Gary Klein
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Psychologist studying naturalistic expert decision-making
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Claims by Gary Klein (20 of 44)
Organizations can increase insight adoption by creating appeal mechanisms so that if someone believes an idea has been rejected prematurely, they can request re-examination by a different part of the organization, rather than allowing single gatekeepers to kill promising ideas.
Decision journals—written records of decisions including the decision itself, goals, prime information used, what's being noticed, what's driving the decision, and affected stakeholders—create a record of thinking at the time, allowing retrospective learning about missed cues and unconsidered goals.
Most people use surface characteristics to assess credibility—confidence, upright posture, absence of qualifiers—but these are poor predictors of actual expertise; using qualifiers like 'I think but I'm not sure' is read as disqualifying, even though genuine experts often express appropriate uncertainty.
In a petrochemical plant study, two promoted workers were run through decision-making exercises: the confident one who impressed everyone actually lacked understanding of critical plant dynamics, while the tentative one who worried colleagues actually had deep causal knowledge; the tentative one was cleared for panel operations while the confident one was sent back for another year of training.
There are three distinct pathways to insight: connection pathways where ideas are combined without contradicting existing beliefs (e.g., Darwin connecting population growth to evolution); contradiction pathways where anomalies trigger investigation without requiring belief change (e.g., the police officer noticing ashes flicked in a new BMW); and correction pathways where flawed beliefs must be unlearned through curiosity about anomalies.
The pre-mortem is a structured 20-minute exercise conducted at project kickoff where the team assumes the project has failed catastrophically, spends 2 minutes individually writing reasons for failure, then shares non-redundantly around the room, and finally spends 2 minutes identifying what each person can do to reduce risk.
Individual-level strategies to maximize insight include being deliberately insight-focused rather than defensively recoiling from unexpected information, celebrating one's own small insights throughout the day, attuning oneself to insights others have, and cultivating curiosity by wondering 'what does that mean?' for a few seconds rather than recoiling.
Experienced leaders often reject innovations because they remember past failures with similar ideas, but the context may have changed—technology may have matured, world situation may have shifted—making ideas that previously failed now viable, yet experienced leaders' scar tissue from past failures blocks adoption.
Experience and expertise are different—years of experience does not equal expertise because many people do not reflect on their experiences or learn from mistakes; experts are characterized by acute awareness of their own mistakes, which 'eat at them' until they can imagine alternative approaches.
A decision scorecard method of evaluating employees—reviewing major decisions made over the past year, assessing which worked and which didn't, examining the quality of thinking at the time (not retrospectively), and learning from both successes and failures—is less stressful and more educational than traditional objective-based evaluations that become stale.
Organizations cannot simply encourage people to make more mistakes, as the emotional response to mistakes is naturally negative; instead, organizations should create safe spaces where people can learn from mistakes without fear, and leaders can model reflection on their own mistakes.
Pre-mortems work by reversing the usual incentive structure of meetings: in typical kickoff meetings at the end, no one wants to voice problems after hours of planning discussion, but in pre-mortems, demonstrating competence is redefined as surfacing high-quality problems others haven't considered, creating a competition for insights.
Availability bias, representativeness bias, and anchoring bias are actually beneficial heuristics: availability uses relevant experience to guide decisions, representativeness uses similarity to recognize patterns, and anchoring provides a starting point that expertise allows proper adjustment from.
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