNG ship that enters these waters is a legitimate military target. I'm not sending my multi hundred million dollar vessel into that area.

0.75

China has built an electricity grid more than twice the size of America's at incredible speed, providing redundancy and capacity to support both civilian and military infrastructure during energy crises

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

It has built electricity grid that is more than twice the size of America's at an incredible speed.

0.75

China's grid is immune to what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz because it is powered primarily by coal, making it independent of oil supply disruptions.

causalhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

Um its grid is immune to what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz.

0.75

China does not get the majority of its energy from the Middle East; it does not even get the majority of its crude oil from the Middle East. Roughly 56% of China's primary energy needs come from domestically produced coal, and crude oil comes from approximately one-third domestic, one-third from Russia and former Soviet states, and one-third from the Middle East.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

They don't get the majority of their energy from the Middle East. They don't even get the majority of their crude oil from the Middle East. 56% of their primary energy needs come from domestically produced coal. Um oil is a shrinking part of their energy mix. Um their crude oil comes from roughly a third domestic, a third from say Russia and other former Soviet states and a third from the Middle East.

0.75

New Zealand and Australia lack refining capacity for crude oil even if they can physically import it, requiring dependence on Singapore refineries which derive their crude from the Middle East, creating a false sense of security about import diversification

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

in New Zealand, even if they could get, you know, crude oil to the country, they actually don't have the refiners to be able to refine it into what they need. And they go through other parts of Asia which is cut cut things off.

0.70

Taiwan had only 11 days of natural gas inventory before the war broke out, relies on natural gas for 40% of its electricity, and relies on imports for 100% of its hydrocarbon needs, making it extraordinarily vulnerable to either Chinese embargo or the current Hormuz closure.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Taiwan, which had 11 days of natural gas before this war broke out in inventory and relies on natural gas for 40% of its electricity and relies on imports for 100% of its hydrocarbon needs is not only incredibly vulnerable.

0.69

Iran is a powerful country with 90 million people, very mountainous terrain difficult to occupy, a huge technology base, and a civilization measured in millennia, and has known for decades that military confrontation would come and has prepared accordingly.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

Um First of all, Iran is a powerful country, 90 million people, very mountainous, difficult to occupy. Um huge technology base, a a civilization that is, you millennia, measured in millennia. And um it has known for decades that this day would come, and it has prepared accordingly.

0.68

Doomberg views the current Middle East conflict not as a continuation of COVID supply chain issues, but as the next battle in World War which began in 2014 with the civil war in Ukraine and Putin's decision to dump US Treasuries and buy gold, followed by China setting up the Shanghai Physical Gold Exchange to facilitate a move away from the petrodollar toward a multipolar BRICS-led gold-anchored system of international trade.

causalhigh valuefringenovelty 3/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

we view this not sort of as a continuation of COVID at least not in that framework. We view this as the next battle in World War which began in 2014 which is something we have been writing about and presenting about in our Pro Chure presentations for some time that we believe World War really kicked off in 2014 with the with the civil war in Ukraine, I guess is is a way to describe it and the decision by Putin to dump US Treasuries and to buy gold um a few years later in collaboration with the Chinese who of course set up the Shanghai Physical Gold Exchange to facilitate what essentially amounts to a move away from the petrodollar. And a move away from US Treasuries as neutral reserve assets for the settlement of imbalances in international trade and towards a more multipolar BRICS-led gold-anchored system of international trade.

0.68

The freezing of Russian sovereign assets in response to the Ukraine war was a fateful decision that destroyed the political assumption that US Treasuries could be converted into energy on a moment's notice, serving as a warning shot for the sustainability of the petrodollar system.

causalhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

That concern was really destroyed when the fateful decision to seize well, freeze Russian sovereign assets was made in the aftermath of the outbreak of war in Ukraine. But this physical shortage is the death knell for that assumption. The political shortage that arose because of the freezing of Russia's assets was a warning shot.

0.68

In a world where the US has declared that might is right and international law is irrelevant, there is nothing to stop China from implementing an embargo of Taiwan tomorrow.

causalhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

And um in a world where the US has declared that might is right and international law is irrelevant what's to stop China from implementing an embargo tomorrow and what would the US do about it?

0.68

China deliberately misled the rest of the world into believing in green energy while mining and burning coal on an unimaginable scale, burning more than half the world's coal today.

causalhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

There's a reason why China tricked the rest of the world into falling for the green energy trap while it mined and burned coal on an unimaginable scale. Um China burns more than half the world's coal today.

0.68

The US embargo on Cuba is plainly illegal under international law and constitutes an undeclared act of war against Cuba.

normativehigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

That embargo of Cuba, by the way, is plainly illegal. And it's itself an act of war against Cuba. Um I don't think there's any question that under international law the US is at war with Cuba today. Um undeclared as it might be.

0.68

The response of vulnerable countries to the energy crisis should be to pivot toward drilling for their own stuff, storing their own stuff, and preparing for the rainy day, because wind and solar cannot replace what crude oil, diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel do.

normativehigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

our view is of course it's the exact opposite. You need to get serious about drilling for your own stuff, storing your own stuff, preparing for the rainy day because wind and solar simply can't replace what crude oil, diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel do.

0.64

The IEA has described the Hormuz closure as the greatest global energy security challenge in history.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Anthony Fatsis

The IEA has described this as the greatest global energy security challenge in history

0.64

The Strait of Hormuz, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, normally channels around 20% of global seaborne oil trade and is now, for all practical purposes, shut for the first time in modern history.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Anthony Fatsis

The Strait of Hormuz, just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, normally channels around 20% of global seaborne oil trade. It is now, for all practical purposes, shut.

0.64

Trump blinked on the Russia-Cuba tanker shipment issue, allowing a tanker with approximately 750,000 barrels of crude to arrive in Cuba rather than seizing it as an act of war against a nuclear superpower.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Which is interesting. And that a tanker with something like 3/4 of a million barrels of crude has arrived in Cuba. Um we're actually quite relieved that the US did not seize a Russian tanker on the open seas, which would have been effectively an act of war against a nuclear superpower.

0.64

Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand are in a 'world of hurt' due to their extreme vulnerability to the Hormuz closure, being island nations with minimal storage, refining capacity, and hydrocarbon self-sufficiency.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Like look, Great Britain's in a world of hurt. Australia's in a world of hurt. New Zealand, Korea, all the countries I named earlier.

0.64

The 2026 economic environment is already navigating a tariff war, persistent inflation, and a fracturing global order before the Hormuz crisis, making crisis conditions compound pre-existing stressors

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Anthony Fatsis

We entered 2026 already navigating a tariff war, persistent inflation, and a fracturing global order.

0.63

Chinese Telegram channels have been leaking satellite imagery of conflict developments that subsequently appears in Western media 4-6 days later, demonstrating China's intelligence sophistication and deliberate information operations

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

You could go on Telegram and see all of the Chinese Telegram channels with the leaked satellite imageries that then suddenly show up in the Western media 4 or 5 6 days later.

0.61

The longer the Middle East conflict continues, the greater the energy crisis becomes and Trump's jawboning of the markets will have diminishing returns, ultimately leading to a new reality in the Middle East one way or another.

forecasthigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

And so, um the longer this goes on, um the greater the energy crisis. And Trump's jawboning of the markets um, will have diminishing returns and ultimately one way or the other a new reality will emerge in the Middle East now.

0.61

There will be another shale-type revolution in the aftermath of the current crisis as human ingenuity and incentives respond to the energy crisis, similar to shale emerging after oil hit $147 per barrel in 2008.

forecasthigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

Sure, but there will be a wave of supply just as demand is destroyed and alternatives are developed. There will be some version of the shale revolution that will come from this. Shale came in the aftermath of oil hitting $147 a barrel in 2008. Next thing you know, there's a technology that that is salvation.

0.61

China has 1.5 billion barrels of oil in strategic reserve, which at 5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern imports would provide 300 days of supply, sufficient to sustain operations through a prolonged Middle East conflict.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

And they have 1 and 1/2 billion barrels of oil in reserve for this very moment. So if we just say they got 5 million barrels a day of oil from the Middle East and all of that is turned off, which it isn't. 1.5 billion barrels is 300 days of supply which which probably the than enough to get through this war because it's hard to imagine the US keeping forward deployed aircraft carriers for that long in the Middle East and the global economy not collapse.

0.61

After the 1970s oil crisis, within 10 years oil demand was the same, showing the pattern of crisis-driven adjustment followed by resumed growth.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Anthony Fatsis

Yeah, interesting. Cuz yeah, I guess after the oil crisis in the '70s and 10 years later the oil demand was the same.

0.60

How do you define a war as being won? Doomberg defines winning as when one side inflicts more pain than the other side can tolerate, requiring four measurements: how much pain am I inflicting, how much pain can they absorb, how much pain are they inflicting on me, and how much pain can I absorb.

definitionhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 3/4durability 4/4· Doomberg

We define a war as being won when one side inflicts more pain than the other side can tolerate. And that means that you have four measurements that need to be made. Um, and I'll say it in the first person just for clarity. How much pain am I inflicting on my enemy? And how much pain can they absorb? How much pain is my enemy inflicting on me? And how much pain can I absorb?

0.60

Russia and China are helping Iran far more than they're admitting to, far more than is being reported in Western media, and are getting their revenge for US actions in Ukraine by providing intelligence, satellite information, targeting data, air defense missiles, and offensive capabilities to Iran.

factualhigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

One is that Russia and China are helping Iran far more than they're admitting to. Far more than is being reported in the Western media. This is an existential struggle for Iran. And Russia and China view it as in their mind, I suppose, hopefully the culmination of World War. Um the US provided Ukraine with intelligence, with missiles, with unofficially US soldiers on the ground commanded by US generals that launched missiles into pre-2014 Russia repeatedly. Putin has been criticized heavily inside of Russia for for not doing enough in response to that, what they call provocations. Um and they are getting their revenge in Iran. Don't think for a second that's not how it's being uh perceived in the Kremlin. Um yes, of course Russia's providing intelligence, satellite information, targeting data, air defense missiles, offensive capabilities.

0.60

If the US had seized the Russian tanker destined for Cuba, Doomberg believes this would have been a green light special for China to implement blockade policies against Taiwan, accelerating the timeframe for Chinese action.

causalhigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

had the US boarded that tanker, seized it, redirected it, we think that would have been a green light special for China. It's like, okay, if these are the rules, you know, we're going to do the same with Taiwan. They still might. But, um if yesterday had gone differently, um it it would have accelerated the time frame.

0.57

The human endeavor will not be denied: demand for energy will go up and to the right (continue growing), with perhaps a temporary blip from the current war, but 5 years out the world will be 'flushed with abundant energy again.'

forecasthigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

The human endeavor will not be denied. The demand for energy will go up into the right. There might be a blip in energy consumed because of this war, but 5 years from now um the world will be flushed with a with abundant energy again.

0.57

The Arab states have been hit repeatedly by Iranian missiles and drones, Iran has shown incredible ability to hit targets with great precision, it has escalated in parallel to US and Israeli attacks on it, and there are precious few signs of an uprising that US and Israeli leaders convinced themselves would materialize after the decapitation strike in the early hours of the war.

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

The Arab states have been hit repeatedly by Iranian missiles and drones. Um, Iran has shown an incredible ability to hit targets with great precision. It has escalated in parallel to US and Israeli attacks on it. And um, there are precious few signs of the uprising um, that US and Israeli leaders convinced themselves would materialize after the decapitation strike in the early hours of the war.

0.57

There appears to be no viable military option available to the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without unacceptable escalation or extended military presence that would itself trigger global economic collapse

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

There does not appear to us any viable military options to reopen the strait. The Arab states have been hit repeatedly by Iranian missiles and drones. Um, Iran has shown an incredible ability to hit targets with great precision.

0.57

Recent geopolitical events (2014 Ukraine, 2022 Russia invasion, 2025 Hormuz closure, Iran conflict) should be interpreted through the lens of 'punctuated equilibrium'—a system stable for decades suddenly bifurcating into distinct poles as equilibrium breaks

definitionhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 3/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

we framed it in that presentation as punctuated equilibrium. You know in in the biological world a species is very stable for a long time and then a huge event happens and suddenly it splits in two and we we kind of view the oil market as on the path to splitting in two. You know for the past 50 years with you know the aftermath of the Arabian oil embargo and the development of the petrodollar system it was very stable.

0.56

China views the current conflict as a huge opportunity to weaken the US at a time when China is probably going to make a move on Taiwan.

causalhigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Um China views this as a huge opportunity to weaken the US at a time when it's probably going to make a move on Taiwan.

0.56

The global South is convinced that the US, the global dominant superpower, is struggling to bring Iran, characterized as a middle power, to its knees.

factualhigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

We have our own strategies for for sources and methods um whatever you in the West might think is happening we can tell you what the global South is sure is happening which is that the global dominant superpower is um struggling to bring what people thought was a middle power to its knees, i.e. Iran.

0.56

Depending on how things develop in the Middle East, China as the rising power in collaboration with Russia, Iran, and North Korea will have a dominant position in the East Asia and Asian part of the world, while the US will remain the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere and over Europe, with regions like Africa and the Arctic being contested.

forecasthigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

depending on how things go in the Middle East um our view is that China as the rising power in collaboration with Russia and Iran and North Korea will will have a dominant position in the sort of East Asia Asian part of the world and the US will remain the dominant power in the Western Hemisphere and over Europe with regions like Africa and the Arctic being contested um parts of the world

0.56

The likelihood of China invading Taiwan militarily in the next 5 years is low, but the likelihood of China executing a relatively simple embargo of Taiwan resulting in political reunification is almost a certainty.

forecasthigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Oh, I don't think it's going to invade Taiwan. How likely in the next 5 years does it execute a relatively simple embargo of the island to the point where a political arrangement that is tantamount to reunification occurs? In the next 5 years? That's almost a certainty in our view.

0.55

Australia, the European Union, Great Britain, the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea are now staring down the barrel of consequences for taking for granted how efficient the oil and gas markets had become, given their essential role in the economy.

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

Australia, the European Union, Great Britain, um the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, Korea. Um all of these countries now are staring down the barrel of consequences for the taking for granted of just how efficient the oil and gas markets had become.

0.55

The answer to being unserious about energy policy is not to be more unserious through accelerated renewables, but to get serious again by developing domestic fossil fuel supplies.

normativehigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

And we're finding out right now what happens when you're unserious about your energy policy. So the answer to being unserious is not to be more unserious, it's to get serious again.

0.55

There is going to be 'a huge amount of suffering between here and there' (between the current crisis and eventual resolution), which should not be minimized or taken lightly.

factualhigh valueestablishednovelty 0/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

And also, there's going to be a huge amount of suffering between here and there, which we don't want to minimize or uh or take lightly.

0.54

The 50-year run of the petrodollar system is truly coming to an end, and the singular nature of global oil markets will split into at least two, if not more distinct systems.

forecasthigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

And so, um ultimately, it truly is the end of that 50-year run, and we are experiencing a punctuated equilibrium where the singular nature of the global oil markets will split into at least two, if not more.

0.52

Energy sits upstream of everything: wages, inflation, industrial output, wars won and lost.

causalhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Anthony Fatsis

Doomberg has long maintained that energy sits upstream of everything: wages, inflation, industrial output, wars won and lost.

0.52

When you disturb a system that is fundamentally chaotic but gives the appearance of linear behavior for a long period of time, you get really sort of black swan type 10 sigma events, which the world is now facing.

causalhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

when you disturb a system that is fundamentally chaotic but gives the appearance of linear behavior for a long period of time, you get these really sort of black swan type 10 sigma events that the world is facing now.

0.52

Possession is 90% of the law, and the world is about to see a rolling series of suboptimal decisions, protectionism, and hoarding that will make things much worse for countries caught unprepared.

forecasthigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

And um possession is 90% of the law, which was the name of one of our recent articles, 90% of the law. We're about to see a rolling series of suboptimal decisions, protectionism, um that is going to make things much worse for those countries that are caught with their pants down, and there are many of them.

0.52

Refining margins will probably be higher in the coming years as countries increase storage buffers from 30 days to 3 months or longer, extending demand for refining capacity.

forecasthigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Anthony Fatsis

Refining margins probably going to be higher as well as as these countries try and store for rather than having 30 days storage, maybe they'll go 3 months, maybe they'll go to a year like Australia, probably not. But there will at least be a added buffer added

0.52

China is far more able to withstand a closure of the Strait of Hormuz than Western economies are because China's fundamental constraint is pain tolerance—how much economic pain is China willing to absorb to achieve reunification, end US global dominance, and potentially become the world's strongest power.

causalhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 2/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

China is far more able to withstand a closure of the strait than Western economies are and we go back again to pain tolerance. How much economic pain is China willing to absorb to achieve reunification? To achieve the end of US global dominance. To achieve a world where China um ascends to if not a co-power perhaps even the world's strongest power.

0.52

In 5 years, the price of oil will be 'incredibly cheap to the point where you can't give it away,' while rare earths and other artificially stocked-out commodities will also become abundantly cheap.

forecasthigh valuefringenovelty 2/4durability 1/4· Doomberg

And we do think 5 years from now, um the price of oil is going to be incredibly cheap to the point where you can't give it away. But, it'll also be the same with rare earths and everything else that has been artificially uh stocked out because of political reasons.

0.51

An argument is already shaping in countries like Australia about whether the energy crisis means pivoting toward wind and solar faster, but Doomberg believes this argument will prove misguided.

factualhigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

the piece we're writing right now that I I sort of put my pencil down to do this podcast is um there's going to be a big argument. Does this event mean that the world should pivot towards wind and solar and renewables faster?

0.51

It is unlikely that the US will be able to bring down the Iranian regime or achieve regime change, making any military victory purely pyrrhic if achievable at all.

forecasthigh valuecontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

I guess that assumes as well that US can't somehow create change, you know, um, change in in Iran and potentially uh, bring down their current current regime. I imagine that's a very unlikely scenario from from your perspective. Uh, our view is that that is a very unlikely scenario.

0.48

Doomberg did not foresee a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz for a month and counting, but had warned that various countries' hydrocarbon strategies run the risk of catastrophe in the face of a potential event like the one currently unfolding.

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

we did not foresee a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz for a month and counting. So, I don't want to take credit for a prediction that we didn't make. Um but I suspect what you were referring to is the fact that we have been warning various parts of the world that their hydrocarbon strategy runs the risk of catastrophe in the face of a potential event like the one that is currently unfolding.

0.47

Iran has proven it can take out desalination plants across Arab states, hitting one of the largest ones in Kuwait, which Doomberg views as a 'very dangerous escalation.'

normativehigh valuefringenovelty 1/4durability 1/4· Doomberg

Um, Iran has proven it can take out the desalination plants across the Arab states and they just hit one of the largest ones in Kuwait last night in what we think is a very dangerous escalation.

0.47

The US and Israel bombed a university in Tehran over the weekend, prompting Iran to declare that unless the US apologizes and condemns the attack by noon, every American-affiliated university in the region is a legitimate target.

factualhigh valuefringenovelty 1/4durability 1/4· Doomberg

Um, the US and Israel bombed university in Tehran over the weekend and Iran said unless the US apologizes and condemns the attack by noon today every American affiliated university in the region is a legitimate target and they will hit them.

0.45

Preparedness for economic calamity should begin at home, with individuals reconsidering their emergency plans and stocking up for the economic downturn that is coming.

normativehigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

Um this too shall pass is one. Um but also I would say that um if you've been putting off getting prepared for catastrophe, you know, preparedness begins at home. Um reconsider your emergency plans. You know, um stock up for the economic um calamity that's coming cuz it is coming. There will be pain.

0.45

This energy crisis will also result in the same market dynamics with rare earths and everything else that has been artificially stocked out because of political reasons.

forecasthigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

And we do think 5 years from now, um the price of oil is going to be incredibly cheap to the point where you can't give it away. But, it'll also be the same with rare earths and everything else that has been artificially uh stocked out because of political reasons.

0.45

Iran has significantly outperformed US expectations and Trump is caught in a quagmire with very few good options, with Iran still in place after 28-29 days of war, the strait still closed, and no viable military options appearing available to reopen it.

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Our view is that that is a very unlikely scenario. That Iran has significantly outperformed US expectations, perhaps not ours. And that um, Trump is caught in a quagmire with very few good options. Um, we're American citizens. Um, I personally am the father of draft eligible children. Um, so here we are, 28, 29, 30 days into the war, the regime is still in place, the strait is closed. There does not appear to us any viable military options to reopen the strait.

0.43

Doomberg covered China's strategic energy plan in a 2024 Doom Zoom called 'Year of the Dragon, China Through the Lens of Energy' that outlined coal, natural gas from pipelines from neighbors, LNG exposure, domestic and Russian crude oil as a diversified energy portfolio.

factualhigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 3/4· Doomberg

Um China has a strategic energy plan. We covered it all the way back in 2024 in a Doom Zoom called Year of the Dragon, China Through the Lens of Energy. Um coal, natural gas from pipelines from their neighbors, and some LNG exposure for sure. Um domestic crude oil, Russian crude oil, Russian gas.

0.39

The world runs significant risk that neither side submits to the realities on the ground and the war drags out for months and months, resulting in a catastrophe on a scale that is too unmanageable and unimaginable to conceive of.

forecasthigh valuespeaker onlynovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Um the world runs significant risk right now um that neither side um submits to the realities on the ground and this war drags out for months and months. And if it does, well um we're in for a a catastrophe on a scale that is is too unmanageable too unimaginable to to conceive of right now

0.34

Trump's public social media posts and rhetoric are counterproductive to maintaining confidence in US geopolitical positioning and do little to convince the Global South that US hegemony remains credible

factualcontestednovelty 1/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

I would say that Trump's antics and his social media posts are doing little to convince that audience otherwise.

0.27

Doomberg has published a recent piece titled 'After Hormuz' that takes a long view on structural shift that could occur post-conflict, focusing on what markets are getting wrong beyond immediate noise

factualestablishednovelty 0/4durability 1/4· Anthony Fatsis

Doomberg has long maintained that energy sits upstream of everything: wages, inflation, industrial output, wars won and lost. And they've just published their latest piece, After Hormuz, taking the long view on a structural shift that could occur after this conflict is over.

0.24

Louis Gave published a great piece circulated on Twitter (which Doomberg read) analyzing how the guaranteed system of US asset swaps and Treasury trading for global assets is no longer operative due to supply chain challenges and geopolitical risk.

normativeestablishednovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Yeah, Louis Gave had a great piece. I assume that's what you're referring to that I saw being circulated on Twitter.

0.24

The best time to have prepared for energy and economic contingencies was many years ago, and the second best time is today.

normativespeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 4/4· Doomberg

Um the best time to have prepared for such contingencies was um many years ago, and the second best time is today.

0.17

Doomberg's work is available at Doomberg.com, which serves as a one-stop shop for their newsletter, premium pro tier presentations, and Substack Classics Read Aloud.

factualspeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Doomberg.com. One-stop shop for everything Doomberg. Our our newsletter, our premium pro tier presentations, our new um Substack Classics Read Aloud

0.17

Luke Gromen is an analyst whose work Doomberg reads every week and whose analysis on this subject has been valuable.

factualspeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 2/4· Doomberg

Obviously another great content creator analyst that we have been following for many years on this subject is Luke Gromen who whose work we read every week.

0.13

Doomberg is taking a sabbatical over the summer to write a book, planning to reconnect with Anthony Fatsis in the fall.

factualspeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 1/4· Doomberg

I know we talked before we we hit record that I'm I'm taking a bit of sabbatical this summer to to write a book. Looking forward to doing that as well. So, I'll probably reconnect with you um in the fall.

0.13

How vulnerable countries respond to the energy crisis once the war is done will be fascinating to see and will be chronicled by Doomberg.

factualspeaker onlynovelty 0/4durability 1/4· Doomberg

So the answer to being unserious is not to be more unserious, it's to get serious again. Um but that argument is already taking shape even in Australia before the wave of crisis even hits the shore. And um how these countries decide to respond to this once the war is done will be fascinating to see and we will certainly be chronicling it.