Lobo Tiggre on Which Commodities He Likes + Minaurum Gold CEO Interview
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In this video, I spoke with Lobo Tiggre and Minaurum Gold.
Timestamps 00:00 Introduction 01:30 What is Lobo Tiggre buying right now? 09:15 Lithium 11:30 Nickel 13:10 Lithium stocks 16:45 Cobalt 18:10 Manganese 18:30 Iron & phosphate 22:00 Graphite 24:30 Aluminium 30:30 Steel 34:30 Copper 39:00 When is the time to buy? 41:20 Tin 43:40 Uranium 48:50 Uranium stocks 51:30 Rare Earth Elements 55:30 Tungsten 58:00 Is Lobo's portfolio making money? 01:00:42 VERY IMPORTANT WARNING 01:05:42 Minaurum Gold (TSX-V: MGG) Company Overview 01:13:16 Minaurum Gold (TSX-V: MGG) CEO Interview
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Lobo Tiggre argues that most industrial metals and battery metals face near-term downside risk due to recession pressures, but copper, oil, and uranium offer asymmetric upside if either a hard landing is followed by fiscal stimulus or if 'no landing' is correct; Daryl Raider presents Minorum Gold's Alamos project as a de-risked, high-grade epithermal silver-gold-polymetallic discovery in a permitted, historically-mined district that can deliver a maiden resource by year-end and scale to 100+ million ounces.
- Tiggre's binary framework: if the market's 'no landing' narrative is wrong, copper and oil become 9-10 buys; if it's right and fiscal dominance dominates, same outcome. Most other metals (lithium, nickel, cobalt) face supply gluts and remain 1-5 until capitulation clarity.
- Minorum's Alamos project: 8+ years of drilling (soon 60k meters), permitted for underground production, averaging 315 g/t silver over 100+ drill holes with infill drilling raising grades, maiden resource expected Dec 2024, and a path to 100M+ ounces across 26+ veins in a 4,000-hectare permitted area within an historically-producing district.
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LFP batteries (lithium-iron-phosphate with no nickel) are becoming competitive with NMC batteries in range and charging, are safer, cheaper, and increasingly adopted by automakers, which reduces nickel demand but supports lithium demand since LFP batteries still use lithium.
“the lfp batteries which have no Nickel in them have been getting better and better the latest versions of these are on par on terms of range and charging as the nickel ones and they're safer they don't catch fire so easily and they're cheaper so it's the the you know while this is happening the market like while we're waiting for clarity in the economy the auto sector is increasingly moving towards the non-nickel batteries”
Aluminum is not attractive for junior investors because it requires massive amounts of cheap electricity to process, so deposits without adjacent hydroelectric power or similar low-cost power sources have poor economics, and only large majors (Rio Tinto, BHP) can develop aluminum mines profitably.
“the aluminum is so expensive to process huge amounts of electricity required to produce those aluminum ingots so if you're not next to a big hydropower Dam the the off-take of which is not already sold to other customers right or some big source of of inexpensive power uh you know the economic challenge goes way up for that deposit”
Graphite deposits vary significantly in quality (flake size, impurities) due to natural variation in mined material versus synthesized graphite, meaning not all graphite is fungible like copper—each deposit requires extensive testing to determine end-use suitability.
“the form of the graphite comes out of the ground if you're mining it instead of producing it um is very um inconsistent and the the degree of impurities the size of the flakes of the graphite make a big difference generally big flake is better um but it takes a lot of testing”
Rare earth elements (REEs) are controlled by China's political decisions, not pure market forces—China can restrict exports to squeeze the West, or drop prices to bankrupt competitors, then raise prices again to consolidate control, making REEs a political bet rather than a commodity play.
“the prices are not really driven by pure Market forces they're driven by political edict out of China if Gallum goes up because China restricts exports they can unrestrict that and why would they do that if they're try to put the squeeze on the west well because if they make prices tank they bankrupt the companies that went into gallium right bankrupt them and then you you raise the prices again and you make more”
National average unemployment statistics can be misleading if there is high regional variation, such as areas with very high unemployment and areas with low unemployment, because averaging masks the actual distribution of economic stress and creates false consensus.
“if you you look at like unemployment numbers and you see areas that have high unemployment and then you took look at the national average and it looks like everything's fine... this is I think not a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory this is just statistics and it's why I think a lot of these National statistics are so misleading”
High prices cure high prices: lithium and nickel markets responded to elevated prices with both supply growth and demand destruction, and similar dynamics will repeat—high prices for any commodity trigger supply growth that eventually crashes the market back down.
“high prices cured high prices uh the market did respond to high price in both cases high prices cured high prices”
Uranium is recession-resistant and has been sideways to up during 3 of the last 4 recessions (with 2008 being the only down period, but uranium had already peaked in 2007 before the recession, so the decline was unrelated to recession itself).
“if you look at uranium over the last recessions the last four recessions uranium has been sideways to up in three of four of them and the one it was down was 2008 and uranium had peaked in 2007 was already on its way down so arguably had nothing to do with a recession”
If fiscal dominance (large deficit spending despite strong economy narrative) prevents a hard landing, the alternative outcome is still a reflationary boom fueled by money helicopters and easy money, which would be bullish for copper and oil regardless.
“my hard Landing scenario wasn't years of recession it was realization send out the free money and the easy money and then off to the races again if that's been done preemptively then we may not get the hard Landing but we still get the Off to the Races part which is where we're going to answer your question”
September is historically the most unreliable month for U.S. labor statistics due to shifts from summer-time economy to fall/school year (teachers returning to work, end of summer travel), producing the biggest revisions historically—so one positive September jobs report does not overturn a months-long trend.
“September is usually the most unreliable month for Labor Statistics because it's that it's when the US switches from the summertime economy to the fall and you know teachers go back to work there's a lot of changes going on in the US Labor Market in September... it's the most unreliable... it's the end of the holiday summer holiday travel season there's a lot of changes there and it's just one that has historically produced some of the biggest revisions so this isn't tinfoil hat Lobo going on right this is Bloomberg's mainstream Guy saying this”
Iron and steel prices spiked on Chinese stimulus announcement but quickly fell back when reality set in that China has announced intentions but taken no concrete actions, and irrational exuberance over stimulus is trading ahead of actual execution
“iron did respond to the announcement you know the big announcement from China last week... and then reality set in... they haven't done anything yet they've announced an intention... even even if they do do something you know what will it be... there's been a spade of headlines this week... China's stocks are tanking and iron is down again because this irrational exuberance over China stimulus has met reality”
If capitulation occurs or the no-landing scenario plays out, copper and oil should be bought immediately at current levels, as they are the clear winners in any reflationary scenario.
“what I would buy right now would be copper and oil stocks no question... I wouldn't even hesitate I would after we got off this interview if I was convinced of that today I would look for the best opportunities in Copper and oil now while both are still relatively on sale”
Lithium is rated 9-10 on the contrarian scale because EV demand is not going away regardless of subsidies, and lithium will remain the dominant battery technology in the 1-2 year timeframe relevant to commodity cycles, making it a strong asymmetric bet if the recession ends.
“I put that at pretty close to a nine or 10 I do think that there's a lot of eve eve haters out there and yes as an libertarian I hate subsidies and I don't like the way EVS have been pushed down the throats of the public around the world but again what like it or not doesn't matter as an investor I have to look at the trends they're they're not going away”
One positive jobs report overturning a trend of accelerating upward-curving unemployment and mainstream financial media treating this single data point as proof there is no recession problem and American exceptionalism is alive, ignoring 27 other indicators, is irrational exuberance not supported by the data.
“it's just crazy to get one blowout jobs report and suddenly everybody's talking no Landing again... I mean this is just crazy even if I was on team Biden or something like that but still rational you know I would say well this is one data point like there's this trend of accelerating upward curving unemployment and we've had one positive jobs report that that doesn't undo the whole context”
When investing in exploration plays, if a company presentation spends more time talking about commodity market bullishness than about the deposit's actual characteristics, metallurgy, and economics, that is a red flag and a reason to pass on the investment.
“if any company presentation spends more time talking about the market making the case for silver graphite whatever it is then about their deposit that's a red flag right they're distracting you with how wonderful the Outlook is for Titanium or whatever and they're not telling you anything about their Metallurgy run the other way”
Copper has better supply-demand fundamentals than many other battery metals, making it a more attractive cyclical play for speculators, and copper tends to outperform when the broader economy recovers.
“copper does have better Supply demand fundamentals better from from our perspective of speculators”
Car manufacturers (like Tesla) acquiring junior mining companies or exploration deposits would be economically destructive because mining is a fundamentally different business requiring different expertise, and such vertical integration creates negative value
“if and if that did happen that would be a reason to sell the car company or whoever making that decision it's a completely different business... I just thought it would be a horrible idea for Tesla to get into the actual business of mining it's not what they do they're a tech company not a miner”
Minorum has secured long-term community agreements (ACOs) covering exploration through exploitation, is negotiating 25-year extensions at fixed annual costs, has located water sources (including from historic workings), and is in process of securing explosives permissions—these are de-risking activities typically done after resource definition but done pre-resource by Minorum to create continuity and reduce later bottlenecks.
“we have two AOS one municipality on the project um we're going to have a news release on it but we're just we're in the process of trying to negotiate 25 your extensions that cover exploration through exploitation... water is always something yet to be cognizant in Mexico it is a drier area... we've located areas that have good concentrations of water... on the explosive side... the communities and us and we have a sort of a plan there”
Cobalt is more vulnerable than nickel to the shift from NMC to LFP batteries because nickel has broader industrial applications beyond batteries, whereas cobalt is primarily niche-market dependent, so losing battery demand is more existential for cobalt.
“Cobalt is more vulnerable because nickel...it's used in so many things...Cobalt not so much it's a smaller Market it's more Niche so The Disappearance of a big use case is a much bigger impact...those same batteries that don't use nickel they don't use Cobalt either”
Minorum is strategically positioned south of Mexico's third-largest copper mine (Piedra Fueche, Selaus family) and within well-developed mining jurisdiction with major highway access and existing labor force, supporting potential mine development feasibility
“we are directly south of Mexico's third largest open pit copper mine the pitter Fus mine that's owned by the selaus price family privately owned in Mexico big mine in all likelihood our vein system is plumbed by a copper pfy... we have a major highway that runs through the project you have the labor force that's operating at Mexico's third largest open bit copper mine to the north of us a lot of that labor force lives on the Alamos project in the communities”
Chinese stimulus focused on real estate turnover (existing inventory sales) rather than new construction, which means it won't drive demand for new copper pipes, aluminum transmission lines, or rebar for new buildings, limiting stimulus impact on industrial metals
“I have seen data saying that the impact on the real estate market in China has not been to stimulate new construction but to stimulate turnover of existing inventory... that doesn't create more demand for copper pipes or you know aluminum transmission lines or you know rebar for buildings”
Minorum previously held additional projects (Taviche, Bierú) but is now focusing capital on core assets (Alamos, Santa Marta, Orero, Lone Mountain) and pursuing JVs or option deals on non-core projects to reduce holding costs, which in Mexico can approach $1 million per year in taxes and administration just to maintain claims in good standing.
“one of our biggest issues has been in Mexico is our holding cost which falls under our GNA um... our tax bill in Mexico was approaching a million dollars perom just to hold the projects... we've lowered by dropping some claims and now we're in talks to do some JVS and and lower that dollar amount significantly more”
Minorum's management team includes multiple mine builders with track record of bringing projects to production (Daryl Raider: Impact Silver, Defiance Silver; Peter McGaw: Coeur founder; David Medcalf: K92 president), providing operational credibility versus pure geologists
“I've been involved in numerous mins being put into production down in Mexico... part of the process is you know when you have a major come they're not just interested... they want to see long-term Community agreements they want to see real estate acquired... we've put together Minds before... Peter mgaa Ruben Padilla on the board David medc you know the president of K92 is on our board”
Peter McGaw's involvement with Lone Mountain Nevada is strategic because he is recognized expert on CRD systems (served as technical advisor to Hecla's Ruby Hill deposit in Battle Mountain-Eureka Trend) and can de-risk deposit evaluation
“Peter mcgau is basically the professor of crds for the I8 team... Peter was very familiar with the district this is right in the vicinity of Ruby Hill i8s um deposit that they're building a mine at”
Lobo predicts recession denial becomes untenable by end of 2024, triggered by either continued job report disappointments or confirmed CPI inflation, though he acknowledges inability to predict exact catalyst or timing.
“by the end of this year I think the recession denial becomes untenable...I'm gonna stick with by the end of this year I think the recession denial becomes untenable and if they don't capitulate then the reality would just be people stop believing them anyway”
Stock consolidations (reverse splits) can be valuable if timed with a major strategic event (e.g., new York main board listing, major silver price surge, acquisition announcement) but are generally destructive if done without catalysts, as they reduce liquidity, limit upside volatility, and attract shorts.
“consolidations can help if there is not only the right it has to be the right time for it I.E you're doing consolidation to get a main board listing... consolidation might help... but right now to be honest our we have a very large contingent of European backers... there's no interest in them doing consolidation”
Niche metals like tungsten and antimony are not investable because even if a major new demand source emerges (e.g., tungsten rods from orbit), by the time investors hear about it and markets react, supplies have already responded and prices are collapsing.
“you you mentioned antimony it's critical mineral and so on but it's not rare um and and sure one new source of demand for any one of these Oddball tiny little niche markets can send prices through the roof and we've seen that before but one new source of Supply because it's such Market can send them right back down again”
Minorum's maiden resource maiden resource is expected to show approximately 50 million ounces of pure silver equivalent, and management expects it to drive significant rerating when compared to peer group valuations (other Mexican silver juniors are trading at higher market caps with similar or smaller resources)
“we're hoping that you know we're targeting something close to 50 million ounces pure silver silver equivalent... when we can get around that 100 million ounce Mark... I do think there's potential for another flavor of the day tip Mania here but we don't need it... I think the initial M... will start showing the shareholders a significant return from today's prices”
Currently, private equity groups are more interested in direct investment at the project level rather than equity investment in junior mining companies, due to tough capital markets and lower equity values.
“we had a number of private Equity groups interested in the project... private Equity wanted to invest directly on the project level not on the corporate side not into Equity of monum”
Minorum needed to shift from 300-500m drill hole spacing used for large stepout exploration to ~75m spacing for resource calculation, requiring additional drilling and capital but improving grade estimates as holes converge on actual vein boundaries
“we're probably going to have to get drill hole spacing probably down to about 75 meters for this resource calculation... a lot of these areas we're talking 300 meter apart holes that we now have to shrink into 75 meter sort of Cubes... it's takes us a lot of time and money and extra meters... but at the same time it's raising the grade as we drill because now we're not doing these wild step outs we're actually honing in on the mineralization”
Uranium spot prices will reach triple digits (likely above $100) in 2025 unless a Chernobyl-scale disaster occurs, driven by supply constraints and structural demand from nuclear energy buildout
“I think we see triple digit uranium again next year if not sooner... absent a Chernobyl scale event and I always put that caveat in there... I think we see triple digit uranium again next year if not sooner and I think that does wonders for our stocks”
Minorum Gold has been operating for 13 years, and the Alamos project was acquired in 2016 but required years of permitting and acquisition of fragmented claims to consolidate into a cohesive package—the Legarda family's permitting expertise was crucial to achieving permit status by 2017-2018.
“this project we acquired in 2016... it had not been operated as a mine since prior to the Mexican Revolution and it took the family called the legarda family out of Sonora... they picked up this project... it took years a permitting and acquiring all these jigsaw little pieces of claimes”
Minorum's metallurgical testing on Alamos samples shows gold recovery of 69-96% and silver recovery in mid-90% range with no deleterious elements detected, indicating clean concentrates achievable and no processing complications expected during flowsheet optimization
“Met has recoverability has ranged um strongly especially for gold so from about 69 to sometimes 96% and more... silver is definitely going to be in the 90s probably mid 90% range gold is going to probably be the 90s... all three Labs reported no deletrius elements they reported very clean concentrates”
Uranium spot prices have corrected from $106 down to below $80 over recent months, converging back to a rising long-term trend, and now are ticking up again—this pattern is very bullish because it shows the fundamental support is intact and accumulation is occurring.
“spot uranium came down a long term and they that's where they go they the spot can fluctuate you know above and below but it tends to converge back to long term and longterm is on an upward Trend spot corrected back to long term and now it's going up again all of this is very very bullish to me”
Minorum's Alamos project shows CRD (carbonate-replacement deposit) potential based on relogging historic core, which revealed a 2.5-kilometer-long continuous zone of zinc-rich CRD-style mineralization with strongest results of 3.2% zinc and 1% lead over 3 meters, and 2.2% zinc and 6% lead over 8 meters, indicating a hybrid epithermal-CRD system.
“Rel logging historic core at one of the three main zones of the Alamos project came back outlining a continuous almost 2 and a half kilometer long um zone of zinc ridge crd style mineralization and scarn alteration with the strongest crd drill host to dat showing 3 meters of 3. 2% zinc and 1% lead and close to 8 meters of 2.2% zinc and 6% lead”
Minorum has identified at least three high-grade lead veins bisecting the NE-SW trending main vein zones at depth, and where these lead veins intersect the main silver veins, high-grade silver shoots form—the structural controls are not fully predictable but visible blowouts on surface at four locations provide some targeting guidance for buried shoots.
“there's highgrade lead veins that are bisecting them at depth and typically when these veins bisected at depth that's where you're starting to see these silver shoots occur... those high-grade lead veins are not on Surface they are at depth... there's obviously areas that are covered... thankfully on a lot of the project you can actually see these sort of vein blowouts that you would typically see at the top of a structure you'll see them on Surface so that gives you a bit of an idea and I can think of at least four of them offand”
Minorum does not hold or plan to hold royalties on its projects, avoiding conflicts between management/board personal royalty interests and shareholder interests, keeping the capital structure simple and aligned.
“Royalties do you or any of the other team members personally own any royalties and any of the projects you're involved in now no we don't okay good I like it simple that way”
Raider has been in the mining industry for 25 years, previously founded/led Impact Silver, Intergold Drilling, and Define Silver, has built multiple mines to production in Mexico and South America, and has never consolidated a company or taken a stock split, preferring to see business strategies through from exploration to production.
“I've been working in Mexico for almost 25 years I was part of a group that uh put together a company called impact silver um we also were running an company called intergold drilling down in Mexico and subsequently also formed a company called Define silver... I've been involved in numerous mins being put into production down in Mexico”
Minorum is targeting a maiden resource (NI 43-101 compliant) by end of 2024 (early December or early January at the latest) calculated by independent consultant IMC Group of Tucson, based on approximately 60,000 meters of drilling by completion (currently 42,000+ meters from earlier phases).
“we're aiming for early December if there's going to be a week or two kind of delay which is tough in Mexico at times because they have big holidays especially around Christmas then we may move it to early January but the idea is we're working with IMC consultants and uh arms length group in uh of Tucson they're doing the resource calculation”
Minorum has a large contingent of European high-net-worth and family office investors (described as 'family run funds') who prefer stable long-term holdings and are not active traders, making a stock consolidation (reverse split) strategically unwise because it would reduce trading liquidity and drive away the patient capital base.
“we have a very large contingent of European backers primarily family offices...when you deliver on what you're going to say...they follow you...they're not active Traders...if we consolidate and Shrink that tradable amount I think we're really going to see our liquidity shrink...even at 400,000 300,000 shares a day that to me is a healthy level that you need to be at in order to attract institutional interest”
Lobo Tiggre's average completed trade has returned 55% gains (as of the report card date in 2023), calculated using actual brokerage confirmations of all trades executed, not theoretical models, providing a verifiable track record.
“I'm up uh 30 3 34% now on my current portfolio... the average Traders around 55%... there's a track record link on the bottom of every page... all completed trades no cherry picking”
The Alamos project averages 315 grams per ton silver over 100+ drill holes, with drill-intercept widths averaging 2 meters, and contains 26+ separate vein targets located within a 4,000-hectare permitted underground-mining area, all within a historically-producing district that yielded 200+ million ounces of silver before 1870.
“the average grade of last 103 holes was 315 G per ton silver... the average width of the veins that contained that average 3155 G is actually about 2 m... we have about 38,000 hectares at Alamos the historical Camp had 20000 million ounces mined out of three S I should say four separate mines... we have production permitted for underground mining purposes about 4,000 hectares”
Minorum holds approximately 5% insider ownership (management and board), with Raider personally holding a couple million shares from inception ~12-13 years ago at an average cost of 30-35 cents, making him slightly underwater on that core position, with upside motivator being investor returns and the large European family-office contingent that has followed Raider from prior companies.
“I have a couple of million shares that I've had for probably right the beginning about 12 13 years ago the average cost of that would have been in the 30 35 Cent range so I'm a little underwater on that... my greatest motivator is all the people friends long time investors that I brought into the company and into the story”
Raider personally holds 80% of his investment portfolio in silver and silver-backed securities, having benefited from multiple silver runs (2002-2007, 2009-2011, 2016, with 5-1000% returns), and views this exposure as justified by historical cycles and his expertise in the sector.
“I probably have too much in my portfolio with silver probably about 80% of it um but you know I've been through a couple big silver runs back between 2002 to 2007 you know everything I had with silver went up five to 100 to 1,000%”
Daryl Raider holds approximately 5 million options as part of management compensation package, providing additional upside exposure to stock price appreciation beyond base shareholding
“but along with that I have a good options package at about 5 million options”
Central banks of the UK and Switzerland are actively considering gold reserves for systemic risk hedging, and there is broad expert consensus that gold remains a critical monetary reserve asset, supporting long-term gold price resilience.
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