Grant Williams and Matt Geiger: Investing During Crises and Navigating a Spirited Metals Market
What this covers
Grant Williams opens this 57-minute conversation by diagnosing a structural shift in financial markets since 2008, arguing that the past 40 years of benign conditions—low rates, strong equities and bonds, easy funding—have ended and investors must reset their approach. He contends that the shift away from owning businesses valued for cash flows toward chasing stock prices will fail in this new regime, and advocates returning to durable companies with defensible competitive positions. Trevor Hall moderates, while Matt Geiger brings practical market analysis, particularly on copper tariffs and their tradeable implications. The two guests largely occupy different registers: Williams traces long-cycle macro theory and portfolio philosophy, while Geiger stress-tests specific sectors and policies against fundamental economics.
The conversation spans the bond market's warning signals against equity exceptionalism, the mechanics of how US copper tariffs would reshape domestic smelting capacity, and gold's role in portfolios—which Williams frames not as a tradeable price but as a store of exchangeable value, like real estate. Geiger treats copper tariffs as politically plausible noise to filter through economic reality: the US already produces 60% of refined copper domestically, and reaching energy independence would require years of capital deployment that may or may not materialize. A notable turn appears when the discussion addresses Tether's entry into mining royalties through a controlling stake in Elemental Altus, which Geiger reads as a potential signal that non-traditional crypto capital may soon flood the sector more broadly. The copper market's 20% intraday volatility on tariff headlines, followed by persistence of a 23–24% spread between US and London prices, grounds the contention that markets remain skeptical of the tariff scenario becoming durable policy.
Grant Williams argues the 40-year bull market was the product of uniquely benign conditions that have now structurally changed since 2008, so investors must return to first principles—owning durable businesses and gold rather than chasing stock prices—while Matt Geiger reads Tether's entry into mining royalties as a possible harbinger of non-traditional capital flooding the sector and treats Trump's copper tariff threat as tradable noise to be stress-tested against fundamentals.
- The benign macro regime of low rates, strong equities/bonds, and easy funding that made investing easy is ending, requiring different thinking.
- Investors have shifted from owning businesses to chasing stock prices/tickers, which won't work in a changed world.
- Gold should be owned for what it can be exchanged for, not traded on price.
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The US already produces 60% of its refined copper domestically, so reaching 100% self-reliance would require closing a 40% gap—achievable either by building roughly three Hayden-sized (or one Kennecott plus one Hayden-sized) smelters, each a 5-10 year, $1-2 billion-plus undertaking including permitting, or by late-stage cathode developers filling the gap, plausibly reaching 70-75% domestic production by end of Trump's term.
“the US already produces domestically 60% of its refined copper. So, we're only dealing with 40 40%... in terms of of imports.”
Geiger's investment process takes a two-to-three-year view: tune out noise, focus on high-quality people with skin in the game and relevant expertise, then assess the asset's economics, company structure, upcoming catalysts, and the delta between current price and fair/expected value to decide whether a bet is worth taking.
“I try to to take two to threeyear views with each of our... investments... focus on highquality people that have good skin in the game... look at the asset... look at the company structure, look at upcoming catalyst, look to price to value... is there a substantial enough delta between the current price and where you think it should be”
Gold should be 'owned, not bought'—treated like a house you don't price-check daily rather than a tradable asset—because its value lies not in its price but in what it can be exchanged for, evidenced by the median US house price in ounces of gold falling 71% since 2003.
“gold is something you own not something you buy”
Clear beneficiaries of copper tariffs are late-stage US-based developers aiming to produce copper cathode (not concentrate)—like Arizona Sonoran, Ivanhoe Electric's Florence ISR project, and Gunnison Copper—and the only two operating US copper smelters (Freeport's Miami smelter and Rio Tinto's Kennecott), while the mothballed Hayden/Asarco smelter owned by Grupo Mexico is likely to be fast-tracked back online.
“the latest stage US developers that are aiming to produce copper cathode and not copper concentrate are a clear beneficiary of of the news. And the other big group um that's a beneficiary would be those that operate smelters uh within the United States.”
Copper's roughly 20% intraday move (closing near 10%) following Trump's tariff comment was the largest single-day move in the copper price since at least 1968 when records began, and the persistent ~23-24% spread between Comex and LME prices shows the market is skeptical the tariff will actually be implemented.
“that is the largest single day move in the copper price going back all the way to at least 1968 where these repers records are first kept.”
The structural break in the financial system occurred in 2008, not 2020; everything done since to hold the system together has been 'successful' only by the narrow measure of keeping equity markets and financial assets elevated, while leaving behind unresolved debt and added fragility that makes a rolling crisis recur in forms like the bond market strains and Silicon Valley Bank.
“I think that was the crisis there. I think that was where the system broke and I think that everything that's been done since to to keep this thing together... has been successful in air quotes if your measure of success is keeping equity markets high”
Gold is unique among financial assets—it has no cash flows and 'does nothing'—so thinking about it like any other financial asset misses the point and requires a distinct framework that does not center on price.
“if you think about gold like every other and in fact any other financial asset, I think you're missing the point because it's unlike any other financial asset. It's it's unique in many many ways.”
The nature of investing has degenerated from owning businesses—valued for cash flows, management, and growth prospects—to merely chasing stock prices and tickers, and in a changed world only the older discipline of owning durable, resilient companies with moats, loyal customers, and margins will work.
“the idea that of the process of investment used to be identifying good companies and good businesses and good management... And now it's about the stock price period. People just want to know whether the stock price is going up.”
Tether is the fifth largest holder of US treasuries and owns roughly $8 billion of physical gold, buying more weekly, plus physical land.
“You're looking at the fifth largest holder of US treasuries... they finally put a number on their gold that they own $8 billion of physical gold... and buying more weekly... they also obviously uh they hold physical land too.”
Tether is generating $3-4 billion per quarter from its stablecoin products and is using its Tether Investments vehicle to deploy excess cash into non-correlated hard assets—precious metals, agriculture, and Bitcoin—to diversify away from its heavy US treasury and dollar exposure, having taken a 52% controlling stake in Elemental Altus Royalties.
“Tether's generating $3 to4 billion per quarter on its various stable coin products. They're just raking in the cash. And the vehicle that Tether used uh called Tether investments should be thought of as an investment vehicle for Tether to in essence deploy the excess cash”
Money flowing into the US market today is not driven by belief in American exceptionalism but by the US being the best available option—'the only game in town'—which is fundamentally different from the opportunity-seeking capital that flowed into 1980s Japan, and the S&P 493 excluding the Magnificent 7 is basically flat on the year.
“money's going into America because it's the best option. It's kind of well, where else are we going to put it... They're going there because the American market is performing the best. And they're two very, very different things.”
The last 40 years have been the most benign investment conditions imaginable—low rates, strong equity markets, strong bonds, expanding balance sheets, and low inflation—which is why making money has been easy, meaning much investment success reflects favorable conditions rather than individual skill.
“we've had 40 years of the most benign I know at times it's been stressful 08 and.com bubble and co but when you step back far enough and look at what's happened over the last 40 years... low rates strong equity markets strong bonds expanding balance sheets low inflation everything that could possibly go right has gone Right.”
America's fiscal situation has been steadily undermined across administrations—Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump—not out of intent to weaken it but as the means to keep the party going or stop the wheels falling off after 2008, so the America of 2025 is fundamentally different from prior eras.
“post 2008 as the... measures to keep things going have gotten more desperate, America's fiscal situation has been steadily undermined by Obama, by Trump, by Biden, by Trump... not necessarily because they think, hey, let's undermine the fiscal strength of America, but let's either keep the party going or stop the wheels falling off”
Many investors own ETFs and tickers without understanding what they hold, such as a short copper ETF holder confused about losses when copper rose 17%, illustrating how the ease of the past regime let people abdicate responsibility for understanding their investments.
“there are tons of people out there who have bought stocks, who bought ETFs, who literally don't even know what they do... I guarantee there are people out there who own a short copper ETF and we're going, hey, why is my position down?”
Americans in aggregate now hold roughly 49% of their wealth in equity markets, making the US an outlier compared to other major markets that sit around 10-13%, which makes the political imperative to keep equities elevated especially strong.
“Americans in the aggregate have 49% of their wealth in the equity markets now which is amazing when you look at other major markets which are all down around 10 11 12 13%.”
The equity market and bond market are telling different stories: equities are at all-time highs with inconclusive evidence of change, while the bond market paints a clearer picture of strain, stress, unworkable finances, and growing nervousness about the United States' ability to fund itself.
“if you look at the bond market, it's a much more it's a much clearer um picture that's being painted of strain and stress and finances that don't quite work anymore and you know increased nervousness about the United States's ability to fund itself.”
Copper tariffs are misguided policy because, unlike rare earths where China controls 90%+ of processing and creates genuine strategic urgency, the US already meets 60% of its copper needs domestically, so tariffs address no pressing supply problem and, all else equal, will be inflationary—harming Americans living on the margins.
“I completely understand the urgency around rare earths in particular. We have China just controlling it having a strangle hold on 90% plus of the of the processing of rare earths... But we already produce 60% of our our domestic copper needs um here at home. So I don't view this as a pressing problem... this will be inflationary.”
Trump's 50% copper tariff comment was a spontaneous answer shouted at a press conference and is not yet stated US policy, but given Trump did not hesitate to slap 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, a scenario where copper tariffs of 50% (possibly negotiated down to 25% via trade deals) actually materialize cannot be ruled out.
“this is not stated policy of the US government, at least as of net as of yet. this is a spontaneous answer to a question that was shouted to him at a at a press conference.”
Tether's choice to deploy its first mining-sector capital into the royalty and streaming business model is significant—of all business models available it chose royalties—which could signal that the royalty/streaming model is becoming more mainstream and that non-traditional, crypto-driven capital may be poised to enter mining en masse.
“we should, you know, leave ourselves open to the possibility that this is a harbinger of non-traditional mining capital whether crypto focused or otherwise coming into the space in mass.”
If you accept both that the world has changed and that the past was uniquely benign, then by definition future conditions will differ, so investors must re-examine their frameworks, commit capital more carefully, and not assume American equity exceptionalism will persist.
“if you accept that to be true, which people did, and you also accept it to be true that the world has changed, there's something that needs to be done here. Because if the world has changed, it means by definition those conditions are no longer going to be the conditions you're dealing with.”
Trying to invest around tariffs is self-defeating; good businesses adapt to tariff shocks—passing costs on or offsetting them—so sticking to durable companies and first principles lets a portfolio withstand the volatility that political or economic decisions create.
“if you are trying to um quote unquote invest around the tariffs, you're making the world way harder for yourself than you need to.”
Investors in tariff-driven US copper plays should ensure their thesis does not hinge on the 50% tariff persisting for 3-4 years; the projects should still work at around $4.25-4.50 copper (closer to the LME price), so that if the Comex-LME premium erases entirely the investment still stands.
“if I were in any of these investments, I would want to make sure that my thesis didn't didn't hinge on this 50% tariff being in in play for the next... 3 or 4 years... make sure it works at, you know, 450 or 425 copper, which is closer to where the LME price is is trading.”
Oil's recent geopolitical premium illustrates spike-and-fade dynamics: a ~12% rise to about $77/barrel on Iran tensions reversed back to roughly $65 within days after US strikes, raising the possibility that copper could similarly spike on tariff news and quickly fade to a still-healthy market around historically strong price levels.
“two weeks ago in the oil market. The geopolitical premium sends barrels of oil up, you know, 12%... and it hits what, $77 a barrel. US drops a bunch of bombs in Iran and by Monday, Tuesday, it's... back to where it was at 65... is it possible we see the same move in the copper copper market”
Mike Green has suggested we may be starting to see a plateau in passive fund inflows, a signal worth watching closely given the unprecedented proliferation of passive funds, ETFs, and leveraged products that did not exist in 1980s Japan.
“Mike Green, your friend Mike Green has talked about maybe we're starting to see a plateau of funds coming into some of these... It's very interesting to hear Mike say that Mike saying that people should be listening.”
The royalty/streaming sector has been a sleepy space for which consolidation has been predicted for two to three years, and the recent wave of deals—Triple Flag's $420 million Orogen takeover for the Silicon 1% NSR, the Sandstorm/Horizon Copper transaction, and the Tether/Elemental stake—suggests that long-anticipated consolidation is now arriving.
“folks like myself have been calling for consolidation within the royalty space for 2 to three years at this point and it's been such a sleepy sector but I mean you hit on a lot of the key points here just in the past 90 days we had the origin deal with triple flag $420 million takeover”
Jim Rickards, who worked with the Trump transition team, claims the administration's tariff flip-flopping is part of a brilliant, deliberate '3D chess' plan, but Williams sees only chaos and observes that other nations' view of America is changing in ways that, unlike in the past, may now matter.
“he said that he'd worked with a Trump transition team and he was adamant that... the Trump um administration have an incredibly complex almost 3D chess plan... I don't see that at all. I see chaos, right?”
The one big beautiful bill is designed to keep asset prices up, keep corporate profits high, and give another leg into the next cycle, primarily benefiting people with assets and corporations while arguably doing little for the lower class.
“the purpose of the bill to keep assets up, to keep corporate profits high, give, you know, another leg into a next cycle, I think that's pretty obvious.”
Elemental Altus is up roughly 35% in the immediate aftermath of the Tether investment and close to 75% year-to-date, placing it among the top three or four best-performing royalty names of the year.
“as of yesterday they were up 35%... off of the back of the the Tether investment and if you look at their year-to- date performance... Elemental is up close to 75%. So, it's in the top three or four... best performing royalty names year to date.”
We're in what feels like a bull market for mining, evidenced by strong attendance and many new faces at the Rule Symposium.
“it kind of feels like we're in a bull market. So, a lot of people here, a lot of new faces.”