Claims

4 claims in “international relations”

Appeasement Is Rational Response to Power Shift

Appeasement is just what we call compromise when we're giving something away in response to a rising power: when a nation dramatically rises in wealth and influence and claims a sphere of influence, the rational move for others—because war is costly—is to concede, as Russia did when a weak post-Soviet state watched the U.S. expand NATO to its borders, and as the West later did over Crimea, Syria, and Kazakhstan when Russia re-asserted its strength.

causalinternational relations — Chris Blattman

pending

Putin Is Not Like Western Observers

A common error in understanding the conflict is assuming Vladimir Putin thinks and values like a Western public intellectual; he is a former KGB officer shaped by Soviet-era grievances with different attitudes toward violence, honor, territory, and nation, so reasoning from 'I wouldn't have done that' badly misunderstands his calculus.

factualinternational relations — Russ Roberts

pending

India-Pakistan Missile Misfire Stayed Peaceful

Two weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, India accidentally launched a cruise missile at Pakistan and yet calm ensued and the event was barely reported, illustrating that even nuclear-armed rivals with a history of skirmishes have no interest in launching war and routinely defuse incidents that could have escalated.

factualinternational relations — Chris Blattman

pending

Sanctions and War-Crime Charges May Block Peace

Western actions may inadvertently make peace less attractive to Putin: decentralized sanctions, corporate boycotts, and lost oil/gas markets that won't easily reverse turn sanctions from conditional repression into unconditional costs, while formal war-crimes proceedings raise the risk of extradition or a palace coup if he steps down, so the absence of a 'golden bridge to retreat' increases the private incentive to keep fighting.

causalinternational relations — Chris Blattman

pending