Grant Williams and Matt Geiger: Investing During Crises and Navigating a Spirited Metals Market
What this covers
Grant Williams opens this 57-minute conversation by diagnosing a structural shift in financial markets since 2008, arguing that the past 40 years of benign conditions—low rates, strong equities and bonds, easy funding—have ended and investors must reset their approach. He contends that the shift away from owning businesses valued for cash flows toward chasing stock prices will fail in this new regime, and advocates returning to durable companies with defensible competitive positions. Trevor Hall moderates, while Matt Geiger brings practical market analysis, particularly on copper tariffs and their tradeable implications. The two guests largely occupy different registers: Williams traces long-cycle macro theory and portfolio philosophy, while Geiger stress-tests specific sectors and policies against fundamental economics.
The conversation spans the bond market's warning signals against equity exceptionalism, the mechanics of how US copper tariffs would reshape domestic smelting capacity, and gold's role in portfolios—which Williams frames not as a tradeable price but as a store of exchangeable value, like real estate. Geiger treats copper tariffs as politically plausible noise to filter through economic reality: the US already produces 60% of refined copper domestically, and reaching energy independence would require years of capital deployment that may or may not materialize. A notable turn appears when the discussion addresses Tether's entry into mining royalties through a controlling stake in Elemental Altus, which Geiger reads as a potential signal that non-traditional crypto capital may soon flood the sector more broadly. The copper market's 20% intraday volatility on tariff headlines, followed by persistence of a 23–24% spread between US and London prices, grounds the contention that markets remain skeptical of the tariff scenario becoming durable policy.
The mining and precious metals investment landscape is undergoing fundamental shifts driven by changing macroeconomic conditions, non-traditional capital entering the space (exemplified by Tether's Elemental Altus investment), and U.S. policy focus on domestic copper production; successful investing requires returning to first principles of business quality and durability rather than price momentum.
- 40 years of benign conditions for investors are ending, requiring a fundamental rethinking of investment frameworks rather than relying on past success
- Non-traditional mining capital (crypto-focused entities like Tether) represents a potential inflection point signaling mainstream adoption of royalty/streaming models and attracting broader investment attention
- Trump's 50% copper tariff rhetoric and domestic U.S. copper development priorities create winners (domestic cathode producers, smelter operators) but the policy uncertainty and sustainability of tariffs require investments to work at non-tariff prices
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The US already produces 60% of its refined copper domestically, so reaching 100% self-reliance would require closing a 40% gap—achievable either by building roughly three Hayden-sized (or one Kennecott plus one Hayden-sized) smelters, each a 5-10 year, $1-2 billion-plus undertaking including permitting, or by late-stage cathode developers filling the gap, plausibly reaching 70-75% domestic production by end of Trump's term.
“the US already produces domestically 60% of its refined copper. So, we're only dealing with 40 40%... in terms of of imports.”
Geiger's investment process takes a two-to-three-year view: tune out noise, focus on high-quality people with skin in the game and relevant expertise, then assess the asset's economics, company structure, upcoming catalysts, and the delta between current price and fair/expected value to decide whether a bet is worth taking.
“I try to to take two to threeyear views with each of our... investments... focus on highquality people that have good skin in the game... look at the asset... look at the company structure, look at upcoming catalyst, look to price to value... is there a substantial enough delta between the current price and where you think it should be”
If the world has changed from the benign 40-year period and you believe this, you need to fundamentally reconsider your investment framework and whether assumptions about American exceptionalism and equity outperformance still hold—at minimum, you must consciously ask yourself whether your framework should change.
“if you agree to those two things, it surely it should be. I need to recheck my thinking. And do I believe that even though the world's changed, America is going to still be exceptional. The American equities are still going to outperform. And maybe you come back with the answer, yes. Which case, fine. All I'm saying is do the thinking. at least take the time to think, 'Wow, if I really think the world's changed, is there anything I should be doing about that?' That's the question you need to ask yourself.”
Gold should be 'owned, not bought'—treated like a house you don't price-check daily rather than a tradable asset—because its value lies not in its price but in what it can be exchanged for, evidenced by the median US house price in ounces of gold falling 71% since 2003.
“gold is something you own not something you buy”
Clear beneficiaries of copper tariffs are late-stage US-based developers aiming to produce copper cathode (not concentrate)—like Arizona Sonoran, Ivanhoe Electric's Florence ISR project, and Gunnison Copper—and the only two operating US copper smelters (Freeport's Miami smelter and Rio Tinto's Kennecott), while the mothballed Hayden/Asarco smelter owned by Grupo Mexico is likely to be fast-tracked back online.
“the latest stage US developers that are aiming to produce copper cathode and not copper concentrate are a clear beneficiary of of the news. And the other big group um that's a beneficiary would be those that operate smelters uh within the United States.”
Copper's roughly 20% intraday move (closing near 10%) following Trump's tariff comment was the largest single-day move in the copper price since at least 1968 when records began, and the persistent ~23-24% spread between Comex and LME prices shows the market is skeptical the tariff will actually be implemented.
“that is the largest single day move in the copper price going back all the way to at least 1968 where these repers records are first kept.”
Over the last 40 years, investment conditions have been the most benign imaginable with low rates, strong equity markets, strong bond markets, expanding balance sheets, and low inflation, creating an environment where it should have been easy to make money.
“we've had 40 years of the most benign I know at times it's been stressful 08 and.com bubble and co but when you step back far enough and look at what's happened over the last 40 years... we've had the most benign conditions imaginable for four decades low rates strong equity markets strong bonds expanding balance sheets low inflation everything that could possibly go right has gone Right.”
Good businesses are durable and resilient enough to weather tariffs and other policy shocks by either passing costs on to customers or offsetting them through margin management, whereas weak businesses are fragile.
“finding durable, resilient businesses, right? Businesses that the tariffs don't really impact even if they impact them, they are strong enough to weather that. They have margins. They have ways of either passing the tariffs on or they have ways of offsetting them.”
The structural break in the financial system occurred in 2008, not 2020; everything done since to hold the system together has been 'successful' only by the narrow measure of keeping equity markets and financial assets elevated, while leaving behind unresolved debt and added fragility that makes a rolling crisis recur in forms like the bond market strains and Silicon Valley Bank.
“I think that was the crisis there. I think that was where the system broke and I think that everything that's been done since to to keep this thing together... has been successful in air quotes if your measure of success is keeping equity markets high”
Gold is unique among financial assets—it has no cash flows and 'does nothing'—so thinking about it like any other financial asset misses the point and requires a distinct framework that does not center on price.
“if you think about gold like every other and in fact any other financial asset, I think you're missing the point because it's unlike any other financial asset. It's it's unique in many many ways.”
The nature of investing has degenerated from owning businesses—valued for cash flows, management, and growth prospects—to merely chasing stock prices and tickers, and in a changed world only the older discipline of owning durable, resilient companies with moats, loyal customers, and margins will work.
“the idea that of the process of investment used to be identifying good companies and good businesses and good management... And now it's about the stock price period. People just want to know whether the stock price is going up.”
Tether is the fifth largest holder of US treasuries and owns roughly $8 billion of physical gold, buying more weekly, plus physical land.
“You're looking at the fifth largest holder of US treasuries... they finally put a number on their gold that they own $8 billion of physical gold... and buying more weekly... they also obviously uh they hold physical land too.”
Freeport and Rio Tinto operate the only two active copper smelters in the US; Freeport's Miami smelter in Arizona is small, Rio Tinto's Kennecott smelter in Utah is larger; Grupo Mexico's Hayden smelter has been mothballed for decades.
“there's only two. Yeah. There's there's Freeport and their Miami smelter uh in in Arizona, which is a smalish smelter, but it's it's been in operation for for many years. And then Rio Tinto, of course, with their Kakott uh smelter in in Utah. Uh there's actually a third smelter that's been mothballled, I believe, for a couple decades, definitely for quite some time. That's owned by Groupo Mexico. Um and it's the Hayden smelter, also known uh by some folks as the Asarco smelter.”
Tether is generating $3-4 billion per quarter from its stablecoin products and is using its Tether Investments vehicle to deploy excess cash into non-correlated hard assets—precious metals, agriculture, and Bitcoin—to diversify away from its heavy US treasury and dollar exposure, having taken a 52% controlling stake in Elemental Altus Royalties.
“Tether's generating $3 to4 billion per quarter on its various stable coin products. They're just raking in the cash. And the vehicle that Tether used uh called Tether investments should be thought of as an investment vehicle for Tether to in essence deploy the excess cash”
Money flowing into the US market today is not driven by belief in American exceptionalism but by the US being the best available option—'the only game in town'—which is fundamentally different from the opportunity-seeking capital that flowed into 1980s Japan, and the S&P 493 excluding the Magnificent 7 is basically flat on the year.
“money's going into America because it's the best option. It's kind of well, where else are we going to put it... They're going there because the American market is performing the best. And they're two very, very different things.”
The last 40 years have been the most benign investment conditions imaginable—low rates, strong equity markets, strong bonds, expanding balance sheets, and low inflation—which is why making money has been easy, meaning much investment success reflects favorable conditions rather than individual skill.
“we've had 40 years of the most benign I know at times it's been stressful 08 and.com bubble and co but when you step back far enough and look at what's happened over the last 40 years... low rates strong equity markets strong bonds expanding balance sheets low inflation everything that could possibly go right has gone Right.”
America's fiscal situation has been steadily undermined across administrations—Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump—not out of intent to weaken it but as the means to keep the party going or stop the wheels falling off after 2008, so the America of 2025 is fundamentally different from prior eras.
“post 2008 as the... measures to keep things going have gotten more desperate, America's fiscal situation has been steadily undermined by Obama, by Trump, by Biden, by Trump... not necessarily because they think, hey, let's undermine the fiscal strength of America, but let's either keep the party going or stop the wheels falling off”
Many investors own ETFs and tickers without understanding what they hold, such as a short copper ETF holder confused about losses when copper rose 17%, illustrating how the ease of the past regime let people abdicate responsibility for understanding their investments.
“there are tons of people out there who have bought stocks, who bought ETFs, who literally don't even know what they do... I guarantee there are people out there who own a short copper ETF and we're going, hey, why is my position down?”
The world has fundamentally changed since 2008, not primarily 2020, because 2008 was the point where the financial system broke and all subsequent monetary and fiscal interventions have been attempts to hold the system together.
“I think that was the crisis there. I think that was where the system broke and I think that everything that's been done since to to keep this thing together. Um has been successful in air quotes if your measure of success is keeping equity markets high and for a period having bond markets through the roof and and and having financial assets maintain their outperformance.”
The median house price in ounces of gold has fallen 71% since 2003, meaning a house that would have required 100 ounces of gold in 2003 now requires only 29 ounces, demonstrating gold's purchasing power preservation.
“The median house price in ounces of gold has fallen 71% since 2003. So the price of gold is irrelevant. I if I had a 100 ounces of gold in my safety deposit box that would buy me an immediate house 25 years ago. If I open my safety deposit box, I'd only have to take out 29 of them and I could buy that same house.”
America's international standing and how other nations view the US has changed post-2008, moving from a position where 'America was so big and so powerful that however you view us doesn't matter' to a position where international perception and relationships matter more.
“I see um other people who are affected by this. You can see their uh the way they view America changing. And there have been times in the past where that wasn't a problem for America. America was so big and so powerful that however you view us doesn't matter. We're who we are and you're going to have to deal with that. And I, you know, one of these big things about change and this idea that the world has changed. America plays a big part in that.”
Americans in aggregate now hold roughly 49% of their wealth in equity markets, making the US an outlier compared to other major markets that sit around 10-13%, which makes the political imperative to keep equities elevated especially strong.
“Americans in the aggregate have 49% of their wealth in the equity markets now which is amazing when you look at other major markets which are all down around 10 11 12 13%.”
The equity market and bond market are telling different stories: equities are at all-time highs with inconclusive evidence of change, while the bond market paints a clearer picture of strain, stress, unworkable finances, and growing nervousness about the United States' ability to fund itself.
“if you look at the bond market, it's a much more it's a much clearer um picture that's being painted of strain and stress and finances that don't quite work anymore and you know increased nervousness about the United States's ability to fund itself.”
Copper tariffs are misguided policy because, unlike rare earths where China controls 90%+ of processing and creates genuine strategic urgency, the US already meets 60% of its copper needs domestically, so tariffs address no pressing supply problem and, all else equal, will be inflationary—harming Americans living on the margins.
“I completely understand the urgency around rare earths in particular. We have China just controlling it having a strangle hold on 90% plus of the of the processing of rare earths... But we already produce 60% of our our domestic copper needs um here at home. So I don't view this as a pressing problem... this will be inflationary.”
Passive funds and ETFs have become ubiquitous (a new ETF every day, including quadruple leveraged versions) and may be plateauing in inflows, as suggested by market observer Mike Green.
“And now there's a new ETF every day. Yeah. Mo quadruple leveraged from all I care. But it's just it's just it's just insane. And I'm starting to see um you know Mike Green, your friend Mike Green has talked about maybe we're starting to see a plateau of funds coming into some of these Yeah.”
Japan's postal service and pension funds were the main institutional buyers in the 1980s, but nothing like the scale of modern passive funds and ETFs which now have new funds launched daily.
“you had the Japan Postal Service. You had the pension funds in Japan... but it was nothing like nothing like what we see today... And now there's a new ETF every day.”
Gold should be thought of as something you own (like a house) rather than something you buy and sell for profit, and the mindset of ownership is fundamentally different from the mindset of trading or renting.
“as soon as you say I'm I'm going to buy gold, there's a there's an implication that it's for sale, right? If you say I own gold, you know, I own my house. I don't check the price every day thinking I'm going to sell it, right?”
Trump's 50% copper tariff comment was a spontaneous answer shouted at a press conference and is not yet stated US policy, but given Trump did not hesitate to slap 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, a scenario where copper tariffs of 50% (possibly negotiated down to 25% via trade deals) actually materialize cannot be ruled out.
“this is not stated policy of the US government, at least as of net as of yet. this is a spontaneous answer to a question that was shouted to him at a at a press conference.”
The Origin/Triple Flag deal ($420M) involved Triple Flag taking over Origin's business but specifically acquiring the 1% NSR on Silicon project, with rest of Origin's business spun out post-close.
“we had the origin deal with triple flag $420 million takeover there largely for the silicon uh 1% NSR covering that project with the rest of origin's business to be spun out uh spun out post close”
The bond market is currently painting a clearer picture of financial strain and stress than the equity market, showing signs of nervousness about the United States' ability to fund itself.
“if you look at the bond market, it's a much more it's a much clearer um picture that's being painted of strain and stress and finances that don't quite work anymore and you know increased nervousness about the United States's ability to fund itself.”
Money is flowing into American markets not because investors view America as exceptionally well-positioned with great companies, but because the U.S. market is the best option by default and the only game in town, a fundamentally different investment thesis than what drove capital into Japan in the 1980s.
“It doesn't feel like that's the case with America to me. I could be wrong, but the way I the way it feels to me is that money's going into America because it's the best option. It's kind of well, where else are we going to put it, right? It's not going there because they're thinking America is exceptional right now. It's the best place in the world to put money. They're going there because the American market is performing the best. And they're two very, very different things.”
Americans hold 49% of their wealth in equity markets compared to 10-13% in other major markets, making the U.S. an outlier and indicating high concentration of wealth in a single asset class.
“Americans in the aggregate have 49% of their wealth in the equity markets now which is amazing when you look at other major markets which are all down around 10 11 12 13%.”
Tether is a fifth-largest holder of U.S. Treasuries and has publicly disclosed ownership of $8 billion of physical gold, which it is buying more of weekly, indicating a diversification strategy away from pure dollar/Treasury exposure.
“you're looking at the fifth largest holder of US treasuries. Uh it comes out they finally put a number on their gold that they own $8 billion of physical gold... and buying more weekly”
Tether now owns 52% of Elemental Altus after taking an initial stake, signing an option agreement to purchase the Alpha Stream stake in October-November 2025, and acquiring blocks from smaller institutional shareholders.
“Tether now owns 50% excuse me 52% of of elemental um after taking the launch stake um after signing an option agreement uh to purchase uh um Alpha Stream stake which should occur in October, November of this year.”
Investment success requires taking 2-3 year views focused on fundamentals: high-quality management with skin in the game, asset quality that works at normalized prices (not policy premiums), company structure, upcoming catalysts, and price-to-value delta.
“I I try to to take two to threeyear views with each of our with each of our investments. Um, and so that entails tuning out a lot of this noise. Like I just try to go back to basics, focus on highquality people that have good skin in the game and are focused solely on the opportunity at hand and have the expertise to succeed, you know? then look at the asset and like we were talking about with these US-based copper projects, make sure they're not dependent on 550 copper to work. Um, if they work at $425 copper, then the rest of this is is gravy.”
Tether's choice to deploy its first mining-sector capital into the royalty and streaming business model is significant—of all business models available it chose royalties—which could signal that the royalty/streaming model is becoming more mainstream and that non-traditional, crypto-driven capital may be poised to enter mining en masse.
“we should, you know, leave ourselves open to the possibility that this is a harbinger of non-traditional mining capital whether crypto focused or otherwise coming into the space in mass.”
If you accept both that the world has changed and that the past was uniquely benign, then by definition future conditions will differ, so investors must re-examine their frameworks, commit capital more carefully, and not assume American equity exceptionalism will persist.
“if you accept that to be true, which people did, and you also accept it to be true that the world has changed, there's something that needs to be done here. Because if the world has changed, it means by definition those conditions are no longer going to be the conditions you're dealing with.”
Trying to invest around tariffs is self-defeating; good businesses adapt to tariff shocks—passing costs on or offsetting them—so sticking to durable companies and first principles lets a portfolio withstand the volatility that political or economic decisions create.
“if you are trying to um quote unquote invest around the tariffs, you're making the world way harder for yourself than you need to.”
Investors in tariff-driven US copper plays should ensure their thesis does not hinge on the 50% tariff persisting for 3-4 years; the projects should still work at around $4.25-4.50 copper (closer to the LME price), so that if the Comex-LME premium erases entirely the investment still stands.
“if I were in any of these investments, I would want to make sure that my thesis didn't didn't hinge on this 50% tariff being in in play for the next... 3 or 4 years... make sure it works at, you know, 450 or 425 copper, which is closer to where the LME price is is trading.”
The key question is whether US copper tariffs are a pressing policy need given that US already produces 60% of its copper domestically, or whether this is misguided policy targeting a non-problem.
“I completely understand the urgency around rare earths in particular. We have China just controlling it having a strangle hold on 90% plus of the of the processing... But we already produce 60% of our our domestic copper needs um here at home. So I don't view this as a pressing problem.”
The use of policy (rate cuts, money printing) to keep asset prices high, maintain wealth abundance in the hands of the wealthy and asset owners, and benefit corporations has become the consistent objective of the White House regardless of administration.
“everything that comes out of the White House, no matter what administration, is working on a way to prevent something like that happening. Keep the money easy, keep the wealth abundant or, you know, at least in the hands of the people that vote. Um, the wealthy keep getting wealthy.”
The concept of investing in a company and a business has been replaced by investing in a stock (a ticker), and many investors buy ETFs without knowing what they do, making them vulnerable when conditions change.
“when you call it a stock, could be anything, right? It's it's just a ticker. And I know there are tons of people out there who have bought stocks, who bought ETFs, who literally don't even know what they do, but someone says, 'Hey, you know, you should look at this XY Z ETF or I'm buying such and such a ticker. Oh, yeah. I'll have some of that, too.'”
American citizens living on the margins are the actual losers from copper tariffs, as these tariffs will be inflationary and don't address a pressing self-sufficiency problem (unlike rare earths where China controls 90% of processing).
“the losers of this, I would argue, are the American people, at least those that are living on on the margins. Like I completely understand the urgency around rare earths in particular. We have China just controlling it having a strangle hold on 90% plus of the of the processing of rare earths and 99 to 100% if you look at the at the heavies. But we already produce 60% of our our domestic copper needs um here at home. So I don't view this as a pressing problem. You know all else equal this this will be inflationary. So in my view just as a US citizen I view it as a as a misguided policy but as an investor I'm just taking it as it as it comes.”
The royalty and streaming business model is a relatively new innovation in the long history of the mining industry and is becoming more mainstream, as evidenced by Tether's choice to deploy mining capital through royalties rather than other mining business models.
“the royalty and streaming business model, which is, you know, relatively new innovation in the in the long scheme of uh or sorry, in the long arc of the mining industry's history, that is becoming more mainstream because it's really fascinating of all the different companies, all the different business models that Tether chose to deploy their first capital into the mining space. They went royalty and streaming.”
The digital wallet meeting physical metal demand has been an ongoing debate for 8+ years that never really made sense or clicked because of fundamental barriers, but Tether's investment potentially changes this dynamic.
“this ongoing debate between the physical market and the digital world has been ongoing, you know, since you and I have known each other here, Matt. You know, going on eight years now... when is the digital wallet going to meet the physical demand for the metal? And and people have tried, companies have tried, and it's just never really made much sense to me.”
The S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent 7 tech stocks) is essentially flat on the year while the overall S&P is up, indicating market concentration and suggesting the rally is not broad-based.
“the S&P 493 absent absent of big seven is basically flat on a year.”
The market has been skeptical of the 50% copper tariff threat, as evidenced by the spread between COMEX and LME copper prices remaining at only 23-24%, suggesting traders do not believe the tariff will be implemented.
“the market is kind of in your camp though. They're skeptical. Like if you look at the spread between the ComX and the LME price, it's still just less 24%... like 23 24%. So the the general or I guess the market is in disbelief that this will actually occur”
The medianhouse price in the U.S. is now unaffordable to an extent it hasn't been in the last half century, indicating a structural change in asset affordability.
“the median house price in the US which as I showed today in the chart is is unaffordable to an extent it hasn't been in the last half a century.”
The U.S. currently produces domestically 60% of its refined copper demand, meaning 40% must be imported; if Hayden is turned back online, this could rise to 70% domestic production, leaving a 30% gap for full self-reliance.
“the US already produces domestically 60% of its refined copper. So, we're only dealing with 40% 40% um of uh in terms of of imports. Um I think if Hayden is turned back online, that will allow 70% of US copper demand to be satisfied uh domestically. And then there's a gap of 30% if the US wants to get up to 100% 100% self-reliance.”
For copper tariff beneficiaries to remain good investments, their business cases must work at $425-450 copper (near current prices) rather than being dependent on the tariff premium that would bring prices to $550+.
“if I were in any of these investments, I would want to make sure that my thesis didn't didn't hinge on this 50% tariff being in in play for the next the next, you know, 3 or 4 years. Um, so if you're looking at a company like Arizona Snoren, for instance, um, or or one of the names mentioned, make sure it works at, you know, 450 or 425 copper, which is closer to where the LME price is is trading.”
Oil market analogy: when geopolitical premiums spike (like the 12% move when U.S. bombed Iran), the premium often fades within days, potentially leaving copper similarly vulnerable to fade if the tariff threat is withdrawn.
“I just reminisced a little bit of two weeks ago in the oil market. The geopolitical premium sends barrels of oil up, you know, 12% or whatever it was and it hits what, $77 a barrel. US drops a bunch of bombs in Iran and by Monday, Tuesday, it's it's like back to where it was at 65. I mean like and I just kind of wonder, okay, is it possible we see the same move in the copper copper market just based on this that if you see like a big spike and then a quick fade back to where we were”
Respecting individual capital allocation responsibility has always been paramount in investing, but in recent years this requirement became less critical because anything people bought went up.
“And you know, we all have to take responsibility for our investments and that responsibility uh has always been paramount. But in the last little while, you could get away with not taking it. You could get away with doing things because someone says it was a good idea or you had a tip or you got a feeling that X is going to go up, Y's going to go up and it didn't really matter to you what the company did.”
The intersection of crypto-native capital (Tether) and physical mining assets (royalties, gold) is significant and causes mainstream investors and generalist macro observers to 'perk up' and pay attention, suggesting this is a pivotal moment in capital flow dynamics.
“I know I had a conversation with uh a good friend...more generalist macro guy...he said, 'Listen, I think this is so new and it's so new it has to be important'...as this general, he's not necessarily a mining guy...he said, 'That's interesting. That piqus my interest. Tell me more.'...just that alone having this moment where people it causes people to kind of perk up a little bit and start paying attention I think is incredibly significant.”
Late-stage U.S.-based copper development projects that produce copper cathode (rather than concentrate) are clear beneficiaries of the 50% copper tariff proposal, as tariffs apply to imports of concentrate but not domestic cathode.
“I mean, there's definitely some winners uh that that crop up immediately to mine. um kind of first and foremost would be these later stage um US-based uh development plays... that's that's one group that's a clear beneficiary.”
Tether is generating $3-4 billion per quarter in excess cash from its stablecoin products and is deploying this excess capital through an investment vehicle (Tether Investments) to acquire hard assets; this is not money being used to back the stablecoin but rather an independent investment fund.
“Tether's generating $3 to4 billion per quarter on its various stable coin products. They're just raking in the cash. And the vehicle that Tether used uh called Tether investments should be thought of as an investment vehicle for Tether to in essence deploy the excess cash that they're that they're turnurning out.”
Tariffs are difficult to predict and invest around; investors should focus on the underlying fundamentals and durability of the business rather than attempting to trade tariff policy announcements.
“if you are if you are trying to um quote unquote invest around the tariffs, you're making the world way harder for yourself than you need to.”
America's fiscal situation has been steadily undermined by both Democratic and Republican administrations (Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump again) not to destroy it deliberately but to keep the economic party going or stop the wheels from falling off.
“America's fiscal situation has been steadily undermined by Obama, by Trump, by Biden, by Trump. again, not necessarily because they think, hey, let's undermine the fiscal strength of America, but let's either keep the party going or stop the wheels falling off and this is how we do it.”
Trump stated he is considering a 50% tariff on copper, causing the copper price to spike 17% and creating the largest single-day move in the copper price since at least 1968 when records began.
“the move we saw on copper yesterday, 20% move at its peak. I think it ended up closer to 10% on the day, but that is the largest single day move in the copper price going back all the way to at least 1968 where these repers records are first kept.”
Elemental Altus stock is up 75% year-to-date and up 35% from the Tether investment announcement, placing it in the top 3-4 performing royalty names.
“the market reaction has been very positive in the aftermath of the deal. I think as of yesterday they were up 35% um off of the back of the the Tether investment and if you look at their year-to- date performance, you know, Elemental is up close to 75%. So, it's in the top three or four, you know, highest performing or best performing royalty names year to date.”
Based on conversations with shareholders and CEO Fred Bell, Tether's most likely intention is to be supportive long-term shareholders helping Elemental grow on a deal-by-deal basis, though option five is not mutually exclusive with opportunistic M&A and one-off co-investments.
“based on hours of conversations I've had with with shareholders and folks close to the deal, including CEO Fred Bell, you know, my sense is that option five is is ultimately what's occurring here. These are these guys are going to be supportive long-term shareholders to help Elemental grow the business on a deal-by-deal basis.”
Jim Rickards claimed (in a panel with Grant Williams) to have worked with the Trump transition team and stated that the Trump administration has an incredibly complex 3D chess plan with tariff flip-flopping as a deliberate strategy, not chaos.
“we had a panel last night um uh which I was on and Jim Rickards was on it and you know, Jim's a very smart guy and Jim's got a lot more access than I'll ever have and I I'm glad he's got it, not me, frankly. But, you know, he he said that he'd worked with a Trump transition team and he was adamant that, you know, the Trump um administration have an incredibly complex almost 3D chess plan and this is all part of the plan. All the flip-flopping and backwards and forwards with tariffs and extensions and non-extensions and he was adamant that this was all part of the plan. It's a brilliant plan. His words, not mine.”
The Hayden smelter (also known as the Asarco smelter), owned by Grupo Mexico and mothballed for decades, is likely to be fast-tracked back into production due to tariff incentives.
“There's actually a third smelter that's been mothballled, I believe, for a couple decades, definitely for quite some time. That's owned by Groupo Mexico. Um and it's the Hayden smelter, also known uh by some folks as the Asarco smelter. And so I I think that's certainly going to be fasttracked uh back back into production pretty quickly here.”
Oil's recent geopolitical premium illustrates spike-and-fade dynamics: a ~12% rise to about $77/barrel on Iran tensions reversed back to roughly $65 within days after US strikes, raising the possibility that copper could similarly spike on tariff news and quickly fade to a still-healthy market around historically strong price levels.
“two weeks ago in the oil market. The geopolitical premium sends barrels of oil up, you know, 12%... and it hits what, $77 a barrel. US drops a bunch of bombs in Iran and by Monday, Tuesday, it's... back to where it was at 65... is it possible we see the same move in the copper copper market”
The MJG portfolio is 35% weighted toward copper (the highest single metal weighting), but Guyger is not chasing the recent movers like Arizona Sonoran or Ivanho Electric; instead he is holding earlier-stage heavy Swiss copper exposure.
“the MJG portfolio I mean we're 35% weighted towards copper so it's our it's our highest single waiting by by metal. Um, but I'll also say that our US-based copper exposure, our earlier stage names, so we've not caught the move flush with the Arizona Sonorans or the Ivanho Electrics of the world. Um, I'm not I'm not chasing um th those names.”
Matt's Elemental/Tether investor letter generated 'pretty overwhelming' feedback from both mining specialists (60% of list) and generalist investors (40%), indicating the deal resonates with broader audience.
“I have about a 2,000 person distribution list and maybe 60% of those folks on the list are mining specialists or mining focused and the other 40% generalist. And the amount of feedback that I've gotten on that on that piece in particular has been pretty pretty overwhelming.”
The recent wave of M&A and consolidation activity in the junior royalty space—including Sandstorm/Horizon Copper, Origin/Triple Flag deal for $420 million, and Tether's investment in Elemental Altus—represents a long-awaited shift after 2-3 years of a sleepy sector.
“folks like myself have been calling for consolidation within the royalty space for 2 to three years at this point and it's been such a sleepy sector but I mean you hit on a lot of the key points here just in the past 90 days we had the origin deal with triple flag $420 million takeover”
Mike Green has suggested we may be starting to see a plateau in passive fund inflows, a signal worth watching closely given the unprecedented proliferation of passive funds, ETFs, and leveraged products that did not exist in 1980s Japan.
“Mike Green, your friend Mike Green has talked about maybe we're starting to see a plateau of funds coming into some of these... It's very interesting to hear Mike say that Mike saying that people should be listening.”
The royalty/streaming sector has been a sleepy space for which consolidation has been predicted for two to three years, and the recent wave of deals—Triple Flag's $420 million Orogen takeover for the Silicon 1% NSR, the Sandstorm/Horizon Copper transaction, and the Tether/Elemental stake—suggests that long-anticipated consolidation is now arriving.
“folks like myself have been calling for consolidation within the royalty space for 2 to three years at this point and it's been such a sleepy sector but I mean you hit on a lot of the key points here just in the past 90 days we had the origin deal with triple flag $420 million takeover”
Guyger has been a long-term shareholder of Elemental (originally through its predecessor Altus Strategies since 2018) and has written about it in every MJG investor letter since 2021, indicating deep conviction in the holding.
“we've been shareholders. Well, technically we were shareholders of Altus Strategies going all the way back to 2018... I've been writing about uh Altus and then Elemental Altus once the merger occurred and every MJG investor letter going I think all the way back to to 2021 if I'm not mistaken.”
Jim Rickards, who worked with the Trump transition team, claims the administration's tariff flip-flopping is part of a brilliant, deliberate '3D chess' plan, but Williams sees only chaos and observes that other nations' view of America is changing in ways that, unlike in the past, may now matter.
“he said that he'd worked with a Trump transition team and he was adamant that... the Trump um administration have an incredibly complex almost 3D chess plan... I don't see that at all. I see chaos, right?”
The one big beautiful bill is designed to keep asset prices up, keep corporate profits high, and give another leg into the next cycle, primarily benefiting people with assets and corporations while arguably doing little for the lower class.
“the purpose of the bill to keep assets up, to keep corporate profits high, give, you know, another leg into a next cycle, I think that's pretty obvious.”
Elemental Altus is up roughly 35% in the immediate aftermath of the Tether investment and close to 75% year-to-date, placing it among the top three or four best-performing royalty names of the year.
“as of yesterday they were up 35%... off of the back of the the Tether investment and if you look at their year-to- date performance... Elemental is up close to 75%. So, it's in the top three or four... best performing royalty names year to date.”
The Fed explicitly stated that tariff extensions would not occur past August 1st, but the market is unclear and will find out final policy around July 31st, indicating ongoing uncertainty about final tariff policy.
“we saw something today about they're not going to get extended past August the 1st. It's the latest thing. I I mean, who knows? We'll we'll know on >> July 30th. 1st, July 31st probably.”
MJG (Matt Guyger's fund) has six of its holdings represented at the Boca Raton Rural Investment Symposium, representing roughly one-third of the portfolio.
“we have six of our holdings in attendance at this conference which is a pretty good hall for a single for a single uh conference. That's a good third of our portfolio.”
We're in what feels like a bull market for mining, evidenced by strong attendance and many new faces at the Rule Symposium.
“it kind of feels like we're in a bull market. So, a lot of people here, a lot of new faces.”